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Chile's 2024/25 table grape season has faced challenges, including market saturation in the US and strong competition from Peru, South Africa, and India, but industry expectations for price recovery by Apr-25 remain high as supply stabilizes. The country forecasts exports of 66 million boxes, a 2.3% year-on-year (YoY) increase from the previous season. Shipments are projected to reach 14 million boxes by W6, supported by the System Approach in Atacama, Coquimbo, and Valparaíso, which has improved dispatch efficiency. However, price pressure persists due to an accumulation of 8 million boxes in the United States (US) amid port strike concerns and strong competition from Peru, South Africa, and India. Industry experts highlight the importance of efficient supply chain management to sustain Chile’s competitiveness, with late-season fruit potentially benefiting from improved demand and pricing adjustments.
Peru’s Ica region will celebrate its annual grape harvest from March 5 to 29, showcasing its winemaking heritage through traditional grape treading and cultural festivities. Highlights include the VIII Grape Treading and Cachina Route in Chincha (March 5 to 16), the first Pisco Harvest Festival in Pisco (March 18 to 23), and the 60th edition of the Ica International Grape Harvest Festival (March 7 to 17). Wineries across Ica, Paracas, and Palpa will host grape stomping activities, wine and pisco tastings, and cultural events. These celebrations aim to preserve the region’s viticulture traditions while boosting tourism and local engagement.
Spain's table grape market has stabilized in volume and pricing after earlier disruptions caused by delayed Peruvian and South African shipments, which led to market saturation, price drops, and slower sales in Jan-25. By Feb-25, conditions improved as South Africa reached peak supply while Peru’s shipments declined. Looking ahead, the 2025 season is expected to be shorter, with no large shipments arriving in April and a potential supply gap in early May-25 due to Chile’s earlier harvest. Meanwhile, grapevines in Alicante have begun budding uniformly due to mild temperatures, though sudden weather changes could still affect yields.
Chile's grape prices increased slightly by 1.15% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.88 per kilogram (kg) in W9, marking an 11.39% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a surge of 23.94% YoY. The price increase is due to improving demand as late-season fruit gains market traction, alongside stabilized supply following earlier logistical disruptions. Additionally, industry-wide efforts to enhance dispatch efficiency through the Systems Approach in key growing regions have supported steady exports. However, ongoing competition from Peru, South Africa, and India, coupled with accumulated stock in the US, continues to exert pressure on price growth, limiting sharper increases.
In Peru, grape prices remained stable at USD 0.61/kg in W9, with prices dropping by 8.96% MoM and decreasing 40.78% YoY. The price drop is due to higher supply as the harvest season progresses in Ica, increasing market availability and easing price pressures. Additionally, strong production levels and stable domestic demand have kept prices from rising despite ongoing celebrations like the Ica International Grape Harvest Festival. While these events promote local viticulture and tourism, they have had minimal impact on price recovery, as export competition and logistical challenges continue to influence market dynamics.
Grape prices in South Africa dropped significantly by 26.90% WoW to USD 1.06/kg in W9, with a 35.76% MoM drop and a 9.40% YoY decrease due to peak-season supply reaching the market, leading to increased availability and downward price pressure. The end of Peruvian imports in Feb-25 initially helped stabilize prices, but the continued influx of domestic production, combined with strong competition in export markets, has contributed to the recent declines. Additionally, logistical challenges and fluctuating demand in key markets have further impacted pricing, although an anticipated supply gap in early May-25 could lead to price adjustments later in the season.
In W9, India's grape prices dropped by 3.03% WoW to USD 0.64/kg and saw a 9.86% YoY decrease due to intensified competition in key export destinations such as the Netherlands, Poland, and Germany, where ample supply from other producers has kept prices under pressure. Additionally, despite ongoing trade negotiations, exports to New Zealand have yet to gain significant traction, limiting immediate demand support. However, MoM prices slightly increased by 1.59% due to steady export interest, particularly from emerging markets, and traders holding firm on pricing expectations. The recent engagement with New Zealand continues to increase market confidence, while domestic consumption remains stable, preventing further declines.
Chilean exporters should prioritize efficient logistics and market diversification to manage high inventory levels in the US. Coordinating shipments to alternative markets in Asia and Europe can reduce price pressure, while adjusting export schedules to align with late-season demand could improve profitability. Growers should also focus on post-harvest quality management, including cold chain optimization, to ensure fruit remains competitive against supply from Peru, South Africa, and India.
Brazilian grape exporters should optimize logistics by consolidating shipments and negotiating better freight rates to offset high transport costs. Expanding exports beyond the second half of the year through improved rain protection, such as greenhouse structures and smart irrigation, can stabilize supply. Growers should also streamline in-house packaging processes and invest in labor retention strategies, including training programs, to ensure compliance with certification standards and maintain export quality.
Sources: Tridge, Abrafrutas, Agraria, Daily Times, Lokmat Times, The Goan, The New India Express
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