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In 2024, Belarus exported 6 million tons of dairy products worth USD 3.4 billion, accounting for 40.3% of the country's total food exports. This marks an 11.5% increase in volume and a 17.8% rise in value compared to 2023. The number of export destinations increased from 59 to 69, adding new markets such as Algeria, Mexico, Kuwait, Nigeria, and Kenya. Belarus continues to strengthen its global dairy presence by expanding product assortments in established and emerging markets. Additionally, the Ministry of Agriculture and Food honored top-performing agricultural organizations during the Dairy Farm forum.
In Jan-25, the Netherlands experienced a 1.8% year-on-year (YoY) decrease in milk supply, averaging 37,283 tons per day. While this daily supply was higher than in recent months, it was similar to levels from three years ago. However, the milk fat content saw a significant rise, reaching 4.66%, compared to 4.53% in Jan-22.
Russia’s commercial milk production is expected to remain at 26.3 million tons in 2025, matching 2024 levels. Two industry scenarios were outlined: one where retail price growth offsets rising costs and another where prices grow slower than inflation. Depending on the scenario, dairy imports could rise by 7.5 to 14% to 7.5 to 8 million tons, while stock levels may fall. Exports are forecasted to remain at 1.1 million tons. By 2030, production could increase to 31.3 million tons (a 19% rise), boosting self-sufficiency to 88.2%, reducing imports by 18%, and raising exports by 44% to 1.5 million tons.
As of February 10, 2025, Russian agricultural enterprises sold 57,200 tons of milk per day, a 4% (+2,200 tons) increase from the same period in 2024, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The highest sales volumes (over 2,000 tons daily) were recorded in Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Krasnodar Krai, and Voronezh and Kirov Oblasts. The national average milk yield per cow reached 22.8 kilogram (kg) per day, up 1.3 kg YoY, with leading regions exceeding 27 kg per cow, including Krasnodar and Stavropol Krais and several western oblasts.
Russia’s dairy exports are projected to exceed USD 730 million by 2030, a nearly 70% increase from 2024. The potential for dry dairy products alone is estimated at over USD 140 million. Key growth markets include China, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Southeast Asia. In 2024, Russian dairy exports grew by 19%, with cheese shipments rising 26%, milk 39%, and dry milk 15%. Russia currently exports dairy products to 67 countries, with significant increases in shipments to China (+60%) and Mongolia (+31%).
In 2024, United States (US) fluid milk sales saw a modest 0.6% YoY increase, marking the first annual growth in 15 years. Meanwhile, dairy exports faced a sluggish fourth quarter, but cheese exports stood out, reaching a record 7.9% of domestic production for the year.
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Milk prices in Germany remained stable week-on-week (WoW) at USD 4.64/kg in W8, showing only a slight month-on-month (MoM) increase of 0.65%. However, YoY prices surged by 34.88%, reflecting a significant upward trend. This sharp annual rise is primarily due to tightening supply conditions. The German dairy cow population has declined by 3.3%, reducing milk production capacity. Additionally, unfavorable weather conditions have impacted feed availability and overall yields. Further compounding the issue, disruptions caused by Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) and African Swine Fever (ASF) have added pressure to the supply chain, contributing to the sustained price increase.
Milk prices in Belgium in W8 rose by 2.71% WoW to USD 3.79/kg, also marking a modest 1.34% MoM increase. This rebound follows a price drop in W7, indicating market stabilization after recent fluctuations. Despite these short-term gains, YoY prices remain 23.59% lower due to a combination of weaker demand and increased seasonal milk production. Cooler temperatures have improved dairy yields, while the market continues adjusting after previous disruptions caused by high input costs. With production conditions normalizing and supply chain pressures easing, prices are aligning with typical seasonal trends. Unlike other top-producing countries facing tighter supply, Belgium’s stronger production levels have allowed prices to decline compared to last year.
In W8, Milk prices in the Netherlands increased, rising 1.83% WoW to USD 2.22/kg, 2.30% MoM, and 19.35% YoY. This upward trend reflects tightening milk supplies both domestically and across Europe, sustaining higher price levels despite recent market fluctuations. In Jan-25, Dutch milk production declined 1.8% YoY, averaging 37,283 tons per day. While this daily output was higher than in previous months, it was still lower than the seasonal average in previous years, highlighting ongoing supply constraints that continue to drive price increases.
In W8, milk prices in France increased 1.34% WoW to USD 3.03/kg, reflecting a market stabilization adjustment driven by tightening milk supply across Europe. This supply constraint has fueled higher demand, applying upward pressure on prices despite recent fluctuations. However, prices remain lower both MoM with a 3.19% drop and YoY with a 3.50% decline due to an expansion in France’s milk production throughout 2024. With increased output, supply levels have grown, easing price pressures. This trend is expected to persist as production remains strong, keeping prices below previous-year levels despite short-term adjustments as long as demand remains constant.
Belarus and Russia should strengthen trade relations with fast-growing dairy markets in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa by targeting countries with rising dairy consumption. Leveraging trade agreements and reducing logistical barriers can accelerate penetration into markets like Indonesia, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia. Exporters should adapt packaging and formulations to meet local consumer preferences, such as smaller portion sizes or lactose-free options, to gain a competitive edge.
The Netherlands and Germany should capitalize on rising milk fat content by focusing on premium dairy products such as butter, cream, and specialty cheeses. Marketing these high-fat products to health-conscious and gourmet consumers can improve profitability. Producers should also explore partnerships with bakeries and confectionery manufacturers to expand their industrial applications, ensuring consistent demand despite fluctuating milk supply.
With Russian dairy exports projected to rise, producers and distributors should enhance storage infrastructure and export logistics to minimize waste and maintain product quality. Investing in cold-chain solutions and regional distribution hubs in key markets like China and North Africa can reduce transit times and maximize freshness. Coordination with importers to align production cycles with demand patterns will further reduce surplus risk.
Sources: Tridge, Agro Times UA, Canal Rural, Dairy Business, Milk News, Veeteelt
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