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Representing France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium, the North-West European Potato Producers Group (NEPG) warns that farmers may expand potato acreage between 2024 and 2025, posing market risks. French organizations recently advised farmers to align production with industrial demand rather than expanding prematurely. In 2024, the four leading European producers increased their combined potato harvest by 6.9% year-on-year (YoY) to 24.7 million metric tons (mmt). However, rising production costs and declining yields continue to pressure the sector. Internationally, India, China, and Türkiye are intensifying competition in the French fries market. Moreover, the NEPG cautions that unpredictable United States (US) trade policies under the new administration could disrupt frozen potato product exports.
Cyprus potato producers will receive financial aid and compensation for crop losses caused by recent cold weather and hail. Farmers can submit damage declarations via the Agriculture Ministry’s website. A four-step financial support plan has been developed in consultation with potato growers, with further discussions planned with agricultural organizations this week. Farmers in Famagusta and Larnaca struggled to protect their crops from frost, resorting to overnight watering, but significant losses have still been reported. In Paphos, assessments indicate approximately 5,000 acres of potatoes have been affected, with the hardest-hit communities including Mandria, Timi, and Kouklia. Damage evaluations are also underway in Polis Chrysochous, eastern and western Paphos, and semi-mountainous areas between Polemi and Stroumbi.
Potato prices in India have started to decline in W9 after reaching high levels earlier in the season, now trading between USD 6.89 and 12.64 per quintal. While prices remain higher than the 2024 range of USD 2.87 to 6.32 per quintal, farmers are disappointed with the drop. A potato farmer from Babaheri village reported selling his crop for USD 22.75 per quintal earlier this season, but prices have now fallen between USD 8.04 and 11.49 per quintal. With a large portion of the harvest still pending and production costs rising due to higher seed and fertilizer prices, profitability remains uncertain. Farmers are urging the government to increase the secured price under the Bhavantar Bharpai scheme from USD 6.89 to 11.49 per quintal to mitigate losses if prices decline further. The scheme will compensate farmers when market prices fall below the secured price.
After reaching record highs in fall 2024, potato prices in Ukraine began declining in mid-Feb-25 due to increased imports and deteriorating storage quality. However, experts expect prices to rebound in Mar-25. Potato prices surged in Oct-24 due to limited supply from poor yields, with commercial farms losing up to 50% of their crops despite using plant protection measures. While prices are unlikely to drop significantly, experts do not foresee sharp spikes either. In Mar-25, analysts predict the average price will stay between USD 0.80 and 0.82 per kilogram (kg), potentially increasing to USD 0.92/kg under a negative scenario. Prices for early-season potatoes arriving in spring will be higher, but they will not reach the extreme levels of USD 1.21 to 1.46/kg that some speculated last fall.
In W9, France’s potato prices declined 2.50% week-on-week (WoW) and 11.36% YoY to USD 0.39/kg. This is driven by abundant supply from the 2024 harvest, which benefited from favorable growing conditions, including adequate rainfall and mild temperatures. According to the National Union of Potato Producers (UNPT), France’s potato production increased to approximately 7.7 mmt in 2024, marking a 12.2% YoY rise and resulting in higher stocks and lower prices. This substantial production growth stemmed from expanded cultivation areas, rising industrial demand, and adaptive farming practices in response to climate challenges. Moreover, weaker export demand from key European markets and increased competition from major producers like Germany and Belgium further pressured prices.
In W9, the Netherlands' potato prices declined 12.50% WoW, 32.26% month-on-month (MoM), and 44.74% YoY. Dutch potato prices fell due to higher-than-expected domestic production and weak export demand. The 2024 harvest in the Netherlands reached 7.2 mmt, exceeding the 6.8 mmt harvested in 2023. This increase was due to a 3% YoY expansion in planted areas and favorable weather conditions during the growing season. At the same time, exports to major buyers like Germany and Belgium fell 10% YoY in Jan-25, reducing demand pressure. Moreover, lower energy costs in early 2025 allowed farmers to release stored potatoes more quickly, increasing supply in the market and leading to a sharp price drop.
In W9, German potato prices remained unchanged WoW but rose 1.61% MoM to USD 0.63/kg. Analysts attribute the sharp price increase over the past month to high demand exceeding supply. According to the Lower Saxony Chamber of Agriculture, processors from neighboring countries continue to increase purchases while domestic contracts are still being fulfilled, leaving few free-market industrial potatoes available. Farmers expect prices to remain high.
In W9, Pakistan's potato prices remained unchanged WoW but declined 50% MoM to USD 0.18/kg. This is primarily due to increased supply from the ongoing harvest season in Punjab, the country’s key potato-producing region. Improved yields and higher acreage contributed to greater market availability, exerting downward pressure on prices. Easing inflation and stable input costs, particularly for fertilizers and fuel, reduced production expenses. This further stabilized prices. Moreover, weaker export demand and improved domestic distribution helped prevent price spikes, keeping the market well-supplied.
In W9, Egypt’s potato prices remained unchanged WoW but dropped 20% MoM and 58.62% YoY, extending the recent downward trend due to increased supply from the ongoing Nile season harvest. Key producing governorates, including Minya, Dakahlia, Beheira, and Menoufia, have contributed to the domestic market surplus, exerting oversupply pressure. Furthermore, weaker export demand and seasonal price fluctuations have accelerated the decline. However, market stabilization could occur in the coming weeks as demand adjusts to shifting supply levels and post-harvest storage reduces immediate market inflows.
The NEPG has warned that increasing acreage between 2024 and 2025 could lead to an oversupply, putting downward pressure on prices. French organizations advised farmers to align production with actual industrial demand instead of prematurely expanding cultivation. Farmers in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Belgium should carefully assess processor contracts, export potential, and storage capacity before increasing planting areas. By matching supply with demand, farmers can avoid price crashes due to overproduction. Strategic planning will help maintain stable prices and protect profitability, especially given the rising production costs and competition from India, China, and Türkiye in the global French fries market.
Ukraine’s potato prices declined mid-Feb-25 due to increased imports and deteriorating storage quality. However, analysts expect a price rebound in Mar-25 under unfavorable conditions. Importers should take advantage of this temporary dip to secure lower-cost shipments before prices stabilize. By importing potatoes at lower prices, traders and buyers can hedge against potential price hikes in Mar-25, ensuring a steady supply while reducing procurement costs. This is particularly important for markets dependent on Ukrainian potatoes following the poor 2024 harvest and storage losses.
Egypt’s potato prices fell in 2025 due to surplus production from the Nile season harvest. Given the oversupply and weak export demand, buyers should negotiate bulk purchases for re-export or processing before storage adjustments stabilize prices. Potential buyers in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa should take advantage of Egypt’s competitive pricing. Sourcing low-cost Egyptian potatoes can enhance profit margins for processors and exporters. This also presents an opportunity to diversify supply chains and secure alternative sources in case of future price spikes in Europe or Asia.
Sources: Tridge, Agropolit, Agropopular, TribuneIndia, PotatoPro, Wochen Blatt
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