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Adverse weather conditions in Brazil have significantly impacted potato production, driving up prices. Intense heat from Feb-25 to Mar-25 reduced yields across multiple regions, while recent rains in the southern states further limited harvesting activities and tightened supply.
As a result, prices for special Ágata potatoes surged 24% year-on-year (YoY) in the São Paulo wholesale market in W15, averaging USD 16.40 per 25 kilograms (kg) bag. The primary driver of this increase is the rainfall in southern Brazil, mainly in Bom Jesus (RS) and Guarapuava (PR), which disrupted harvests earlier in the week. Supplies from these areas, already on the decline, have tightened further. In addition to the southern regions, low yields caused by previous heatwaves continue to affect overall market volumes. Southern Minas Gerais is also seeing reduced availability due to the conclusion of the rainy season harvest.
Meanwhile, demand for potatoes has picked up with the start of a new month and the approach of Holy Week, during which tuber consumption traditionally rises. This seasonal demand, coupled with restricted supply, is contributing to the sharp price increase.
Sinaloa, Mexico, is poised for a record-breaking potato harvest in 2025, with planting surpassing 17 thousand hectares (ha), up 21.15% year-on-year (YoY). Production could exceed 500 thousand metric tons (mt), potentially marking a 75% increase depending on final yields. As of W15 estimates suggest yields of 30 to 31 mt/ha. Around 50 to 60% of the crop is destined for industrial processing by companies, while the rest will supply the domestic fresh market. Prices are expected to exceed USD 0.54 to 0.59/kg on Apr-25. Favorable weather has supported strong crop development, but growers remain alert to the risk of late cold fronts that could affect outcomes.
Ukrainian potato producers are once again slashing prices amid mounting market pressure. A growing oversupply of potatoes is driving this trend, with many local farmers rushing to offload remaining stocks due to rapidly declining storage quality. As of W15, wholesale prices have dropped between USD 0.31 to 0.56/kg, averaging 14% lower week-on-week (WoW). The domestic price decline stems from a supply surge from domestic and imported sources. High-quality Polish potatoes from the 2023 harvest are now widely available and priced similarly to local produce, intensifying competition in the market. Despite the recent drop, potato prices remain about 28% YoY higher than early Apr-24. However, with significant volumes still flooding the market, many Ukrainian farmers anticipate that prices may continue to fall in the coming weeks.
In W15, France's potato prices dropped to USD 0.34/kg, reflecting a 10.53% WoW and 15% month-on-month (MoM) decline. This price drop mainly stems from a sharp increase in domestic supply, as France's 2024 potato harvest hit 7.7 million metric tons (mmt), its highest level in 30 years and a 12.2% YoY rise compared to 2023. The production surge resulted mainly from a notable 11% expansion in planted area, which grew from 158,677 ha in 2023 to 178,900 ha in 2024. Meanwhile, in 2025, projections suggest that France’s potato production will stabilize at around 7.95 mmt, maintaining the output levels of 2024. This sustained supply will meet rising demand from the frozen potato products industry, which continues to grow, especially among younger consumers who favor convenient food options.
In W15, Germany's wholesale potato prices rose by 1.54% WoW and MoM to USD 0.66/kg. This increase is primarily due to delayed planting and harvesting caused by persistent rainfall in early spring, particularly in regions like the Rhineland, Lower Saxony, and Baden-Württemberg. The wet conditions hindered fieldwork, resulting in a scarcity of early potatoes and a tightening supply. Moreover, reduced imports from countries such as Israel, Egypt, and Spain were affected by their production challenges and further constrained the market. Rising production costs, including those for seed potatoes, storage, and energy, also contributed to the price increase.
In W15, Pakistan's potato prices held steady at USD 0.17/kg for the fourth consecutive week, representing a 10.53% YoY decline. This sustained price stability reflects strong production and smooth market dynamics. Farmers in Punjab, the country’s key potato-producing region, actively harvested their crops, injecting large volumes of fresh potatoes into the market. Motivated by last season’s favorable returns, many growers expanded their planting areas, while supportive weather conditions led to higher yields and bolstered overall supply. Stable input costs, particularly for fertilizers and fuel eased producers' financial burden, allowing them to stay profitable even amid lower prices. On the demand side, reduced interest from export markets lowered external demand pressure, keeping more supply within domestic channels. Simultaneously, enhancements in the internal distribution system facilitated the efficient movement of produce across key consumption hubs, helping to maintain balanced market conditions.
In W15, Egypt's potato prices increased by 9.09% WoW to USD 0.12/kg, representing a significant 57.14% YoY decline. The price increase is due to strong export demand, spurred by expanded access to new markets such as Tajikistan and the Balkans and renewed demand in traditional destinations like Spain and the Gulf. Exports to Russia increased, supported by reduced customs duties to curb food inflation. Egypt’s potato exports will grow by 10 to 15% YoY in 2025. However, the surge in supply driven by expanded cultivation areas has outpaced demand, placing downward pressure on domestic prices YoY. Average free-on-board (FOB) prices have dropped to USD 250 to 320/mt, marking a 30 to 40% decline from the previous year.
Ukrainian farmers should invest in improving storage facilities and post-harvest handling techniques to prevent rapid declines in potato quality. This includes adopting better storage technologies and exploring controlled atmosphere storage options to extend the shelf life of potatoes. Furthermore, providing farmers with expert advice on proper post-harvest practices can help manage oversupply more effectively. By preventing quality loss during storage, Ukraine can better manage its potato oversupply, stabilize prices, and prevent unnecessary price reductions during market surpluses.
Egypt should expand its export base beyond traditional markets like Russia and Spain by seeking new opportunities in emerging regions such as Southeast Asia or Africa. Furthermore, Egyptian producers can explore value-added processing, such as frozen or pre-packaged potatoes, to cater to higher-end markets. By broadening its export portfolio and offering processed products, Egypt can mitigate the downward pressure on potato prices caused by oversupply and rising production costs, ensuring better profitability for farmers.
Farmers in Brazil's southern regions, particularly those affected by adverse weather, should improve yield management by incorporating climate-resistant potato varieties and using weather data-driven irrigation and planting schedules. Partnerships with agricultural research institutions can also help develop new techniques to handle unpredictable weather patterns. Improved weather adaptation strategies will help mitigate the impact of adverse weather conditions, stabilizing production and reducing volatility in potato prices, particularly during high-demand periods like Holy Week.
Sources: Tridge, East Fruit, Fresh Plaza, Potatoes News, Potato Pro
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