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Kazakhstan is launching a USD 20 million initiative to establish its first olive plantations, with plans to cultivate 100 hectares (ha) by 2025. The project began in 2023 with pilot plantings in the Zhetysu, Turkestan, and Mangistau regions, where over 6,000 olive seedlings were planted, achieving a 99.7% survival rate. The project aims to expand by importing seedlings from Spain and Türkiye, with the first harvest expected in five years. The Agriculture Minister emphasized the initiative’s strategic importance in boosting Kazakhstan’s food processing sector. Meanwhile, the Global Olive Corporation President outlined plans to plant up to one million trees, build an olive oil production facility, and establish a nursery. The project will yield 150 thousand metric tons (mt) of olives annually, producing up to 30 thousand mt of olive oil. The Ministry of Agriculture actively supports the venture with a Memorandum of Understanding and a Road Map guiding its implementation.
Spanish olive oil producers warned they may halt exports to the United States (US) after Donald Trump imposed a 20% tariff on all European Union (EU) products. As the world’s largest olive oil producer, Spain relies heavily on the US, its top non-EU market, which imported 113.42 million metric tons (mmt) of Spanish olive oil in 2024, valued at over USD 1.14 billion, about 35% of the US market. This marked a significant increase from 2023 when exports were worth USD 727.28 million. The Spanish Association of Olive Oil Exporters stated the new tariffs would raise prices for American consumers. The Spanish Prime Minister condemned the tariffs as a “unilateral attack” and criticized the move as outdated protectionism unfit for modern global challenges.
If the US government imposes tariffs on European olive oil, American consumers will likely bear the brunt more than Spanish exporters, said the director of the Spanish Association for the Industry and Commercial Export of Olive Oil (ASOLIVA). Spain produces about 1.4 mmt of olive oil annually and exports around 180 thousand mt to the US, covering roughly 40% of America’s olive oil imports. The industry plans to evaluate the potential effects and how to implement the tariffs if they take effect.
Olive oil prices in Spain continued falling in W14, dropping 0.24% week-on-week (WoW) and 2.31% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 4.22 per kilogram (kg), reflecting a sharp 50.29% year-on-year (YoY) decline. A robust 2024/25 harvest boosted production by 10 to 15%, creating a supply glut that pushed prices down. The recent 25% US tariff on European olive oil exports also weakened demand from a key export market, intensifying the decline. Although an initial surge in sales temporarily stabilized prices, underlying structural issues such as an aging producer base and low profitability continue to fuel volatility.
In W14, Italian olive oil prices surged by 17.82% WoW, 19.96% MoM, and 13.88% YoY to USD 11.90/kg. This sharp increase is primarily due to a significant decline in domestic production. According to the Italian Institute of Services for the Agricultural and Food Market (ISMEA), the 2024/25 olive oil production is estimated at approximately 224 thousand mt, representing a 32% decrease compared to the previous season's output of over 328 thousand mt. The decline is mainly due to extreme heat and prolonged drought conditions, particularly in southern regions like Puglia and Sicily, which severely affected olive yields. Moreover, the natural alternate-bearing cycle of olive trees contributed to reduced output this season. The combination of decreased supply and sustained global demand has exerted upward pressure on prices, leading to the observed surge in the Italian olive oil market.
In W14, olive oil prices in Greece fell to USD 4.08/kg, representing a 16.39% MoM and a steep 63.67% YoY decline. Despite strong export demand from Italy and Spain and rising production costs, particularly for labor and processing prices, prices continued dropping. Lower carryover stocks from the previous season initially helped stabilize prices. However, the primary driver of the sharp YoY drop is the significant recovery in domestic production following 2024’s drought-induced shortages. While some short-term factors temporarily support prices, the broader trend reflects a market correction as production normalizes and supply conditions improve.
In Tunisia, the price of olive oil reached USD 4.31/kg in W14 from USD 4.35/kg in W13. The price drop in WoW can be due to fluctuations in supply and demand and short-term market adjustments. On the other hand, the MoM price increase is driven by strong export demand, particularly from the EU, US, Canada, and Gulf countries, which helped support higher prices. Moreover, government initiatives like restructuring the National Olive Oil Office (ONH) and offering transport subsidies have improved sector efficiency and global competitiveness. The strategic promotional campaigns and participation in trade events have also bolstered demand, further supporting the price rise.
Spain is heavily reliant on the US for olive oil exports, and the imposition of a 20% tariff could significantly impact its export value. Spanish olive oil producers should diversify their export markets, reducing dependence on the US and mitigating this risk. This could include increasing efforts to enter emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Moreover, strengthening ties with non-EU countries and growing demand for high-quality olive oil, such as China and India, could offer new growth opportunities. A strategic focus on creating partnerships with distributors in these regions, alongside robust marketing campaigns, will ensure a more stable and diversified revenue stream for Spanish producers, reducing the potential for revenue loss due to US tariffs.
Tunisia has seen a positive trend in olive oil prices due to increasing export demand, particularly from the EU, US, Canada, and Gulf countries. To capitalize on this opportunity, Tunisia should focus on enhancing the quality and branding of its olive oil products. Investing in certifications such as Organic or Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) will help differentiate Tunisian olive oil in global markets, attracting premium prices. Moreover, expanding participation in international food fairs and trade events will raise Tunisia’s profile as a high-quality producer. A strong emphasis on traceability and sustainable farming practices will appeal to environmentally conscious consumers, helping increase export value and demand.
Kazakhstan's initiative to establish its first olive plantations is an exciting step toward diversifying its agricultural sector. To ensure the success of this project, it is essential to support farmers with advanced technologies and training programs. Providing expertise in olive cultivation, pest management, and harvesting techniques, especially considering the harsh climate, will help increase yield and ensure the project's success. Moreover, integrating farming solutions, such as precision irrigation and automated harvesting tools, will boost productivity while maintaining sustainable practices. Collaboration with international partners like Spain and Türkiye for knowledge exchange and technology transfer can expedite Kazakhstan’s transition into an olive oil producer, ensuring long-term sustainability and profitability.
Sources: Tridge, English News, Greek City Times
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