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Trade4go
Mar 7th, 2025
Original content
Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is estimated at 59.75 million 60-kg bags, with arabica output dropping 16% to 36.46M bags due to drought and pruning, while robusta production is set to rise 8% to 23.29M bags. Vietnam’s new harvest faces export delays, while African nations aim to process 50% of their coffee domestically by 2035. China is expanding its coffee exports, forecasted at 1.8M bags in 2025. Global coffee prices remain volatile; robusta holds at USD 5,410/ton, while arabica dropped 0.2% to USD 0.375 per pound (lb).
Brazil’s domestic coffee consumption reached 21.91 million 60-kilogram (kg) bags between Nov-23 and Oct-24, marking a slight 1.11% increase from the previous period, with a per capita intake of 5.01 kg per year. This accounts for 40.4% of the country’s 2024 coffee harvest of 54.21 million 60-kg bags. The Southeast led consumption with 9.13 million bags (41.7%), followed by the Northeast (5.89 million, 26.9%) and the South (3.2 million, 14.6%). The North (1.93 million, 8.8%) and the Center-West (1.75 million, 8%) had lower shares. The data, published by the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (ABIC) and Embrapa Café, highlights regional consumption patterns and industry trends.
Brazil exported 1.01 million 60-kg bags of specialty coffee in Jan-25, generating USD 393 million at an average price of USD 388.35 per bag, accounting for 29.9% of total coffee export revenue. Specialty coffees, known for superior quality or sustainability certifications, saw a price premium of 13.2% to 35.8% over other categories. The US led imports (20.4%), followed by Belgium (13.4%) and Germany (13.3%). Over the past 12 months, Brazil exported 50.5 million coffee bags, earning USD 13.05 billion, with green coffee making up 46.25 million bags and soluble coffee dominating the industrialized segment.
Brazil's coffee sector is projected to achieve a record-breaking revenue of USD 23.3 billion (BRL 116.42 billion) in 2025, marking a 46% increase from 2024 and a 120% surge from 2023. Arabica coffee is expected to generate USD 16.3 billion (BRL 81.51 billion), accounting for 70% of the total, while robusta/conilon is estimated at USD 7 billion (BRL 34.91 billion), representing 30%. The projections are based on Jan-25 producer prices, with data sourced from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture and Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Honduras, the third-largest coffee producer in the Americas, is seeking alternatives to the European Union (EU) market due to new European trade restrictions, including deforestation compliance laws. Vice President of the Honduran Coffee Institute, Mario Suazo, sees Russia as a promising market, though current exports remain low at 18,000 bags annually. With 95% of Honduran coffee produced by small farmers, high compliance costs pose challenges for EU exports. Coffee is a key industry, contributing over 5% to GDP and employing 1M people. To mitigate risks, Honduras is also considering expansion into China.
Peru’s coffee exports surpassed USD 1.1 billion in 2024, marking a 33% year-on-year (YoY) growth and reinforcing its position as a global leader. Higher international prices and expanded market access fueled this growth, with key buyers including the United States (US), Germany, Belgium, Canada, and Sweden. Peru remains the world’s top organic coffee exporter, competing with Ethiopia in quality and sustainability. Domestic efforts aim to boost per capita consumption from 1.2 kg to 1.5 kg by 2025. Despite global supply challenges, Peru’s diverse varieties and production across 16 regions continue to strengthen its industry.
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Brazil's coffee prices have experienced a slight decline in recent weeks, with W9 prices at USD 8.26/kg, down 8.02% week-on-week (WoW) and 2.25% month-on-month (MoM). This price drop follows the peak of USD 9.20/kg in W7 2025, signaling a stabilization phase influenced by pricing corrections and currency fluctuations. However, YoY prices have surged by 44.41%, driven by factors such as increased domestic consumption, which now accounts for 40.4% of Brazil’s coffee production, growing demand for premium specialty coffees, and robust export activity, particularly in the US, Belgium, and Germany. Additionally, Brazil’s projected coffee revenue of USD 23.3 billion in 2025 reflects a strong market outlook, while potential weather-related disruptions to coffee yields could further support price increases in the near term.
Colombia's coffee prices have shown a notable increase in recent weeks, with W9 pricing reaching USD 8.22/kg, up 4.58% WoW and 5.12% MoM. This rise is driven by growing global demand and tight coffee supply, coupled with Colombia's expanding coffee exports. The rebound in prices follows previous drops, indicating market adjustments after a period of stabilization. YoY prices are slightly lower by 0.60%, suggesting that prices are aligning with last year's trends and seasonality. Overall, the market dynamics indicate a healthy adjustment phase, with steady demand and supply constraints keeping prices elevated despite the minor YoY decrease.
Vietnam’s coffee prices showed slight fluctuations, with W9 2025 pricing at USD 5.14/kg, down 0.96% WoW but up 0.19% MoM. Farmers continue to withhold sales, anticipating further price hikes despite strong demand. The market remains under pressure due to Vietnam’s Robusta output reaching a 25-year low, driven by adverse weather conditions, further tightening global supply. Additionally, reduced stock availability from the 2024 harvest and low inventories are straining the market. With domestic consumption at half the global average, local demand dynamics are also impacting supply flows, contributing to price volatility.
With Brazil's arabica output declining and Vietnam facing tight supply, importers and roasters should explore sourcing options from emerging producers like China and African nations expanding domestic processing. Peru’s record exports also present an opportunity for high-quality organic coffee procurement.
Peru’s goal to increase per capita coffee consumption from 1.2 kg to 1.5 kg aligns with Brazil’s steady domestic growth. Other producers should implement awareness campaigns and incentives to expand local demand, reducing export dependency.
Sources: Tridge, AP Noticias, Kvedomosti, Portal do Agronegocio, Vina Net
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