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Prices of onions, potatoes, and other winter vegetables have reached a three-year low, offering relief for consumers but causing challenges for farmers. Previously sold at USD 0.33 to 0.41 per kilogram (kg) in W2 and USD 0.49 to 0.66/kg in Dec-24, potatoes are now priced at USD 0.16 to 0.25/kg in various markets. According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB), potato prices have decreased by 55% month-on-month (MoM) and are 25% lower year-on-year (YoY) due to increased supply. This marks a three-year low for potato prices.
Data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) reveals the growth of Egyptian potato exports in the year ending in 2024. Potato export value reached approximately USD 409.13 million during the first 10 months of 2024, marking an increase of about USD 17.7 million compared to the same period in 2023 when the value was USD 391.39 million. Potatoes remain a significant Egyptian export, and alongside other raw materials, the total value of Egyptian exports for this period amounted to around USD 4.17 billion, up from USD 3.73 billion in 2023, reflecting a USD 434.96 million increase.
The potato harvest in Morocco's Doukkala region has ended, but many growers have faced significant difficulties securing satisfactory prices. Challenges include high seed costs, drought, water shortages, and rising production expenses. Despite these issues, growers are being offered prices that cover only half the production cost, which led to a second consecutive year of financial losses for local growers.
Romania's potato production continues to decline due to rising seed costs and labor shortages. In 2024, the country's potato output hit its lowest level in eight years, according to the National Institute of Statistics, despite Romania housing nearly one-third of the European Union's (EU) potato farms. The EU's average potato yield is about 35 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), while Romania's yield in 2024 was significantly lower, estimated at only 14.8 mt/ha. The drought and heat experienced during 2024 further exacerbated the decline in production. Despite these issues, the demand for potatoes continues to grow.
In W3, wholesale potato prices in France increased by 2.78% week-on-week (WoW) and MoM, reaching USD 0.37/kg. Potato growers have been facing challenges such as a limited supply of seeds, leading to higher seed prices. Additionally, adverse weather conditions, including heavy rainfall, have caused delays in both planting and harvesting. Climate change is intensifying the hydrological cycle, worsening extreme rain and flood risks, and further disrupting agricultural activities. Despite quality issues from a drier 2024 harvest compared to the previous year, market participants anticipate improved processing potato availability throughout the 2024/25 season compared to the 2023/24 season.
In W3, wholesale potato prices in the Netherlands remained steady WoW at USD 0.26/kg but decreased by 16.25% YoY. This decline is primarily due to a significant increase in production, with the 2024 harvest reaching 7.6 million metric tons (mmt), a substantial rise of over 16% compared to the average of the previous five years. The production expansion was driven by a 7% increase in the area dedicated to storage potatoes, reflecting years of development work and opening new opportunities for producers. Despite this, trading activity quickly picked up at the beginning of the year, with seasonal trends. Market participants report limited supply, with many producers holding potatoes in storage, optimistic about higher prices in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY).
In W3, German wholesale potato prices saw a significant decrease of 16.29% YoY, dropping to USD 0.62/kg, as the ongoing harvest has pushed prices downward. This drop is due to an exceptionally good harvest in 2024/25. The Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture expects Germany to produce around 12.7 mmt, a 9% YoY increase and 17% above the multi-year average, thanks to a 9% YoY expansion in cultivated areas. Although warm, humid weather and heavy rainfall have caused challenges like blight for farmers, the quality of the potatoes remains good. Potatoes are considered the fourth most important staple food globally, following rice, wheat, and corn, with China leading production. In Germany, Lower Saxony dominates with a 45.5% share of the cultivated area.
In W3, potato prices in Pakistan decreased by 4.55% WoW and 25% MoM to USD 0.21/kg. This significant price drop is primarily due to an abundant supply resulting from a substantial increase in potato production. Pakistan has risen to the global top ten in potato production, with over 8 mmt produced in 2024 due to increased cultivation area and enhanced farming practices. However, recent adverse weather conditions, including smog and fog in Punjab province, are projected to cause a 20% reduction in per-acre yield for the 2025 potato crop. Despite this anticipated decrease, the current market is experiencing a surplus from previous harvests, leading to the observed price decline.
In W3, Egypt's wholesale potato prices decreased by 5.88% WoW and MoM and 25.70% YoY, reaching USD 0.16/kg. The price drop during this period is due to the increasing market supply. Moreover, other vegetables, including tomatoes, peppers, and eggplant, are experiencing similar price drops. Potatoes are grown in Egypt in three seasons, and the current market supply is from the Nile season harvest in several governorates, including Minya, Dakahlia, Beheira, and Menoufia. Moreover, Myanmar markets have recently been opened to Egyptian potato exports, contributing to the market dynamics.
With seasonal price fluctuations and potential storage capacity issues, stakeholders in countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and France should invest in enhanced storage infrastructure and logistics to manage surplus production and minimize losses during peak harvest times. Efficient storage and supply chain management will allow growers to control stock levels, reduce price volatility, and capitalize on seasonal price increases, improving profitability.
Egyptian potato exporters should strategically expand into key markets such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa), the EU, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Myanmar. These regions offer substantial opportunities due to rising demand for high-quality potatoes, changing dietary habits, and strategic geographic advantages. By focusing on fresh and processed potato sectors, leveraging existing trade agreements, and targeting retail, food service, and wholesale distribution channels, Egypt can diversify its revenue streams, mitigate price fluctuations, and ensure stable income for growers. Expanding into these markets will also help balance supply and demand, preventing price declines from negatively affecting local farmers.
Stakeholders in regions like Romania, Morocco, and Pakistan should closely monitor weather patterns, particularly drought and rainfall risks. Adapting crop management practices to mitigate these risks, such as optimizing water use and adjusting harvest timing, could help reduce potential losses. Reducing weather-related risks will help stabilize production costs and prevent significant price volatility due to weather disruptions.
Sources: Tridge, Egypt Today, Euro News, Fresh Plaza, The Financial Express
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