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The global dairy market stabilized in 2024, reaching 682 million tons in volume and USD 216.2 billion in value, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.3% through 2029. Growth is driven by rising demand in Asia, particularly India, and steady expansion in Africa and Southeast Asia. This is supported by urbanization and a shift from unpackaged to packaged products. E-commerce is now the fastest-growing sales channel, while private label brands are gaining traction across regions. Health, convenience, and sustainability are key drivers of innovation, with consumers seeking products that support digestion, immunity, and protein intake. In the drinking milk segment, demand remains strong in developing countries, with functional and affordable offerings, especially private labels, growing in popularity. Plant-based milk alternatives are expanding rapidly, though still niche, driven by health and ethical concerns.
Colombia’s Bolsa Mercantil has launched bi-weekly dairy auctions—covering powdered milk, ultra-heat treatment (UHT) milk, and cheeses—since Mar-25 to boost national production and market reach, directly benefiting 350,000 producing families. Backed by the Price Stabilization Fund, the program recorded over USD 6.76 million (COL 29 billion) in 2024 transactions, including 1,400 metric tons (mt) of powdered milk and 3 million liters (L) of liquid milk. In 2025, an initial USD 582.78 million (COL 2.5 billion) will be allocated for seller compensations. Open to national producers and service providers, the auctions require participants to engage through registered brokerage firms.
Chocontá, Colombia, is strengthening its milk production and commercialization through coordinated efforts by the departmental administration, public entities, and academic institutions. Central to this strategy is the integration of Aprolecho into the 'Compramos Tu Cosecha' program, which supports wider product distribution, including to institutional markets like the School Feeding Program (PAE). Collaborations with associations aim to establish a departmental technical table to improve production of dairy and other crops, while a planned partnership with the University of Cundinamarca seeks to create a specialized lab to boost quality and competitiveness. This initiative promotes cooperative models and product diversification, positioning Chocontá to meet growing market demands.
Indonesia’s plan to import 2 million cattle by 2029 to reduce its over 80% reliance on milk imports and support a national free-meal programme has sparked concern among local dairy farmers. While the initiative aims to boost local production to meet an added demand of 8.5 million metric tons (mmt) of milk annually, farmers cite challenges such as limited land, feed shortages, and disease risks. Past outbreaks, like foot and mouth disease (FMD), highlight the need for robust veterinary infrastructure. As the government expands import sources, including Brazil, and allocates 90,000 hectares (ha) for cattle breeding, farmers urge stronger disease management and policy support.
New Zealand has launched public consultations to shape a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India, aiming to strengthen economic ties and unlock dairy sector potential. With India producing 24% of the world’s milk but still importing USD 50 million in dairy products annually from New Zealand, the agreement could boost exports of over 1,500 dairy products, particularly ingredients for India's food industry. Trade officials and industry leaders see opportunities for mutual growth, including job creation and business development, while also advancing cooperation in areas like animal health and biosecurity.
Ukraine's dairy exports experienced strong growth in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, with revenues reaching USD 89.77 million, a 62% increase from the previous year. The export volume rose by 21%, totaling 31.14 thousand tons. A key driver of this growth was the export of milk products, particularly butter, condensed milk, and cream, which made up significant shares of the export market. Condensed milk and cream saw a 60% volume increase compared to the previous year, while butter exports surged by 262%. Overall, the export value of milk and cream products reached USD 24.03 million, reflecting a 52% increase from 2024.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest supply and demand report forecasts continued milk production growth in 2025, supported by larger cow inventories and improved yields. As a result, prices for butter, cheese, nonfat dry milk, and whey are projected to decline. Class III and IV prices are expected to fall, leading to a reduced all-milk price of USD 21.10/cwt. Dairy imports will shrink due to added duties on butter fats and milk protein products, while fat-based exports—especially butter—are rising. However, exports of skim milk powder and whey are weakening.
Uruguay’s dairy sector faces growing instability due to declining milk production, severely affecting small cooperatives like Calcar in Tarariras, which recently ceased operations amid financial strain and producer withdrawals. With nearly 10 out of 54 supplying facilities closing, the crisis echoes earlier closures like the Carmelo plant in Apr-24. Industry leaders, including the National Institute of Milk, cite low milk volume—not processing capacity—as the core issue, threatening cooperatives that process 75% of industrial milk. While dairy remains more profitable than agriculture or livestock, weak investor interest and limited domestic market growth highlight the sector’s need to explore international opportunities.
In Q1-2025, Vietnam's dairy imports reached USD 347 million, marking a 42% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This surge reflects a growing demand for dairy products in the country. Experts emphasize the need for increased oversight to ensure the quality of imported dairy products while maintaining a competitive market for both consumers and local producers.
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In W15, powdered milk prices in Belgium reached USD 3.85 per kilogram (kg), marking increases of 1.58% week-over-week (WoW), 0.26% month-over-month (MoM), and 4.05% year-over-year (YoY) driven by persistent supply-side pressures despite stable national production. Domestically, rising farming costs, labor shortages, and an aging farmer population continue to constrain supply, limiting responsiveness to rising demand. Across the European Union (EU), similar structural issues, such as inflationary input costs and demographic challenges, are impacting production outlooks, reinforcing regional price strength. High global demand is also contributing to the upward trend seen in Belgium.
In W15, powdered milk prices in the Netherlands reached USD 2.34/kg, reflecting a 0.43% WoW increase, a 0.85% MoM decrease, and a 5.88% YoY rise. Over the past month, prices have remained volatile, with the recent MoM drop attributed to a seasonal surge in milk production, supported by favorable weather and strong pasture regrowth. This has temporarily boosted supply and softened prices nationally. Regionally, spring typically brings higher milk output across the EU, and the Netherlands exemplifies how climate-driven supply increases can ease price pressure. However, despite this temporary dip, WoW and YoY prices have increased, supported by expanding global dairy demand, particularly from Asia, while international supply constraints and long-term structural concerns maintain upward pressure on prices.
In W15, powdered milk prices in France rose to USD 2.77/kg, showing a 2.21% WoW and 2.59% MoM increase, though still down 16.82% YoY. Over the past couple of months, prices have remained lower than in earlier periods of the year, primarily due to a rebound in milk production driven by warmer weather and improved pasture conditions that significantly increased supply. This surge offset the effects of persistent high production costs. The YoY drop reflects this local oversupply. However, both WoW and MoM prices have edged higher as the market begins to correct toward more typical levels. This rebound is supported by stable demand, ongoing structural cost pressures across the EU, and expectations of tightening supply in the medium term, even as short-term yields remain high.
As consumer preferences shift towards functional and health-focused products globally, dairy companies should prioritize the development of functional milk-based products. Markets such as India, Vietnam, and Southeast Asia are seeing increasing demand for dairy products that support digestion, immunity, and protein intake. Meanwhile, in mature markets like the US and Europe, consumers are seeking lower-sugar, high-protein, and sustainable dairy alternatives. Expanding offerings in these categories can unlock growth across diverse regions and meet rising demand for healthier options.
E-commerce is the fastest-growing sales channel globally, especially in regions like Southeast Asia, Africa, and India, where urbanization and internet penetration are rapidly increasing. Dairy companies should focus on strengthening online distribution networks to cater to changing consumer purchasing habits. Strategic investments in e-commerce platforms and cold chain logistics are crucial to meet the demand for fresh dairy products, particularly in regions where traditional retail infrastructure remains underdeveloped.
Sources: Tridge, Agro Info, Agro Portal UA, Dairy News, Farmer PL, Veeteelt
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