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Brazil’s 2024/25 orange crop is estimated at 223.14 million boxes, marking a 3.4% increase from the Sep-24 forecast but still 27.4% below the previous season. Weaker global demand has pressured prices, with Brazilian producers offering orange juice concentrate at USD 6.1 thousand to USD 6.4 thousand per metric tons (mt) Free on Board (FOB), reflecting a 3% month-on-month (MoM) decline. Following previous supply challenges, European retailers have shifted toward nectars and juice drinks but expect no shortages before the next harvest. If conditions remain favorable, production could rebound to 270 to 300 million boxes in the upcoming season.
Iran has imposed a 60-day export ban on oranges, apples, and dates starting February 24, 2025, in response to rising food prices and public discontent ahead of Ramadan. Although shipments continued briefly after the announcement, the ban is now fully enforced. This move is expected to disrupt global trade, particularly affecting key importers. Analysts suggest the ban is a short-term measure that could exacerbate Iran’s economic challenges, including high inflation and currency depreciation, by limiting foreign exchange earnings.
Egyptian orange exporters are facing a challenging season due to weakened demand, particularly in Europe and East Asia, where a shortage of large-sized fruit and rising local prices have impacted sales. The situation worsened after the government reduced export subsidies in Nov-24 from 8 to 10% to just 2.5%, further straining competitiveness. Lower production volumes and disruptions in the Red Sea have also driven up export prices, making Egyptian oranges less attractive in key markets. While demand remains strong in Bangladesh and Brazil, the industry is eyeing India as a potential growth market, provided prices remain competitive.
So far in 2025, orange production in Nepal’s Gulmi district grew to approximately USD 1.85 million, up from USD 1.74 million the previous year, with exports to other districts rising to USD 970 thousand. This growth is driven by new trees reaching fruit-bearing age, improved fertilizer application, effective irrigation, and technical support. Over 95% of the district’s orange trees are biju varieties, which are valued for their long fruit-bearing period. However, some farmers continue to struggle with challenges like root and stem rot. The Citrus Fruit Zone Programme, implemented across 37 wards in 12 municipalities, is promoting structured orange farming, particularly in key production areas such as Nayagaun, Pipal Dhara, Lumcha, and Bhadgaun. To ensure long-term citrus production, efforts focus on commercializing diverse orange varieties while enhancing orchard management, fertilizer use, irrigation, and pruning practices.
Spain’s Valencian Community faces a rapid spread of Scirtothrips aurantii Faure, which is severely affecting late-season oranges, particularly the Navel variety. In response, the Valencian Regional Government has implemented urgent control measures, as the pest has compromised fruit quality, forcing some production into processing. Market conditions remain sluggish, with good-quality oranges selling for USD 0.35 to 0.40 per kilogram (kg). The outlook may depend on import volumes, particularly from Egypt, where shipments to the European Union (EU) dropped by 48% year-on-year (YoY) in Jan-25, potentially easing competitive pressure.
Florida's orange industry faces severe production challenges, primarily due to stronger hurricanes and the spread of citrus greening disease. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasted a 10% YoY drop in United States (US) orange production in 2024. Production in Florida is expected to experience a significant 33% YoY decline, worsened by Hurricane Milton, which affected 70% of the state's citrus acreage. The resulting supply shortages have contributed to rising orange juice prices, nearly doubling since 2020. Tropicana, a major player in the industry, has faced financial difficulties, including a 4% revenue drop last quarter, emergency funding needs, and a declining market position. Furthermore, shifting consumer preferences toward alternatives like teas and sparkling waters have further impacted orange juice sales, challenging the industry’s recovery.
Vietnam’s Mekong Delta experienced a surge in king orange cultivation between 2013 and 2020 as farmers capitalized on high yields and strong market prices of USD 0.59 to 0.98/kg. However, uncontrolled expansion in key provinces such as Vĩnh Long, Trà Vinh, Đồng Tháp, Tiền Giang, and Bến Tre has resulted in oversupply and steep price declines. With no official export channels and weakening domestic demand, many farmers face financial losses and mounting debt, prompting authorities to discourage further planting. While efforts to implement Vietnamese Good Agricultural Practices (VietGAP) and Good Agricultural Practices (GlobalGAP) standards aim to stabilize the market, experts anticipate that prices will remain below pre-2020 levels.
In W9, Spain's orange prices rose slightly by 2.78% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.37/kg, with a 27.59% MoM surge and a 2.78% YoY increase. This uptick is primarily due to the rapid spread of the pest Scirtothrips aurantii in the Valencian Community, affecting late-season oranges, especially the Navel variety, leading to compromised fruit quality and reduced marketable supply. Additionally, a significant 48% YoY decrease in Egyptian orange shipments to the EU in Jan-25 has reduced competition, further supporting higher prices for Spanish oranges.
In W9, South Africa's orange prices dropped by 12.59% WoW to USD 1.18/kg, with a 2.48% MoM and 14.49% YoY drop due to the ongoing wet season, which has accelerated harvest activity and increased fresh market availability. The seasonal production peak has eased previous supply constraints, leading to a greater volume of oranges entering local and export markets, putting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, stable domestic demand and cautious consumer purchasing have contributed to the softer pricing trend. However, despite the weekly decline, strong export demand from the EU and the Middle East continues to support the overall market movement, preventing a sharper price drop.
Egypt's orange prices increased by 9.09% WoW and YoY to USD 0.24/kg in W9, with no MoM change. This is due to a rebound in export activity following the previous week’s price dip, as buyers resumed purchases after delaying orders. Additionally, strong demand from key markets such as Bangladesh and Brazil has provided price support, offsetting lower demand in Europe and East Asia. However, the overall market remains under pressure due to reduced export subsidies, high logistical costs from Red Sea disruptions, and limited availability of large-sized fruit, which continue to challenge Egypt’s competitiveness in premium markets.
Orange prices in the US held steady at USD 0.97/kg in W9, with a 7.78% MoM increase due to ongoing supply challenges from Florida’s reduced production and strong demand for fresh oranges and processed juice. The lingering impact of Hurricane Milton, which damaged a significant portion of the state’s citrus acreage, has tightened market availability, keeping prices elevated despite stable weekly movement. However, there is a 29.20% YoY increase due to the continued decline in US orange production, particularly the 33% YoY drop in Florida, exacerbated by citrus greening disease and extreme weather events. Additionally, supply shortages have driven up orange juice prices, supporting higher fresh orange prices as processors compete for limited fruit, further straining overall market availability.
In Italy, orange prices remained steady at USD 1.57/kg in W9, with a slight drop of 1.88% MoM and 3.68% YoY due to continued weak consumer demand as the Washington Navel season winds down and Tarocco blood oranges reach peak availability. Retail sales remain sluggish, with price resistance limiting upward movement despite stable local demand. Additionally, easing supply constraints and steady market arrivals have contributed to the sustained downward trend. However, Italy remains the highest-priced market for oranges, as elevated production costs and strong local consumption continue to provide price support.
Valencian citrus growers should adopt integrated pest management strategies to control thrips and minimize fruit damage. Using selective insecticides, deploying natural predators, and applying protective netting can help reduce infestations. Additionally, growers should focus on timely harvesting to prevent excessive-quality losses and maintain market competitiveness.
Florida citrus growers should expand disease-resistant rootstock adoption and implement stricter grove sanitation to combat citrus greening. Diversifying into hardier citrus varieties, such as early-season mandarins or hybrid oranges, can help maintain supply stability. Additionally, investing in direct-to-consumer marketing and value-added citrus products can mitigate declining orange juice demand.
Egyptian orange exporters should optimize pricing strategies by focusing on cost-efficient logistics and streamlining packing operations to offset rising export costs. Strengthening quality control measures, such as better fruit sorting and size calibration, can improve market appeal in Europe and East Asia. Expanding targeted promotions in high-demand markets like India and Brazil will also help sustain export volumes.
Sources: Tridge, Cnn, EastFruit, Mintec/Expana, SGP News, The Rising Nepal, UkrAgroConsult
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