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In the 2024/25 season, a bumper yield in Chandpur district, Bangladesh, has caused tomato prices to drop significantly, leading to unusually low market prices. While sellers previously sold tomatoes for USD 0.33 to 0.41 per kilogram (kg), in Apr-25 it was offered as low as USD 0.02 to 0.08 per kg in local markets, with bazaars setting prices as low as USD 0.02 to 0.04 per kg. Farmers feel the impact of this price drop, as they cannot recover their transport costs, prompting many to leave their crops unharvested. Agricultural experts attribute the bumper yield to the fertile soil left behind by recent flooding, but the abundant supply has led to oversupply, causing a significant price decline. Despite higher yields, farmers despair because the market price is too low to cover basic production and transportation costs, causing tomatoes to spoil in the fields.
Tomato prices in Kolar district, Karnataka, have dropped to their lowest levels of USD 0.024 to USD 0.06/kg, forcing many farmers to leave tomatoes unharvested as summer began. Farmers have reported that prices fell for nearly six months, significantly dropping since Feb-25. The year-on-year (YoY) cost of a vegetarian thali has decreased due to the sharp decline in tomato prices, which fell 34% from USD 0.384/kg in Mar-24 to USD 0.252/kg in Mar-25. At the Kolar Agricultural Produce Market Committee (APMC), the selling price for one box (15 kg) of tomatoes ranges from USD 0.36 to USD 2.40. However, the cost of harvesting and transporting tomatoes is USD 0.84 per box, meaning the selling price only covers a portion of the cost, resulting in a loss for farmers. As a result, many farmers have refrained from harvesting their crops, as bringing them to the APMC would incur additional costs, including commission charges.
A similar situation occurred in Chittoor district, Andhra Pradesh, where on March 28, a 15 kg box of tomatoes was priced at USD 1.32, with some boxes as low as USD 0.36, not even covering harvesting costs. These prices are unsustainable for farmers. However, prices will stabilize once exports resume. The price drop is due to increased winter production in southern states, better crop yields, and more land use for cultivation. Moreover, the reduced shelf life of tomatoes has halted exports in recent days. Transporting tomatoes from Kolar to countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, and other South Asian nations takes two to three days, causing the tomatoes to spoil during transit. Additionally, the failure of crops due to tomato yellow leaf curl disease (TYLCV) over the past five years has further reduced overall yields.
The United States (US) will withdraw from a trade agreement with Mexico concerning fresh tomato imports starting July 14. Following the termination of the agreement, most tomatoes imported from Mexico will be subject to a 20.91% antidumping duty aimed at providing a fair market opportunity for American tomato growers. The department emphasized that this move will allow US tomato producers to compete more fairly in the marketplace.
2025)
Mexico's tomato prices decreased by 19.60% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.60/kg in W15, primarily due to a surge in domestic production. Key producing regions like Sinaloa and Baja California experienced favorable weather conditions, which increased yields. This oversupply in the domestic market, coupled with reduced export demand, particularly from the US, exerted downward pressure on prices. Moreover, the 25% tariff on Mexican tomato exports to the US has further contributed to the price decline. The US Commerce Department announced that starting July 14, 2025, most tomatoes imported from Mexico will face a 20.91% duty following the withdrawal from a previous agreement deemed ineffective in protecting domestic tomato producers.
In W15, Morocco's tomato prices experienced a modest increase of 4.26% WoW, rising to USD 0.49/kg from USD 0.47/kg in W14. This uptick is primarily due to supply-demand dynamics. In early 2025, adverse weather conditions, including cold temperatures and irregular rainfall in key producing regions such as Souss-Massa and Agadir, reduced yields and delayed harvests. These disruptions tightened domestic supply chains, contributing to price fluctuations. Moreover, strong export demand from European markets, particularly France and Spain, has intensified competition for available produce. This increased demand from abroad has further strained local supplies, exerting upward pressure on prices. The convergence of weather-induced supply constraints and robust export demand has increased tomato prices during this period.
In W15, Spain's wholesale tomato prices rose by 2.47% WoW to USD 0.83/kg, driven by a 10% reduction in production for the 2024/25 season caused by persistent drought and rising cultivation costs. These factors tightened domestic supply. At the same time, strong export demand from European markets, particularly France and Germany, intensified competition for available produce, pushing prices upward. However, prices fell 18.63% month-on-month (MoM) due to seasonal declines in demand after the peak winter months when tomato consumption is typically higher. Moreover, higher harvest volumes from major producing regions like Almería and Murcia created a market surplus, exerting downward pressure on prices.
Türkiye's wholesale tomato prices increased to USD 1.24/kg in W15, reflecting a 16.98% MoM and 13.76% YoY rise. This surge is primarily due to adverse weather conditions in Feb-25 and Mar-25, including cold temperatures and heavy rainfall, significantly impacting greenhouse production in Antalya, the country's primary tomato-producing region. These conditions have led to decreased yields and elevated prices. Moreover, increased production costs, such as energy and labor, have further contributed to the price hike. Strong export demand, particularly from European markets facing their own supply challenges, has also intensified competition for available produce, exerting additional upward pressure on prices.
In W15, France’s tomato prices surged 14.81% WoW to USD 2.17/kg, driven by tight domestic supply, elevated input costs, and stronger demand from domestic consumers and European buyers. The rise comes amid a 9 to 10% decline in French greenhouse tomato output in the 2024/25 season, mainly due to persistently high energy prices, which have discouraged winter greenhouse production. Furthermore, unseasonably cool temperatures in early spring delayed open-field tomato harvests, exacerbating short-term shortages. At the same time, France saw rising import demand from neighboring countries such as Germany and Belgium, which were also experiencing supply gaps. These combined factors created upward pressure on French wholesale prices, pushing them to one of the highest levels seen in 2025.
Farmers and local processors should explore value-added products such as canned tomatoes, tomato paste, and sauces in regions like Bangladesh, Kolar (India), and parts of Mexico where market prices are extremely low. This strategy could help farmers access more stable and profitable markets while reducing the impact of low fresh tomato prices. By diversifying into value-added products, farmers can avoid market volatility caused by oversupply and declining prices while generating higher margins and reducing post-harvest losses due to spoilage.
Due to the abundance of tomatoes and transportation limitations that cause spoilage in India and Mexico, local governments or cooperatives should invest in cold storage facilities and refrigerated transport systems. Moreover, enhancing logistics networks for faster movement to key export markets can reduce spoilage and make exports more viable. Investing in cold storage and transportation infrastructure will help producers reduce post-harvest losses, increase the volume of marketable tomatoes, and access better prices in high-demand export markets such as the US and Europe.
In Morocco and Spain, where supply issues and high export demand influence domestic prices, producers should diversify export markets beyond traditional European buyers. Developing markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia could help stabilize prices during local oversupply periods or fluctuating demand from Europe. Expanding into diverse export markets will help balance price fluctuations and reduce the dependency on traditional export destinations, stabilizing income for tomato producers during seasonal downturns.
Sources: Tridge, Bloomberg, Breaking The News, The Hindu, Reuters, Outlook Business,
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