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Argentina's milk production is projected to grow by 5.7% in 2025, reaching 11.19 billion liters (L), driven by improved climatic conditions, better milk-to-input price ratios, and rising domestic and export demand. However, challenges such as economic volatility, high feed costs, and ongoing climate risks persist. In 2024, over 4% of dairy farms shut down in Argentina, impacting supply. The government has allocated a 2,007-ton quota for dairy exports to Colombia, including concentrated milk and milk powder, to be fulfilled by year-end 2025. Stable economic and climatic conditions will be critical for achieving these goals.
Ecuador produces approximately 5.2 million L of milk daily, involving 285,000 producers, 75% of whom are small-scale. However, high levels of informal commerce (50 to 55%) hinder transparency and access to state benefits. The indexed milk price is set at USD 0.50/L, adjusted for quality parameters, with a minimum price of USD 0.42/L. Efforts to boost formality include a digital registry for transparency and compliance.
The dairy sector seeks to expand international markets, with protocols for exporting dairy products to China finalized in 2024. Current exports represent only 1% of production, but Chile, Angola, and Egypt are being explored as export markets. Stagnant domestic milk consumption, at 90 to 100 L per capita annually, reflects economic constraints, worsened by droughts reducing production by 30 to 40% in southern regions. The National Dairy Council is addressing these challenges through public-private collaborations, aiming to improve competitiveness and open new markets.
Rising temperatures in India are causing a significant drop in milk production, with Kerala reporting a 30% decline, translating to a USD 30.12 million (INR 250 crore) monthly loss. Factors like shrinking grazing land, water scarcity, and high feed costs are straining the dairy sector, which relies heavily on women farmers. Experts emphasize adopting scientific measures such as better ventilation, mist systems, water sprinkling, and nutritional supplements to mitigate the impact. Initiatives by organizations like Milma and Kerala's Dairy Development Department aim to provide incentives and improve farmer earnings amidst the crisis.
Milk production in the United Kingdom (UK) from Apr-24 to Dec-24 totaled 9,333 million L, a 0.7% year-on-year (YoY) rise and 2.5% above the five-year average for Dec-24. While initial challenges hindered early-year output, growth resumed in Sep-24. Mild December temperatures and adequate rainfall supported production, though early Jan-25’s cold snap may impact upcoming data. Stable milk prices and a favorable milk-to-feed price ratio have bolstered production, despite reliance on supplementary feed due to lower-quality silage. The 2024/25 UK milk season is forecasted to grow by 0.9% compared to the previous year.
Zimbabwe's dairy industry is expected to grow in 2025, building on steady production in 2024 despite adverse El Niño conditions. The sector achieved its 115-million L target in 2024, showcasing resilience despite high feed costs, aging infrastructure, and erratic power supply. Illegal dairy imports and limited access to quality nutrition further strain the industry. The Zimbabwe Association of Dairy Farmers (ZADF) is advocating for policies to lower production costs, protect farmers, and improve efficiency through self-produced feed. Partnerships with universities, research institutions, and government agencies are enhancing breeding programs, nutrition, and disease control. Regular farmer training and government support are vital for sustaining growth and competitiveness. Final projections for 2025 will be released in January.
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In W3, Germany's milk prices surged to USD 4.36 per kilogram (kg), a 63.30% week-on-week (WoW) increase, a 21.11% month-on-month (MoM) increase, and a 4.56% YoY increase, reaching levels similar to W3 2024 (USD 4.17/kg). This sharp rise is attributed to seasonal variations, start-of-year high demand, adverse weather conditions, reduced production, and processing delays. A 3.3% YoY decline in the dairy cow population and seasonal milk yield reductions further tightened supply. Ongoing market instability suggests continued price fluctuations in the coming weeks.
In W3, Belgium's milk prices declined to USD 3.75/kg, marking a 3.60% WoW decrease, a 4.58% MoM drop, and a significant 25.15% YoY decline. This downward trend indicates stabilization toward more typical price levels after late 2024's elevated prices, which had surged due to supply constraints. The current decrease is driven by weakened demand and increasing supply availability as winter progresses. Seasonal factors, such as cows producing more milk during the cooler months, have also contributed to the price decline. Further stabilization is expected as supply and demand find equilibrium.
In W3, milk prices in the Netherlands rose sharply to USD 2.73/kg, showing a 25.23% WoW increase and a 26.98% MoM rise, reaching a level similar to W3 2024 (USD 2.71/kg), with only a modest 0.74% YoY increase. This significant surge can be attributed to seasonal factors and strong start-of-year demand. High local and international demand, coupled with market stabilization after previous price declines, is keeping prices elevated. The upward trend reflects both a recovery in market confidence and persistent cost pressures, suggesting that prices may remain volatile in the near future.
In W3, milk prices in France dropped to USD 2.94/kg, reflecting a 3.61% WoW decrease, a 6.37% MoM drop, and a 5.16% YoY decline. This downward trend signals a market correction following the higher prices in 2024, which was driven by supply constraints due to disease outbreaks. With improved disease prevention measures and more stable winter weather, supply has begun to recover, helping ease prices. This stabilization suggests that the market is returning to more normal levels after the previous disruptions.
Polish milk prices have shown significant variation in recent weeks. After a sharp drop in W2 2025, marking the lowest prices since W40 2024, prices rebounded strongly in W3 2025, increasing by 30.93% WoW to USD 3.09/kg. Despite this substantial recovery, prices remained relatively stable MoM with a slight decrease of 0.64%. However, prices are 8.04% lower YoY, reflecting a better supply situation this season compared to last year. The current price dip is largely due to a recovery in milk supply, which is improving as seasonal conditions stabilize and production levels rise.
Argentina, Ecuador, and Zimbabwe can boost dairy exports by targeting Latin American and African markets. Argentina’s government and dairy export associations should focus on exporting whole milk powder, condensed milk, and cheese. Ecuador's Ministry of Agriculture and dairy producers should expand exports of skimmed milk powder, yogurt, and cheese. Zimbabwe's government and the Zimbabwe Association of Dairy Farmers should explore exporting powdered milk and cheese to underserved African nations. Securing new trade agreements and improving product quality through certifications and compliance will increase export value.
All countries, with support from governments, agricultural bodies, and dairy farmers, should invest in climate-resilient practices such as water-efficient irrigation, drought-resistant feed crops, and energy-efficient systems. These actions will mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure long-term production stability. Particularly in India and Zimbabwe, where climate risks are more pronounced, sustainable farming initiatives will reduce operational costs and attract environmentally-conscious markets.
In collaboration with tech companies and agricultural ministries, dairy farmers should adopt digital solutions such as Ecuador’s digital registries and advanced dairy farming techniques in India. Implementing automation and data-driven practices will improve farm efficiency, transparency, and product quality. Governments and private-sector partnerships must facilitate the integration of these technologies, ensuring accessibility for small-scale farmers and promoting sector-wide productivity.
Sources: Tridge, AHDB, Canal E, Diario Mendoza, El Mercurio, Krishak Jaga, News Day ZW,
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