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In spring 2025, prices for new (early-season) potatoes in Bulgaria surged to record levels, at times reaching approximately USD 5.22 per kilogram (kg), matching the price of pork. This sharp increase stems primarily from a significant reduction in potato cultivation. Over the past two decades, Bulgaria’s potato-growing area has more than halved, leaving domestic production able to meet only around 50% of national demand. Wholesale prices have mirrored this trend. While agricultural market prices averaged USD 1.68/kg from late Mar-24 to early Apr-24, they rose to USD 2.71/kg in spring 2025, marking a 62% year-on-year (YoY) increase, the highest recorded for any fruit or vegetable in Bulgaria’s commodity markets. Market observations in Sofia confirm this spike, with new potatoes sold in small quantities for USD 2.38 to 2.96/kg.
The Uttar Pradesh government has launched a strategic initiative to boost potato cultivation by establishing an International Potato Research Centre (CIP) in Agra and setting up Centres of Excellence in Saharanpur and Kushinagar. Uttar Pradesh currently leads India in potato production, contributing over 35% of the country’s total output. The state’s average yield exceeds the national range of 23 to 25 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), highlighting strong potential for further improvement. However, the state faces a key challenge: the lack of region-specific research and innovation suited to its diverse agro-climatic zones. Officials noted that existing research often fails to reach farmers in a timely or practical way. While the National Potato Research Centre is in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, only two regional centers, Meerut and Patna, serve the rest of the country. This limited infrastructure slows the transfer of knowledge from lab to land. As a result, many farmers must rely on stored potatoes from cold storage for sowing each year due to limited access to high-quality seed varieties.
Ukrainian potato producers are again slashing prices due to an oversupply in the market. As storage quality deteriorated rapidly, many farmers rushed to offload their remaining stocks. In W14, wholesale prices have dropped to USD 0.31 to 0.56/kg, averaging 14% week-on-week (WoW) lower. This decline stems from a surge in locally grown and imported potatoes, particularly high-quality Polish potatoes from last season, which are priced competitively with domestic ones. Despite the drop, current prices remain 28% YoY higher than early Apr-24. However, with large volumes still on the market, further price reductions remain a strong possibility.
In W14, France's potato prices declined to USD 0.38/kg, marking a 5% month-on-month (MoM) and 19.15% YoY decrease. This downturn is primarily attributed to a substantial increase in domestic supply, as the 2024 harvest reached 7.7 million metric tons (mmt), the highest in 30 years, representing a 12.2% rise over the previous year. The expansion of cultivated land, which grew by 11% from 158,677 hectares (ha) in 2023 to 178,900 ha in 2024, significantly contributed to this surge in production. For 2025, projections indicate that France's potato production will stabilize at approximately 7.95 mmt, maintaining the high levels achieved in 2024. This sustained output will meet the growing demand from the frozen potato products industry, which has seen a significant increase in consumption, particularly among younger demographics.
In W14, Germany's potato prices decreased 1.52% WoW and 14.47% YoY to USD 0.65/kg. This decline is mainly due to a notable domestic supply increase, driven by a yield recovery following improved weather conditions. According to the German Federal Statistical Office (DESTASTIS), potato production in 2024 reached approximately 10.9 mmt, up from 10.3 mmt in 2023. This 5.8% YoY increase in production has exerted downward pressure on prices. Moreover, subdued export demand,d and a rise in cold-stored inventories further contributed to the softening of wholesale prices during the week.
In W14, Pakistan's potato prices remained steady at USD 0.17/kg for the fourth consecutive week, marking a 5.56% YoY decline. This price stability reflects a combination of favorable production and market conditions. Farmers in Punjab, the country’s leading potato-growing region, actively harvested their crops, significantly increasing the volume of fresh potatoes entering the market. Encouraged by last season's performance, many producers expanded their acreage, and favorable weather conditions supported improved yields, further boosting overall supply. Moreover, stable input costs, especially for fertilizers and fuel, helped reduce the financial burden on farmers, allowing them to maintain profitability despite lower prices. On the demand side, weaker interest from export markets reduced external pressure on domestic supply. Meanwhile, improvements in the internal distribution network ensured the efficient movement of potatoes across key consumption centers.
In W14, Egypt’s potato prices held steady WoW at USD 0.11/kg, marking a 60.71% YoY decline. This drop persists despite strong export demand, driven by expanded access to new markets such as Tajikistan and the Balkans and renewed activity in traditional destinations like Spain and the Gulf. Exports to Russia have also risen significantly, supported by reduced customs duties to curb food inflation. Egypt’s potato exports will increase by 10 to 15% YoY in 2025. However, the surge in supply fueled by expanded cultivation areas has outpaced demand, exerting downward pressure on prices. At the same time, average free-on-board (FOB) prices have fallen to USD 250 to 320/mt, a 30 to 40% decline compared to last year. This price weakness is further compounded by a doubling of production costs, leaving producers with narrowing margins despite the favorable export outlook.
In Uttar Pradesh, India, enhancing potato seed quality and localized farming techniques can significantly boost productivity. Region-specific varieties such as Kufri Jyoti, Kufri Pukhraj, Kufri Badshah, and Kufri Chandramukhi should be developed to address local challenges. Promoting these innovations through farmer education programs and providing financial incentives for adopting advanced seed varieties will result in better yields, improved potato quality, and increased profitability. This approach will also reduce farmers' dependency on stored potatoes for sowing, making cultivation more sustainable while enhancing the region's overall agricultural productivity.
In Bulgaria, a government or industry-led initiative should create a strategic potato reserve to stabilize prices and ensure a consistent supply throughout the year. This reserve would help mitigate price fluctuations caused by reduced domestic cultivation and weather-related challenges. Additionally, introducing price floors or forward contract systems would enable farmers to lock in prices during harvest, providing financial security and encouraging long-term planning. The drastic reduction in Bulgaria's potato-growing areas and subsequent price surges underscore the need for such a measure. A strategic reserve would ensure more predictable prices, protecting farmers from market volatility and consumers from sharp price increases, leading to a more stable potato market overall.
Enhance cold storage infrastructure and improve logistics to maintain potato quality during transport, especially for long-distance exports. Increase exports to high-demand, higher-margin markets, such as the European Union and the Middle East, by securing quality certifications (e.g., GlobalGAP) and streamlining the export process. Egypt faces pressure on potato prices due to oversupply despite strong export demand. Expanding into higher-value markets and ensuring quality during transport will help increase profitability and reduce price fluctuations in the domestic market. Egypt can boost revenue and maintain a competitive edge by ensuring potatoes reach these markets in premium condition. Improving storage and logistics will preserve potato quality, enhancing Egypt’s reputation as a reliable exporter.
Sources: Tridge, East Fruit, Fresh Plaza, United News of India
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