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In 2024, Russia exported approximately 1 million metric ton (mmt) of sugar, marking a 30% year-on-year (YoY) increase and the second-highest export volume in its history, according to the Eurasian Sugar Association (ESA). Exports may reach 850 thousand metric tons (mt) by year-end due to anticipated global price declines, though market conditions support continued export growth.
Raw sugar production rose sharply from 45 thousand mt in 2023 to 260 thousand tons in 2024, with a forecasted output of 550 thousand mt. The number of processing plants is set to increase from six to nineteen. The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) region, with a demand of 700 thousand mt, is seen as a key market due to logistical advantages and favorable trade terms. Russia's raw sugar exports offer stable supply, lower storage costs, and reduced exposure to global price volatility.
As of April 2, 2025, sugar beet sowing in Russia reached 239 thousand hectares (ha), up from 220.5 thousand ha a year earlier and exceeding five-year averages, according to the Union of Sugar Producers of Russia (Soyuzrossakhar). The early start is attributed to low soil moisture and warmer spring forecasts, with sowing underway across the Southern, North Caucasian, Central, and Volga Federal Districts.
The Ministry of Agriculture projects a slight increase in total sugar beet acreage to 1.17 million ha in 2024, with further growth possible near underutilized factories, particularly in the Central Black Earth Region. While early sowing may boost yields, concerns remain about moisture deficits due to a dry winter. However, recent snowfall in some regions may improve soil conditions.
Russia produced 6.055 mmt of sugar as of March 21, 2025, down from 6.624 million tons a year earlier. Despite lower output, high sugar beet digestibility led to a 6.9% YoY increase in relative processing efficiency. The final 2024/25 season output is projected at 6.3 to 6.35 mmt, slightly below last season’s 6.9 mmt.
despite the temporary closure of several factories for routine maintenance. Unlike previous years, sugar prices have remained steady at around USD 1.11 per kilogram (TZS 3,000/kg), down from highs of USD 3.71/kg (TZS 10,000/kg) in 2024. The shift follows a new policy, officially endorsed in June 2024, transferring sugar import and reserve responsibilities from private producers to the National Food Reserve Agency (NFRA).
As of March 31, 2025, national sugar stocks totaled over 147,000 mt across key producers. An additional 150,000 mt imported by the NFRA is being held as a strategic reserve. While most factories are shut for maintenance until Jun-25, favorable weather has helped maintain stability. However, local producers express concern over market oversaturation due to tax-free imports, which they claim are undermining domestic sales and operations.
In W15, Brazil's sugar prices fell by 2.04% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.48/kg, primarily due to the weakening Brazilian Real. Despite this decline, the outlook remains tight, with Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowering its 2024/25 sugar production forecast from 46 mmt to 44 mmt. This adjustment reflects the ongoing impact of drought and high temperatures on sugarcane yields. The reduced production estimate signals constrained domestic supply, which could limit export availability and provide upward pressure on prices in the medium term, especially if global demand remains strong. While the recent price dip reflects short-term currency fluctuations, persistent weather challenges and lower output may sustain elevated price levels through the current season.
The United States (US) sugar prices held steady at USD 0.39/kg in W15, showing no weekly change, yet declined by 9.30% month-on-month (MoM) and YoY. This sustained drop reflects broader market uncertainties driven by escalating global trade tensions, notably the US President’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and retaliatory measures from China. Furthermore, the recent imposition of a 17% reciprocal tariff on sugar imports from the Philippines adds to the pressure, potentially raising costs for US importers. Although these measures have not yet disrupted domestic pricing, they introduce volatility and may strain sugar supply chains. If trade frictions persist or expand, they could lead to tighter import margins and eventual upward pressure on domestic prices. In the longer term, sustained uncertainty may prompt buyers to seek alternative suppliers or influence adjustments in import strategies, potentially affecting market stability.
In W15, Mexico’s sugar prices fell to USD 1.05/kg, down 0.94% WpW and a decline of 41.01% YoY. The substantial annual decline underscores persistent pressure on the domestic sugar market, driven by oversupply concerns and logistical disruptions. The recent resolution of a nearly three-week protest by sugarcane producers in Ribera del Río Hondo is expected to ease short-term distribution bottlenecks, particularly in the Yucatán region. With sugar transport resuming, improved supply flow may contribute to a greater market balance.
Pakistan’s sugar prices reached USD 0.55/kg in W15, reflecting a 12.24% yearly increase from USD 0.49/kg. Despite this upward trend, the domestic market remains stable due to sufficient supply levels and projected production continuity. According to the Ministry of Industries and Production (MoI&P), total sugar production for the 2024/25 season reached 5.769 mmt as of April 7, 2025. With an average monthly consumption rate of 0.55 mmt, current stockpiles, bolstered by carryover reserves and additional beet sugar expected between May-25 and Jul-25, are deemed sufficient to cover domestic needs through the second W46 2025. This supply assurance is expected to limit upward pressure on prices in the near term. Furthermore, the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) plans to begin the 2025/26 crushing season on November 1, supporting market continuity.
Exporters should strengthen trade ties within the CIS, leveraging Russia’s logistical advantages, stable supply, and reduced storage costs to secure long-term contracts. This will help offset potential revenue declines from falling global prices in 2025.
With Brazil facing weather-related supply constraints and the US sugar market under pressure from trade tensions, Russian exporters should stay responsive to shifts in global demand. Flexible pricing strategies and diversification into value-added products could help maintain export competitiveness.
Sources: Tridge, Spec Agro, Agro Investor, Business Recorder
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