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In China, apple prices have surged due to low inventory levels and rising demand ahead of the Qingming Festival. Following the Chinese New Year, traders began early procurement from key production regions like Gansu and Shaanxi, driven by concerns over limited supply and expectations of higher prices. By then, 70% to 80% of farmers' stocks had already been sold at pre-warehouse prices, which led to price increases in production areas, particularly for varieties such as Guangguo Fuji and Sweet Heart Fuji. Prices for Guangguo Fuji rose by approximately 40% to USD 0.82 per kilogram (RMB 6/kg). While retail demand remained steady, the market outperformed last year’s pre-Qingming period. Premium varieties, including Ruixue, Ruixianghong, and Jingning Red Fuji, are in strong demand locally and for export, particularly in high-end segments. Despite a brief dip in prices post-holiday, overall apple quality this season is reported to be good, sustaining continued interest from traders and consumers.
Apple production in Jammu and Kashmir, India, is expanding due to the adoption of high-density cultivation, , a method where trees are planted closer together to maximize space and yield. This technique results in higher productivity per hectare, allowing for better use of available land and improved fruit quality. Government initiatives focused on modernizing horticulture have encouraged farmers to replace traditional agriculture with high-density orchards, leading to an 11% increase in horticultural land and a 17% rise in overall production over the past five years. By 2024, the horticultural area expanded to 437 thousand hectares (ha), with districts like Anantnag, Baramulla, and Kupwara leading in apple cultivation. Apple production rose from 3.89 million metric tons (mmt) in 2020 to 4.65 mmt in 2024. This growth is driven by the strong adoption of high-density apple varieties, which have already covered over 7 thousand ha, surpassing the initial target. This demonstrates the industries’ growing financial viability and potential for continued expansion.
New Zealand is expected to export 79.2 thousand tons of Envy apples in the 2025 season, marking the country’s largest apple crop since 2022. Grown in Gisborne and benefiting from favorable weather, this year’s Envy apples are noted for their vibrant color, crisp texture, and balanced sweetness. These qualities ensure a seamless transition from the Northern Hemisphere supply. The premium Envy variety, reaching over 55 countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, China, and the United States (US), continues to expand its global presence. Strong Lunar New Year sales in Asia and rising consumer demand in the US highlight its expanding market presence. Supported by New Zealand’s integrated supply chain, the industry is well-positioned to maintain consistent quality and provide strong returns to growers.
Poland benefits from a favorable temperate climate with moderate summers and cold winters, providing optimal conditions for apple cultivation during the growing season. The climate supports year-round orchard management, although the actual growing season typically spans from late spring to early fall. Additionally, the country has fertile, well-drained soils that are ideal for the widespread cultivation of high-quality apples. As of 2022, the country ranked fourth globally and remained the European Union’s (EU) top producer, contributing approximately 30% of the EU’s total apple output. Despite having a long history of apple production and modern orchard infrastructure, Poland’s apple production has declined in recent years, with 2023 harvests totaling 3.9 million tons, down 9% from 2022, and early forecasts for 2024 suggesting a further 17% drop to 3.2 million tons. Apples continue to dominate the nation’s fruit industry, accounting for 90% of all tree fruit harvested between 2020 and 2023. Popular varieties such as Idared, Jonagold, and Gala are mainly grown in regions like Mazowieckie, Łódzkie, Świętokrzyskie, and Lubelskie. In 2023, Poland exported 817 thousand tons of apples, with key markets including EU countries like Germany, Romania, and Spain and non-EU destinations such as Egypt, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and India.
South Africa’s apple industry has been impacted by recent disruptions at the Cape Town Container Terminal (CTCT). Extreme winds in late Feb-25 and early Mar-25 halted cargo operations for over 200 hours. This interruption created a significant backlog, causing two weeks’ worth of apple shipments to arrive simultaneously in key markets, leading to severe logistical challenges and price volatility. Exporters face container shortages, delayed trucking schedules, and missed market windows, while port productivity lags behind global benchmarks. With apple export volumes projected to increase, the pressure is mounting to resolve these operational inefficiencies and consider private industry involvement to ensure a more resilient and stable supply chain.
The World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) projects a 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) increase in Southern Hemisphere apple production for 2025, reaching 4.5 million tons. South Africa is expected to remain the largest producer, with an expected 1.47 million tons, a 3.4% YoY increase from 2024, followed by Brazil with 950 thousand tons (+14.2%) and Chile with 920 thousand tons (+0.7%). Apple exports from the region are anticipated to grow by 5.3%, driven by South Africa and Chile. Despite a shorter export window due to increased European storage capacity and local fruit preferences, South African apples maintain competitiveness, thanks to their favorable timing, volume, and quality. With a smaller European harvest and declining apple stocks, demand for South African apples is expected to rise, particularly in key markets like Germany. Exporters are focusing on customized retail programs and adhering to strict EU standards while addressing challenges such as reduced consumption and increased competition from other fruits.
New York's apple supply remains strong in the US, though volumes of the Honeycrisp variety are beginning to tighten. Core varieties such as Gala, Fuji, and McIntosh are anticipated to last until the fall 2025 harvest. While the total volume has declined YoY, the quality of apples in storage is reported to be very good. Local demand is increasing due to industry efforts to boost consumption and improve quality. However, apple exports for the 2024/25 season have dropped significantly, with reduced shipments to traditional markets like Israel, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Vietnam, impacted by global political and economic challenges. While pricing is currently stronger than the previous year, it has not fully recovered from earlier losses. Potential tariffs targeting major export markets such as Mexico and Canada could put additional downward pressure on domestic apple prices.
In W14, apple prices in Italy remained stable at USD 1.84/kg, with no week-on-week (WoW) or month-on-month (MoM) change. However, YoY prices experienced a slight increase of 1.66%. This stability is attributed to a balance between supply and demand, following earlier fluctuations caused by adverse weather conditions such as spring frosts and hailstorms. Additionally, increased input costs and sustained export demand have maintained current price levels.
Apple prices in the US held steady WoW at USD 1.23/kg in W14, marking a 2.38% MoM drop and a 6.82% YoY decrease. This WoW stability is due to a strong local supply, with primary varieties like Gala, Fuji, and McIntosh expected to last until the fall 2025 harvest. However, reduced export volumes, particularly to markets like Mexico and China due to retaliatory tariffs, have contributed to the YoY price decline. Additionally, the looming threat of new tariffs targeting major export markets, such as Mexico and Canada, adds uncertainty, potentially exerting further downward pressure on domestic apple prices.
In Chile, apple prices remained steady WoW at USD 1.28/kg in W14, with no MoM change. However, YoY prices dropped by 24.66%. This decline is due to the projected 0.7% increase in Chile's 2025 apple production, which has contributed to a more abundant supply in the market. Additionally, the Southern Hemisphere's overall apple production is forecasted to rise by 5.5% in 2025, further influencing global apple prices. These factors have led to a price decrease compared to the previous year. Nonetheless, the stable MoM price suggests a balance between supply and demand in the short term.
South Africa's apple prices declined by 3.51% WoW to USD 1.10/kg in W14, representing a 2.65% MoM decrease and a 24.66% YoY drop. The price decline is due to significant operational disruptions at the CTCT caused by extreme winds in late Feb-25 and early Mar-25. The port experienced over 200 hours of lost operations, leading to a backlog of shipments and delays in exports during a critical period for deciduous fruit exports. These logistical challenges resulted in a temporary oversupply in key markets, exerting downward pressure on apple prices. However, with the Southern Hemisphere's apple production projected to increase by 5.5% in 2025, reaching 4.5 million tons, and South Africa's output expected to rise by 3.4% to 1.47 million tons, there is potential for market stabilization in the coming months as supply chains recover and demand aligns with the increased production.
Apple prices in France fell by 3.62% WoW to USD 1.33/kg in W14, also representing a 12.50% YoY drop due to stable production levels of 1.4 million tons in the 2024/25 season, despite broader European production declines. However, MoM prices slightly increased by 2.31% due to a 25 thousand-ton increase in exports compared to the previous year, indicating a positive shift in market demand.
South African apple exporters must address logistical challenges by working closely with port authorities to improve operational efficiency, particularly at the CTCT. Focusing on streamlining container handling, enhancing trucking schedules, and increasing port productivity will help mitigate future disruptions. Additionally, exploring partnerships with private industry to modernize infrastructure and optimize supply chain processes will ensure more reliable and timely deliveries to key markets, stabilizing prices and avoiding delays.
Chinese apple traders should secure premium varieties like Ruixue, Ruixianghong, and Jingning Red Fuji early in the season to capitalize on rising demand and limited inventory. Locking in supply from Gansu and Shaanxi before major festivals will help manage cost volatility and ensure availability for high-end markets. By coordinating with growers for advance purchasing and offering incentives for consistent quality, traders can maintain margins and secure their position in local and export markets.
Sources: Tridge, Cape Business News, Freshplaza, F+B Tech, MLVVN, The Kashmir Monitor, Tru-Cape, United Apple Sales
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