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Global olive oil production is projected to reach 3.37 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, marking a 32% increase from the previous year, according to the International Olive Council (COI). This surge is primarily driven by a recovery in Spain, where production is expected to rise by 51% to 1.29 million tons following two years of drought-related shortages. Other European countries, including Greece and Portugal, are also expected to see gains, although Italy's production will remain relatively low at around 225,000 tons. Outside the European Union (EU), Tunisia and Turkey are anticipated to experience significant increases. Olive oil trade is forecasted to exceed 1.2 million tons, while global consumption may grow by 10%, reaching 3.06 million tons. The table olive sector is also expected to see a production boost, particularly in the EU and Turkey.
Italian media have reported on the Guardia di Finanza investigation, which uncovered the fraudulent sale of foreign olive oil as 100% Italian olive oil with Protected Geographical Indication (PGI) status. The investigation revealed that an agritourism company in Alassino, managed by a married couple, sold 18,000 liters (L) of olive oil imported from EU countries, falsely labeling it as Taggiasco PGI olive oil. Additionally, a tax audit found that the company secretly sold olive oil worth USD 239,800 (EUR 230,000) without issuing invoices and evaded over USD 521,310 (EUR 500,000) in regional production taxes. The owners have been reported to the judiciary, with charges for alleged fraud pending.
Spain's olive oil market has seen a significant boost in quality, as revealed by a recent analysis from the Organización de Consumidores y Usuarios (OCU). The study found that 23 popular olive oil products now meet the stringent criteria to be classified as extra virgin olive oil (AOVE), showcasing excellent quality, a major improvement from previous years when fraud was detected. Interestingly, several white-label brands now rank among the best, offering AOVE with positive sensory qualities at an average price of USD 1.56 (EUR 1.50) lower than premium brands. Leading white-label oils such as Oleoestepa, Auchan Bio Ecológico, and Hacendado have risen to the same quality level as more established brands, potentially driving a recovery in consumption, which had declined by 24% the previous year.
Turkey's olive sector is poised for a record-breaking year in 2024/25, with a target to produce 475,000 tons of olive oil and 750,000 tons of olives, aiming to reach USD 1 billion in exports. This growth is underpinned by a strategy to increase annual exports to 200,000 tons of olive oil and 100,000 tons of olives, targeting key markets in Spain, Italy, the United States (US), Germany, Romania, and Iraq. Despite a challenging export environment due to recent government restrictions on bulk olive oil exports, the sector is optimistic about recovery, leveraging new production levels and exploring duty-free access to major trade partners like the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK). However, concerns persist about the capacity of international markets to absorb the anticipated surplus.
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Olive oil prices in Italy have decreased by 1.08% WoW, 4.92% MoM, and 3.92% YoY, settling at USD 10.04/kg in W52. This decline follows recent price surges driven by supply constraints stemming from summer droughts, autumn rains, and labor shortages that significantly impacted production. The current price drop is a temporary adjustment, likely influenced by improved short-term availability in the market. However, prices are anticipated to rise again in the coming weeks due to ongoing challenges, including a forecasted 32% decline in Italy’s olive oil production for the 2024/25 season, which is expected to tighten supply further.
In W52, olive oil prices in Tunisia reached USD 4.30/kg, reflecting a slight WoW decline of 0.92%, indicating relative price stability. However, prices saw a significant MoM drop of 24.96%, attributed to increased global supply. Improved yields across major olive oil-producing regions have contributed to a projected 32% rise in global production for the 2024/25 season, reaching 3.375 million tons. Tunisia, as a key producer, has played a vital role in this growth, which has eased market pressures and offered consumers financial relief.
With global olive oil production expected to rise by 32% to 3.37 million tons in 2024/25, exporters such as Spain and Turkey should capitalize on improved yields by exploring new markets and strengthening trade relationships in high-demand regions like the US, Germany, and Iraq. Export associations and major producers in Spain and Turkey should coordinate with trade offices to negotiate preferential agreements and duty-free access with key importers, particularly the EU and UK.
The global market faces challenges from olive oil fraud, which undermines consumer trust and damages the reputation of authentic products. To combat this, producers should implement stricter traceability systems, such as blockchain technology, to guarantee product authenticity and quality. Industry groups should introduce certification schemes and promote awareness campaigns emphasizing authentic PGI and PDO products.
Sources: Tridge, Agro Popular, Food Farkty Oli Merca, UKR Agro Consult
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