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The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) maintains its 2025 global wheat production forecast at 795 million metric tons (mmt), nearly unchanged from its initial Mar-25 estimate and in line with 2024’s level. While wheat production in Ukraine will remain below the five-year average due to war-related disruptions and dry weather, other major producers show mixed trends. In the European Union (EU), the output is projected to rise 12% year-on-year (YoY) to 135.5 mmt due to increased planting and improved yields following 2024’s weather setbacks. Russia's production is set to decline due to low soil moisture and reduced acreage, while the United States (US) also anticipates a drop in output due to drought-stressed winter wheat and lower yields. Canada may expand wheat acreage amid higher prices, but lower yields could keep production steady similar to 2024, though still above the five-year average.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Bangladesh is experiencing a shift in demand for wheat and corn, particularly for food and feed use. Wheat production remains flat at 1.1 mmt in 2024/25, covering only 14% of national demand. However, shorter winters, rising temperatures, and the absence of improved wheat varieties are expected to constrain production, gradually reducing acreage and yields over time.
According to the USDA, India will harvest a record 115 mmt of wheat in the 2025/26 season, citing favorable weather and record sowing across 32 million hectares (ha) above the five-year average. The Indian Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers echoed this projection last month, forecasting 115.3 mmt for 2024/25, a 2% YoY increase. However, despite improved domestic supplies, the USDA expects India to maintain its wheat export ban imposed on May-22 due to persistent price pressures. High import duties of 40% continue to discourage wheat imports, even with relatively low international prices. Procurement has already surpassed 2 mmt, well above the 0.45 mmt recorded during the same period in 2024, driven by early harvests in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. The government aims to procure 31 mmt of wheat in 2025/26 under its Minimum Support Price (MSP) scheme. This target exceeds the 26.6 mmt purchased during the previous season. Punjab (12.4 mmt), Haryana (7.5 mmt), Madhya Pradesh (6 mmt), Uttar Pradesh (3 mmt), Rajasthan (2 mmt), and Gujarat (0.1 mmt) will lead the procurement efforts.
Morocco’s National Office of Cereals and Legumes (ONICL) has reduced the flat rate subsidy on milling wheat imports to USD 1.91 per quintal for Apr-25, responding to global wheat prices stabilizing. Previously, the subsidies were at USD 4.00 in Jan-25, USD 3.83 in Feb-25, and USD 4.02 in Mar-25 as part of efforts to maintain stable domestic stocks. The fluctuating subsidy reflects Morocco’s strategy of adjusting support based on world market trends, with activation triggered when soft wheat prices exceed USD 73.51 per quintal. Despite the recent cut, Morocco remains committed to securing wheat imports amid falling domestic production and has extended the import subsidy program through the end of 2025.
In W15, Russian free-on-board (FOB) wheat prices stood at USD 0.25 per kilogram (kg), remaining stable week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM). Prices increased 19.05% YoY. Russia’s global wheat market share is forecasted to drop to 20% by the end of the 2024/25 agricultural season as lower harvests, reduced profitability for exporters, and strong yields from competitors weigh on performance. A quota limit, a strong ruble, and farmers' resistance to lowering prices will further influence export volumes. In Mar-25, Russia exported only 1.78 mmt of wheat, 2.9 times less than the previous year, according to the Russian Grain Union (RGU). Despite earlier forecasts, exports to 21 countries, including major buyers like Egypt, Bangladesh, and Sudan, also declined in volume.
The 4.17% WoW increase in United States (US) FOB wheat prices to USD 0.25/kg in W15 is primarily due to a combination of factors. Firstly, adverse weather conditions, particularly in key wheat-producing states like Kansas and Oklahoma, have led to concerns about the 2025 wheat harvest, with reports of reduced yield forecasts due to drought and unseasonably warm temperatures impacting crop development. According to the USDA's Apr-25 crop progress report, drought stress has been reported in the southwestern Plains, which has lowered the anticipated production for the 2025/26 season. Moreover, stronger global demand for wheat, particularly from importing nations like Egypt, Türkiye, and countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, has spurred export demand, further supporting price increases.
In W15, wholesale wheat prices in France averaged USD 0.24/kg, rising 4.35% WoW and 14.29% YoY, primarily due to tightening supply expectations and ongoing weather-related risks to the 2025 wheat crop. The French Ministry of Agriculture and Food (MAA) reported that persistent wet conditions in key wheat-growing regions such as Hauts-de-France and Grand Est delayed spring fieldwork and limited planting progress, raising concerns over yield potential. As of early Apr-25, only around 80% of the planned soft wheat area had been successfully planted, compared to 95% at the same time last year. In addition, there are rising concerns over fungal diseases due to excess moisture, which could further reduce quality and output. On the demand side, steady international buying interest from North African countries such as Algeria and Morocco, traditionally large buyers of French wheat, has kept export channels active.
In W15, Ukraine’s FOB wheat prices averaged USD 0.25/kg, showing no change from the previous week or month but reflecting a 25% YoY increase. This YoY surge is primarily due to reduced wheat output in the 2024/25 season, with the Ukrainian Grain Association forecasting a drop to 19.2 mmt, down from 22.5 mmt in the previous year. The decline is due to a reduction in sown area estimated at 4.2 million ha in 2025 versus 4.7 million ha in 2024. Due to geopolitical and logistical challenges, farmers shifted to more resilient or higher-margin crops. Moreover, strong demand from traditional buyers, including Egypt and Türkiye, has supported price stability despite limited short-term fluctuations. Continued Black Sea shipping risks and increased freight and insurance costs have also contributed to firmer FOB price levels.
Governments and exporters should strategically diversify their customer base through trade promotion missions, bilateral agreements, and tailored logistics planning. For example, Ukraine could utilize the Danube ports to reach EU buyers and circumvent Black Sea security risks. Meanwhile, India could focus on expanding wheat access to Sub-Saharan African countries via concessional terms. At the same time, investment in infrastructure, including rail-to-port connectivity and customs digitization, would help reduce costs and delays. Overreliance on a few key markets (e.g., Egypt or Bangladesh for Russian and Ukrainian wheat) makes exporters vulnerable to geopolitical shifts or demand shocks. By tapping into emerging or underserved markets and improving transport resilience, exporters can maintain volume and profitability even when traditional routes falter. India’s large wheat stockpile and high MSP procurement underscores the importance of having diversified markets ready when export bans eventually lift.
India and Morocco should enhance wheat market stability by implementing dynamic buffer stock strategies tailored to seasonal trends and procurement capacity. In India, where the government targets procurement of 31 mmt of wheat in the 2025/26 season, strategic management of buffer stocks can help control inflation and ensure food security. This includes timing the release of stocks based on price signals and regional demand-supply gaps while minimizing long-term storage costs and spoilage. Similarly, Morocco, which frequently adjusts its wheat import subsidy, can better manage its domestic availability by synchronizing subsidy disbursements with global price movements and domestic stock levels. A well-structured rotational stock system, based on predictive modeling of harvest volumes and demand trends, would allow both countries to respond more effectively to price shocks and supply disruptions, thus reinforcing domestic market resilience.
Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt, three major North African wheat importers, stand to gain from coordinated regional procurement, shared storage infrastructure, and joint logistics initiatives. These countries regularly source wheat from France and Russia and face similar challenges like freight volatility, port congestion, and shipping delays. By forming a regional wheat import alliance or procurement consortium, they can negotiate better freight and insurance rates, align import timing with harvest and price cycles in supplier countries, and create shared contingency plans for supply disruptions. For example, shared port facilities or inland storage depots could cut logistics costs and reduce duplication in infrastructure investment. Moreover, by standardizing quality specifications and leveraging economies of scale, the bloc could increase competitiveness in international tenders.
Sources: Tridge, UkrAgroConsult
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