Original content
As of March 31, 2025, India's sugar production for the 2024/25 season reached 24.76 million metric tons (mmt), with 95 mills operating across key sugar-producing states. Uttar Pradesh has produced 8.75 mmt, with 48 mills still active, and production is expected to continue until mid-to-late Apr-25. Maharashtra contributed 8 mmt, with only six mills remaining operational. Meanwhile, Karnataka recorded 3.95 mmt, with two mills still operating. Additional mills in Karnataka are set to restart during the special season from June to September. The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has revised its production estimate to 26.40 mmt, after diverting 3.5 mmt for ethanol production.
The Indian government is currently consulting with various ministries and stakeholders regarding the proposal to increase the Minimum Selling Price (MSP) of sugar. Industry representatives have called for an increase from USD 0.35 to 0.45 per kilogram (INR 31 to 39.14/kg), citing the widening gap between production costs and the stagnant MSP since 2019. Despite these concerns, the Minister of State for Food and Consumer Affairs, stated that the current ex-mill price is considered reasonable, and sugar mills are covering production costs, partly due to revenues from by-products like bagasse and molasses. The government has also allowed the export of 1 mmt of sugar to improve liquidity and ensure timely payment of cane dues, with 83% of cane dues cleared for the 2024/25 season as of March 21, 2025.
Sugar prices in Pakistan surged nearly 30% year-on-year (YoY) during Ramadan, reaching their highest level in a year. The price increased to USD 0.50 to 0.64/kg (PKR 140 to 180/kg), straining household budgets amid high per capita consumption exceeding 25 kg annually. Experts attribute the spike to alleged supply restrictions by sugar mills, exacerbating the impact during Ramadan, which ended on March 30.
Pakistan is considering deregulating its sugar sector amid persistently high prices and renewed concerns over alleged market manipulation by sugar mills. The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has tasked the Ministry of National Food Security with assessing the potential impact of deregulation on prices, supply, and storage. While proponents argue that full deregulation could improve market efficiency, critics cite past failures in the wheat sector as a cautionary example. The Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) continues to monitor the industry for collusion, having previously imposed fines on sugar mills and the Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA), though legal proceedings remain stalled.
Russia's sugar beet sowing began earlier than usual in 2025, covering 239,000 hectares (ha) as of April 2—surpassing last year's area and five-year averages. Driven by low soil moisture and warmer spring forecasts, sowing has commenced across major regions including the South and Central Black Earth. While early sowing may boost yields, dry winter conditions could limit productivity. The Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation (MinSelkhoz) expects only a modest increase in total sown area, though there is potential for further expansion near underutilized factories. Meanwhile, sugar output as of March 21 reached 6.055 mmt, down from 6.624 mmt last year, but final production for 2024/25 is projected at 6.3 to 6.35 mmt.
Brazil's sugar prices increased to USD 0.49/kg in W14, reflecting a 2.08% rise both week-on-week (WoW) and month-on-month (MoM) from USD 0.48/kg. This price surge is largely driven by the strength of the Brazilian Real, which has supported the competitiveness of Brazilian exports. Despite this recent uptick, Brazil's sugar production outlook for the 2024/25 season has been adjusted downward. Brazil's National Supply Company (Conab) revised its production estimate from 46 mmt to 44 mmt, citing adverse weather conditions, including drought and excessive heat, which have negatively impacted sugarcane yields. The reduced 2024/25 forecast indicates ongoing supply constraints, potentially keeping prices high. Lower production may limit exports, affecting global markets. If production improves in 2025/26, prices could stabilize or decrease, though global demand will still influence price trends.
In W14, United States (US) sugar prices fell to USD 0.39/kg, reflecting a 9.30% weekly decrease and a 13.33% YoY drop. This decline is partly attributed to the market effects of global trade tensions and concerns, including the US President's 'Liberation Day' tariffs and China's retaliatory tariffs on US imports. Additionally, the US imposed a 17% reciprocal tariff on imports from the Philippines, which may increase sugar prices for US importers, potentially leading to price volatility. While the tariffs may not have an immediate direct impact on the US local market, it could create uncertainty in sugar supply chains, influencing both short-term price fluctuations and long-term market stability.
Mexico's sugar prices remained stable at USD 1.06/kg, with no weekly changes, but experienced a significant decline of 40.78% YoY compared to last year’s price of USD 1.79/kg. This decrease highlights the pressure on domestic sugar markets in the past year. The recent end to a nearly three-week protest by sugarcane producers in the Ribera del Río Hondo region is expected to have notable short-term impacts. The protest had caused disruptions in sugar transportation, particularly affecting Yucatan. With the blockade lifted, sugar distribution across the country will resume, helping further stabilize supply.
The protest achieved its goal of raising sugar prices from USD 36.45 to 37.91 per bag (MXN 750 to 780/bag) to USD 47.63 to 51.03/bag (MXN 980 to 1,050/bag), which may help offset recent declines. Producers also secured tighter export oversight to prevent market saturation, a move that could support price stability going forward.
With India’s 2024/25 sugar production revised to 26.40 mmt and ethanol diversion impacting available volumes, exporters should align closely with government export quotas and explore forward contracts to secure stable international demand. Exporters can also leverage the special season in Karnataka (June–September) to time shipments effectively and avoid domestic supply disruptions.
Importers and traders should closely monitor Pakistan’s deregulation discussions and the US tariff developments, which may trigger market volatility. Diversifying supplier bases and incorporating flexible sourcing contracts can help mitigate risks from sudden regulatory or pricing shifts in these regions.
Brazilian exporters should capitalize on elevated sugar prices driven by production downgrades and a strong Real by securing forward sales agreements. Establishing long-term buyer relationships during this period of tight global supply can ensure revenue stability amid continued weather-related uncertainties.
Sources: Tridge, Nikkei Asia, Chini Mandi, Agro Investor, Trading View, Investing, the Manila Times, El Heraldo de México
Read more relevant content
Recommended suppliers for you
What to read next
