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Australia’s table grape industry is experiencing a strong season, with a larger-than-usual crop and high-quality fruit driven by favorable weather conditions. The harvest, which began in mid-Dec-24 and will continue through May-25, is projected to yield 25% more than usual, marking a sharp recovery from last year’s 25% decline. Growers are cultivating traditional and newly popular varieties, meeting strong demand in domestic and export markets. The recent approval of 150 additional grape varieties for export to Japan has further expanded opportunities, complementing sustained demand from key markets such as New Zealand, Korea, and Indonesia.
Brazil's grape exports in Jan-25 totaled 2.06 thousand tons, an 18% year-on-year (YoY) increase but an 86% month-on-month (MoM) decline. Despite the higher volume, export revenue remained stable at USD 5.32 million (-1% YoY). Strong demand from the United States (US) and the United Kingdom (UK) was driven by delayed deliveries from Peru and South Africa due to logistical challenges, supporting shipments from alternative suppliers. However, heavy rains in the São Francisco Valley, the country’s main producing region, are expected to reduce the availability of premium seedless white grapes in Feb-25. This could potentially boost imports, which had already surged by 114% YoY in Jan-25. Without strategies to mitigate climate-related disruptions, production and exports may remain vulnerable.
Chile is advancing its table grape industry through a genetic improvement program led by the Agricultural Research Institute (INIA) and the Biofruit Consortium, a public-private partnership focused on developing innovative fruit varieties. A key development is the INIA G-4 variety, a high-yielding white seedless grape producing over 3.8 thousand boxes per hectare (ha). It is designed to support varietal replacement amid climate challenges. Registered with Chile’s Agricultural and Livestock Service (SAG) in 2023 and under Provisional Protection, INIA G-4 boasts an extended post-harvest life, maintaining fruit quality for up to 60 days. With no acreage restrictions, this mid-season variety is expected to play a key role in revitalizing Chile’s table grape industry.
India is actively pursuing new export opportunities for grapes in New Zealand as trade discussions progress. A recent visit by a New Zealand delegation to Maharashtra, which produces for 94% of India’s grape exports, focused on assessing production standards and the feasibility of lifting biosecurity restrictions. In 2023/24, India exported 324 thousand metric tons (mt) of grapes to key markets such as the Netherlands, Poland, Germany, and China. Officials emphasized that Indian grapes now meet international standards and urged New Zealand to reconsider imports. The delegation plans to inspect vineyards before deciding on a trial shipment, potentially unlocking a new market for Indian grape exporters.
South Africa’s table grape industry had packed over 80% of its crop by W6, with 60.7 million cartons inspected for export, a 2% YoY increase. Exports totaled 48.57 million cartons, up 4% YoY from the previous season. While the Northern Provinces fell 18% short of their estimate, the Orange River Region surpassed expectations by 2%. Packing continues in the Hex River, Berg River, and Olifants River regions, with the national estimate holding at 76.40 million cartons. Leading export varieties included Sweet Celebration™, Sweet Globe™, and Crimson Seedless, with 79% of shipments bound for the European Union (EU) and UK, and 11% for North America. Despite strong winds at the Cape Town port causing some shipping delays, the stock buildup was 7% lower than last season, reflecting improved export flow.
South Africa's grape harvest is expected to end earlier than expected due to favorable growing conditions, which have resulted in excellent berry weight and quality. However, the rapid packing pace, combined with cold storage constraints and port delays, has created supply bottlenecks. This has resulted in an influx of grapes in the UK and European markets. While demand for white grapes remains strong, red and black varieties are experiencing sales pressure. The early end of the season could tighten supply later, potentially boosting late-season prices. South African grapes will soon face competition from Indian shipments in Europe and the UK, but their shorter transit time and superior quality provide a competitive edge.
Chile's grape prices decreased by 4.40% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.87 per kilogram (kg) in W8, with an 8.42% MoM drop due to increased market supply from the ongoing varietal replacement program, particularly with high-yielding varieties like INIA G-4. Improved post-harvest storage has also stabilized availability, preventing sharp price fluctuations. However, grape prices surged by 26.09% YoY due to reduced production in the previous season, where climate challenges affected yields, leading to a tighter market last year. The ongoing industry shift toward more resilient and productive varieties is expected to impact future pricing trends.
Grape prices in Peru fell by 6.15% WoW to USD 0.61/kg in W8, showing a 7.58% MoM decline and a 39.60% YoY drop due to record-high export volumes from Peru and Chile, which have increased supply in the US market. Optimal growing conditions, including favorable temperatures, adequate sunlight, and sufficient water availability, have led to strong yields, particularly for premium and proprietary varieties, contributing to downward pressure on prices. Additionally, the overlap in availability between Peruvian and Chilean grapes has intensified competition, further driving prices down.
In South Africa, grape prices surged by 18.85% WoW to USD 1.45/kg in W8, marking a 16.94% MoM increase and a 16% YoY increase due to an accelerated harvest leading to reduced late-season supply. Favorable growing conditions resulted in high-quality fruit with excellent berry weight, driving strong demand, particularly for white grape varieties. However, logistical constraints, including cold storage limitations and port delays, contributed to a more concentrated export flow, reducing available stock in key markets. Additionally, with the harvest expected to end earlier than usual, market anticipation of limited supply in the coming weeks further supported price increases.
Grape prices in India remained steady at USD 0.66/kg in W8, with a 3.13% MoM increase due to growing export prospects, particularly with New Zealand, increasing market optimism. The recent visit by a New Zealand delegation to Maharashtra signaled potential market expansion, encouraging traders to hold firm on prices in anticipation of increased demand. However, there is a 12% YoY drop due to strong competition in key export markets like the Netherlands, Poland, and Germany, coupled with high production volumes. Additionally, ongoing trade negotiations mean that any potential gains from New Zealand exports have yet to materialize, limiting immediate price support.
Brazilian grape exporters should collaborate with growers in the São Francisco Valley to implement climate-resilient farming techniques and to ensure a stable supply of premium seedless white grapes. Strategies such as improved drainage systems, protective covers, and adjusted pruning schedules can help mitigate the impact of heavy rains. For example, plastic covers can reduce excess moisture and prevent fungal diseases, while optimizing pruning timing can improve vine recovery and fruit quality. Strengthening post-harvest handling, including rapid cold storage and controlled atmosphere packaging, will also help maintain grape quality for export.
South African grape exporters should coordinate with logistics providers to streamline cold storage and shipping schedules, preventing market oversupply and maintaining stable prices. Adjusting shipment pacing by prioritizing early-season exports of red and black varieties can help balance inventory and reduce price pressure. Exporters can also work closely with European and UK retailers to align promotional campaigns with supply peaks, boosting demand for underperforming varieties. Strengthening direct partnerships with distributors will further ensure efficient stock rotation and minimize losses from storage delays.
Sources: Tridge, ATGA, Freshplaza, NoticiasAgricolas, Redagricola, The Bridge Chronicle, SATI
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