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Chile’s apple production has been declining for years, but industry experts foresee a revival as Latin America becomes an increasingly profitable market and cherry expansion in China slows. In 2024, Chile exported approximately 2.8 million boxes of apples, with 40% destined for Europe, supplying major retailers like Lidl, Aldi, and Tesco. A 10% growth in apple exports is projected for 2025, though profitability remains under pressure from rising freight costs and exchange rate fluctuations. Additionally, Chilean exporters must meet strict European certification requirements, such as Linking Environment And Farming (LEAF), to maintain market access.
Himachal Pradesh, India’s top apple-producing state, is experiencing a sharp decline in yield due to erratic weather patterns. In 2024, production dropped to 20.9 million boxes, 8.2 million below the projected 29.1 million, primarily due to insufficient winter chilling hours, uneven flowering, and summer droughts. Rising temperatures continue to threaten the USD 573 million (INR 50 billion) apple industry, which supplies markets nationwide. Despite contributions from key districts like Shimla, Kullu, and Kinnaur, unpredictable weather could drive up prices and reduce accessibility for Indian consumers in 2025.
New Zealand apples have started entering the market, though supply remains limited. Both large and small sizes are available, with prices in line with previous seasons. Meanwhile, American apples continue to dominate imports, but traders report lower overall quality this season, affecting sales. As New Zealand’s supply grows, demand for American apples is expected to decline further.
As of Feb-25, fresh apples in storage totaled 130 million bushels in the United States (US). Fresh apples in storage stood at 92.7 million bushels, which was 5% year-on-year (YoY) lower but 12% above the five-year average. Processing apples in storage totaled 37.5 million bushels, down 5% YoY but 8% higher than the five-year average. Gala apples led in storage with 19.4 million bushels, followed by Red Delicious at 17.1 million and Granny Smith at 15.3 million. Washington remained the top-producing state with 107.4 million bushels. New York’s supply increased to 10.3 million bushels, while Michigan held 6.1 million bushels, falling below last year's and the five-year average.
Italy's apple prices increased by 4.71% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.78 per kilogram (kg) in W8, with a 3.49% month-on-month (MoM) increase due to stronger export demand and a gradual tightening of supply as the season progresses. Improved sales in key European markets, particularly Germany and France, have supported the price recovery. Additionally, stable domestic consumption and reduced stock levels compared to earlier weeks have contributed to the upward trend. However, YoY prices dropped by 5.82% due to overall weaker international demand and increased competition from other apple-producing countries, which have kept market pressure on Italian exports.
Apple prices in the US remained steady at USD 1.29/kg in W8, with a 2.38% MoM increase and a 6.61% YoY increase due to tighter fresh apple supplies compared to last year, despite overall storage levels remaining above the five-year average. The 5% YoY decline in fresh apple storage, particularly in Michigan, has contributed to upward price pressure. Additionally, strong demand for Gala and Granny Smith apples, which are among the top stored varieties, has supported pricing. However, the ample supply in Washington and New York has helped stabilize prices weekly, preventing further increases.
Chile's apple prices dropped by 9.47% to USD 1.53/kg in W8, with a 38.80% MoM and 18.18% YoY drop due to weak international demand and increased competition from other Southern Hemisphere suppliers. Despite a projected 10% growth in exports for 2025, profitability remains challenged by high freight costs and currency fluctuations, which have impacted pricing. Additionally, stricter European certification requirements, such as LEAF compliance, have added pressure on exporters, potentially limiting access to key retail markets. The ongoing decline in Chile’s apple production has also contributed to market volatility, though industry experts anticipate a recovery as demand strengthens in Latin America.
In W8, South Africa's apple prices increased by 3.85% WoW and MoM to USD 1.08/kg due to stronger export demand, particularly from Europe and Asia, as shipments continued to pick up pace. The seasonal tightening of supply, combined with improving market conditions, supported the price recovery. However, YoY apple prices dropped by 26.53% due to abundant production volumes and intensified competition from other Southern Hemisphere suppliers, which have kept overall market pressure high. Additionally, logistical challenges and fluctuating exchange rates have influenced pricing dynamics, further contributing to the YoY decline.
Apple prices in France declined by 1.97% WoW to USD 1.49/kg in W8 due to steady domestic supply and a slight slowdown in consumer demand, which has eased upward price pressure. However, MoM and YoY prices increased slightly by 2.05% and 1.36% due to strong export demand, particularly from European markets, and limited availability as the season progresses. Despite the weekly decline, overall market conditions remain stable, with supply gradually tightening and supporting price resilience.
Chilean apple exporters should strengthen trade partnerships in Latin America to capitalize on growing demand and diversify beyond Europe. Exporters can target major retailers in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico by offering competitive pricing and promotional campaigns. Growers should focus on producing high-quality, certified apples that meet regional preferences, while logistics providers can optimize shipping routes to reduce costs and improve delivery times.
New Zealand apple exporters should actively promote their fruit’s consistent quality to gain market share as supply increases. Importers and retailers can highlight New Zealand apples’ freshness and reliability through targeted marketing campaigns and in-store promotions. Traders should secure supply contracts early to capitalize on shifting demand away from lower-quality American apples.
US apple traders and retailers should adjust procurement strategies based on storage trends, prioritizing varieties with stable supply like Gala, Red Delicious, and Granny Smith. Processors can leverage higher stock levels to secure long-term contracts at competitive prices. Washington growers should focus on maintaining quality amid high storage volumes, while Michigan suppliers may need to manage tighter inventories with strategic pricing.
Sources: Tridge, Freshplaza, Himachalheadlines, Portalfruticola, Redagricola, USDA
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