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The European Union (EU) citrus imports in the 2024/25 season displayed mixed trends across different categories, with orange imports reaching 224 thousand metric tons (mt) in Jan-25, 272 thousand mt in Feb-25, and 342 thousand mt in Mar-25. This represents a moderate increase compared to the five-year average for the same period, although it still falls short of the record pace seen in the 2023/2024 season when imports had already hit 386 thousand mt by Mar-25. South Africa continues to dominate as the primary supplier early in the season.
Orange growers in the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt concluded the 2024/25 season with a total production of 230.87 million 40.8 kilogram (kg) boxes. This marks a 0.65% drop from the initial estimate of 232.38 million boxes on May-24 and a 24.85% decline from the 307.22 million boxes harvested in the 2023/24 season. Growers harvested 37.63 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi followed by 15.60 million boxes of Valência Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, and Alvorada, 74.70 million of Pera Rio, 75.99 million of Valência and Valência Folha Murcha, and 26.95 million of Natal.
Unfavorable weather, including prolonged drought and high temperatures, significantly reduced yields, although a late but substantial fourth bloom helped mitigate losses. Rainfall between May-24 and Aug-24 was 31% below forecasts, while maximum temperatures were 3°C to 4°C above the 1991/20 historical average. From May-24 to Mar-25, the region received just 1,050 millimeters (mm) of rain which was 20% below the historical average of 1,305 mm with severe deficits in Bebedouro and São José do Rio Preto. Despite these challenges, late-season rain supported the fruit development from the fourth bloom. The average fruit weight ended at 159 grams (g), below the initial estimate of 169 g and the 10-year average of 163 g, with an average of 256 fruits per box. Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi averaged 283 fruits per box, other early varieties 257, Pera Rio 253, Valência and Folha Murcha 247, and Natal 252.
Peru’s National Agrarian Health Service (SENASA) is actively expediting export procedures for grapes, lemons, and oranges to Chile by improving phytosanitary conditions. To regulate fresh orange exports from Tacna, the Chilean Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) is drafting a work plan, which both parties will sign soon. This initiative directly supports Tacna’s producers and helps meet the demand of Chilean consumers. Both countries have also established a technical cooperation agreement to strengthen fruit fly control along the border.
The United States (US) and Egypt continue to dominate the orange import market, with the US focusing on high-value navel oranges and Egypt supplying late-season Valencia oranges. American navel oranges maintain strong pricing, currently at USD 60.27 to 63.01 per 23 kilogram (kg) box (#72/88 size). Meanwhile, Egyptian orange prices have declined in W15, though they remain USD 1.39 to 2.09 higher than during the same period last season, reflecting continued robust demand or higher costs year-over-year.
In W15, Spain's orange prices rose by 4.88% week-on-week (WoW) and 7.55% month-on-month (MoM), reaching USD 0.43 per kilogram (kg). The price increase stemmed from tighter domestic supply driven by reduced planting and waning consumer demand, which has discouraged producers over the years. Consumption continues to decline, particularly among younger generations in Spain and key European markets such as the United Kingdom (UK) and the Netherlands. This downward trend was aggravated by limited promotional efforts and a lack of innovation in product formats, which have failed to attract new consumers. Meanwhile, Spanish oranges face intense competition from lower-cost exporters like Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, and Turkey, adding further pressure to market dynamics. Despite weak demand, especially in off-peak periods, tightening supply and rising production costs have caused prices to firm.
In W15, South African orange prices dropped sharply by 16.50% WoW to USD 1.67/kg, down from USD 2.00/kg in W14, marking a 39.49% MoM decline. This price drop resulted from logistical issues, including port delays and infrastructure inefficiencies that disrupted export schedules and caused an oversupply in the domestic market, pushing prices down. Adverse weather conditions also reduced fruit quality, further weakening market value. Despite these short-term challenges, prices surged by 135.21% year-on-year (YoY), driven by rising production costs and strong international demand from Europe and Asia, where South African exporters have been expanding their presence despite ongoing logistical and regulatory challenges.
In W15 2025, Egypt's orange prices plummeted by 55.17% WoW and 45.83% MoM to USD 0.13/kg, primarily due to a combination of factors. The devaluation of the Egyptian pound has made oranges more competitive on the international market, but this has also lowered local prices when converted to USD. Moreover, regional instability, particularly the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea, has disrupted trade routes to key Asian markets, forcing Egypt to rely on the EU, where demand is limited. The oversupply in the domestic market, driven by higher production levels, further exacerbated the price decline as exporters reduced prices to maintain sales.
In W15, US orange prices slightly decreased by 0.99% WoW to USD 1.00/kg due to a combination of factors. The price decline is due to improved domestic production levels, which have increased supply, especially from Florida and California. Favorable weather conditions during the growing season boosted yields, leading to a larger harvest. Moreover, a slight reduction in demand from domestic and international markets, particularly in Europe, has contributed to oversupply. The decrease in export demand has put pressure on prices as producers aim to clear stockpiles ahead of the next season's harvest.
In W15, Italy's orange prices rose by 3.50% WoW, 15% MoM, and 25.45% YoY to USD 2.07/kg. The price increase was due to strong international demand and the successful conclusion of the 2024/25 citrus season. The limited supply from key competitors, particularly Spain, boosted Italian exports, allowing varieties like the Navel VCR, known for their high sugar content and larger calibers, to secure favorable positions in Eastern and Western European markets. While domestic consumption saw a slight dip, the export-driven demand helped sustain prices. Despite weather-related challenges that shortened the harvest window, Italian growers benefited from early market entry and improved fruit quality, ensuring strong prices throughout the season.
To enhance the competitiveness of Peruvian oranges in international markets, particularly in Chile, producers must focus on improving the quality and phytosanitary standards of their citrus fruits. Peru's SENASA should continue working with SAG to streamline export procedures and ensure consistent quality controls. Developing a more efficient phytosanitary certification process can help reduce delays and increase the appeal of Peruvian oranges. Invest in educating farmers on best practices for pest management, early detection of diseases, and handling protocols that maintain fruit quality. Implement stricter quality checks at various supply chain stages to ensure that only the best-quality oranges are exported. This could include establishing test facilities for fruit fly presence and other contaminants.
Spanish orange producers should focus on modernizing their marketing and consumer engagement strategies to attract younger and more health-conscious consumers. With a declining domestic consumption trend, especially among younger generations, Spain should. Leverage social media platforms and influencers to promote orange health benefits, such as their high vitamin C content, and create engaging content that resonates with younger audiences. Introduce new product formats such as easy-to-consume orange juice packs, orange snacks, or even subscription boxes for regular deliveries. This could cater to the busy, health-focused lifestyles of younger consumers. Emphasize sustainability efforts, such as eco-friendly packaging and responsible farming practices, to align with the values of environmentally-conscious consumers. Spanish producers can maintain premium pricing in competitive European markets by addressing health-conscious consumers' needs. This innovation can help rejuvenate interest in oranges and create a lasting consumer base, particularly if combined with sustainable and convenient product offerings.
South Africa and Egypt should actively pursue diversification strategies in their orange export markets, particularly focusing on emerging regions like Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The primary aim is to reduce dependence on the European market, which is facing a decline in demand due to reduced consumer interest and competition from other suppliers. Conduct detailed market analysis to identify new opportunities in regions with growing demand for citrus fruits. Explore bilateral trade agreements or partnerships with countries in emerging markets. Invest in marketing campaigns tailored to regional tastes, emphasizing the quality, flavor, and health benefits of South African and Egyptian oranges. By entering new markets, South Africa and Egypt can mitigate the negative impact of sluggish demand in the EU. Diversification helps create more stable revenue streams, reduces the risk associated with market saturation, and strengthens overall export volume. Furthermore, these emerging markets may offer higher growth potential than traditional European markets, where demand has plateaued.
Sources: Tridge, Agro Peru, Fresh Plaza, Guojiguoshu
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