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Trade4go
Apr 18th, 2025
Original content
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) office in Brasília reduced Brazil’s 2024/25 corn production to 126 million metric tons (mmt) from the earlier projection of 128 mmt. However, it remains 5.9% higher than the 119 million tonnes estimated for 2023/24. Corn exports for 2024/25 were reduced to 44 mmt, a reduction of 4 mmt from previous forecasts, but still above the 38.3 mmt exported in 2023/24. Domestic consumption projections rose to 87.5 mmt, up from the prior estimate of 84.5 mmt and the 84 mmt consumed in 2023/24. Separately, the USDA in Washington forecasts Brazil’s corn production at 130 mmt, with a planted area of 22.5 million hectares (ha), exports at 44 mmt, and domestic consumption at 89.5 mmt.
In the 2025/26 marketing year (MY), the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts China’s corn production to rise by 1.7% year-on-year (YoY), reaching 300 mmt due to improved yields. This growth aligns with China’s ongoing policy to enhance grain self-sufficiency by boosting domestic production, maintaining strategic reserves, and limiting corn imports in favor of cheaper alternatives like soybean meal, which is gradually reshaping traditional feed consumption patterns. The expansion of yield improvement programs will significantly increase the area under genetically modified (GM) corn by 2025. The Chinese government has actively purchased local grain for reserves, including 12 mmt from the 2023 harvest and 35 mmt from the 2024 crop. In 2025/26, corn consumption will rise to 321 mmt, up from 318 mmt, driven by strong demand for poultry feed. Imports will increase slightly to 8 mmt, still far below the 16 mmt imported in 2023/24. Consequently, ending stocks are expected to fall by 13 mmt to 182 mmt. Brazil remains China’s top corn supplier, while the United States (US) share of only 15% in 2024 is set to decline further due to new 15% tariffs on American goods.
Colombia’s corn consumption is projected to increase to 8.45 mmt in the 2025/26 season, driven primarily by rising demand from the animal feed sector. Stronger-than-expected growth in poultry and pork production in 2024 fueled this demand surge. The poultry industry, which dominates feed consumption, accounts for 65% of Colombia’s total corn imports, most of which come from the US. The pork sector contributes 17%. Favorable weather conditions will boost domestic corn production by 3.3% YoY.
Ukrainian corn stands to gain a strategic advantage as US tariffs on imported goods prompt potential retaliatory actions from major buyers like China and the European Union (EU), which could reduce demand for American corn. The US President may create an opening that Ukraine can seize by proposing a minimum 10% tariff on most imports and higher duties on countries such as China. As a leading global corn exporter, Ukraine leverages its competitive prices, stable logistics, and strong trade ties with the EU and Asia to fill the gap. While Brazil is a leading producer, it cannot satisfy global demand alone, allowing Ukraine to boost its market share and compete directly with the US.
As of April 6, the US had sown 2% of its planned corn area, according to the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS), aligning with 2024’s pace and the five-year average. However, the winter crop condition has deteriorated compared to the previous year. Only 48% of crops are rated in excellent or good condition, down from 56% a year ago. Meanwhile, 31% are in satisfactory condition (32% last year), and 21% are rated poor or very poor, significantly worse than the 12% recorded in the same period in 2024.
In W15, US wholesale maize prices rose by 5.26% week-on-week (WoW) and 11.11% month-on-month (MoM), with a YoY increase, reaching USD 0.20 per kilogram (kg). This price surge was due to weather-related challenges, including persistent wet conditions and colder temperatures in key maize-growing regions, which delayed planting and reduced crop yields. Moreover, a spike in domestic demand, particularly from processors and the biofuels sector, contributed to the price increase. Export dynamics also played a role, with global demand and potential tariff impacts, especially from markets like China, limiting the supply available for international trade. Due to the increasing demand, the USDA revised its US corn export forecast by 2.5 mmt, raising it to 64.8 mmt for MY 2024/25.
In W15, Brazil's wholesale maize prices decreased by 4% WoW and 7.69% MoM, reaching USD 0.24/kg. Despite dry weather impacting southern Safrinha corn production, recent rainfall in key regions such as Parana, São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goias has benefited the crop. Additional rain will help stabilize Safrinha corn production in the south. As of W14, 97% of Safrinha corn was planted, with the planting window now closed. The Mar-25 report from the National Supply Company (CONAB) also reduced Safrinha corn acreage by 90 thousand ha, bringing the total to 16.74 million ha.
In W15, Argentine maize prices remained stable WoW but rose by 5.26% MoM and 17.65% YoY, reaching USD 0.20/kg. This price increase was due to global supply constraints resulting from climate-related disruptions in major maize-producing regions, such as the US, Ukraine, and Brazil, which caused a market imbalance. Consequently, Argentina saw a surge in demand, especially from Europe, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa. The weaker Argentine peso further boosted export competitiveness, increasing international demand. Additionally, regional buyers in Latin America and the Middle East, who rely on Argentina as a key supplier, contributed to the price increase, which was amplified by the global supply shortfall.
In W15, Ukrainian wholesale maize prices surged 4.35% WoW to USD 0.24/kg. The price increase was primarily driven by tightening domestic supplies amid persistent logistical challenges. Despite a moderate recovery in 2025 production to approximately 27 mmt, up from 23.2 mmt in 2024, the country continues to face infrastructure damage and disruptions at key export corridors, particularly along the Black Sea. These bottlenecks have limited the flow of maize to international markets. Moreover, steady demand from key importers like China, the EU, and North Africa has kept upward pressure on prices. With rival exporters, including Russia and Serbia which face export restrictions or lower output, buyers have increasingly turned to Ukraine, further supporting the price rally.
As US corn faces reduced competitiveness due to rising tariffs, especially the 15% tariff imposed by China, there’s a growing opening for alternative exporters like Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina to strengthen their presence in these markets. These countries should actively negotiate bilateral trade agreements or enhance existing partnerships with China and the EU. Exporters can secure long-term contracts by aligning their offerings with buyer preferences, such as non-GMO certification, consistent quality standards, and traceability systems. Strategic investments in port infrastructure and logistics efficiency will further improve delivery reliability. With China aiming to diversify away from US corn, positioning Brazil and Ukraine as dependable partners can drive sustained export growth.
US farmers are increasingly vulnerable to weather volatility, as only 48% of winter crops are rated good or excellent. Wet and cold conditions have already delayed planting, impacting expected yields. To mitigate these effects, the US should prioritize investment in climate-smart agriculture, including drought-resistant and early-maturing seed varieties, improved drainage systems, and no-till or cover cropping practices that enhance soil health. Moreover, expanding crop insurance programs and developing real-time weather advisory systems can help farmers respond quickly to changing conditions. These steps would ensure stable yields, reduce production risk, and maintain US export competitiveness despite environmental uncertainty.
Global corn consumption continues to climb, particularly in fast-growing feed markets like China and Colombia, where the poultry and pork industries are driving significant demand. To reduce import dependency and improve domestic self-sufficiency, these countries should focus on rapidly scaling up the adoption of GM corn. Wider adoption of GM corn could stabilize domestic supply and lower production costs. In Colombia, where corn yields remain relatively low and weather-related risks are high, introducing GM corn could be a game-changer for feed security and competitiveness.
Sources: Tridge, Agro Polit, Canal Rural, Graintrade, UkrAgroConsult
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