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In Brazil, a major global exporter of orange juice, futures prices have plunged 50% this year despite expectations of a strong 2025/26 orange crop, expected to begin harvesting in May. Prices for frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) dropped sharply from a Jan-25 peak of USD 5.14 per pound (lbs) to USD 2.42/lb in Mar-25, reflecting a 28.7% year-on-year (YoY) decline. This comes after a drought-hit harvest of 228.52 million boxes last season, with current estimates for the upcoming crop ranging between 260 and 320 million boxes. Although concerns persist due to citrus greening and ongoing climate risks, improved rainfall and continued grower investment have fueled optimism. Nevertheless, global demand for orange juice remains subdued, and any pass-through of lower futures prices to retail markets is expected to occur gradually.
Italy’s 2024/25 citrus season concluded on a strong note, with orange sales surging 50% YoY, driven by strong global demand and the success of late-season varieties. Early market entry, enabled by supply shortages in competing countries like Spain, allowed Italian producers to capture consumer attention as early as February. Introducing virus-free varieties, such as the Navel VCR, known for their high sugar content and larger size, further boosted prices and export volumes. While domestic consumption saw a slight dip, rising demand from Eastern and Western Europe supported strong international sales at competitive prices. Despite weather-related challenges that shortened the harvest window, the sector showcased resilience and growing export potential in global markets.
Orange consumption has declined significantly in Spain, the United Kingdom (UK), and the Netherlands. Spanish households have reduced their per capita intake from 22 kilograms (kg) in 2009 to just 13 kg in 2024, a trend driven by insufficient industry promotion, particularly among younger consumers. Spanish oranges are also facing increasing competition from emerging orange exporters such as South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey. To retain its leadership in the global citrus market, Spain’s industry must adopt a unified marketing strategy, with experts advocating for an annual investment of USD 67 million (EUR 60 million) over at least six years to revitalize consumer interest. Industry leaders call for innovation in promotional approaches, including introducing ready-to-eat formats, alongside a concerted effort to enhance product quality and operational efficiency to remain competitive against rising global rivals.
Florida's orange production for the 2024/25 season is projected at just 522 thousand tons, a 35% drop from the previous year and the smallest harvest in 95 years. This sharp decline is due to the severe impact of Hurricane Milton, which struck significant citrus-producing counties in Oct-24, compounded by the continued spread of Huanglongbing or citrus greening disease (HLB). The forecast reflects a 32% YoY decline in early, mid-season, and navel oranges and a 38% drop in Valencia oranges. Despite these challenges, Florida remains vital to the United States (US) orange juice industry, contributing 49% of domestic production in 2023/24. While fruit prices, including those for oranges, increased in early 2025, the combination of reduced crop volumes and rising production costs continues to place significant pressure on the state’s citrus industry.
In W14, Spain's orange prices increased by 2.50% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.41/kg, marking a 5.13% month-on-month (MoM) increase and 41.38% YoY increase. The price rise is due to tighter local supply resulting from reduced planting and declining consumer demand, which has discouraged production over the years. While consumption continues to fall, particularly among younger generations in Spain and key European markets like the UK and the Netherlands, the limited promotional efforts and lack of innovation in product formats have failed to stimulate new demand. At the same time, Spanish oranges are facing stiff competition from cost-effective exporters such as Egypt, Morocco, South Africa, and Turkey, further straining market dynamics. As supply tightens and production costs rise, prices have firmed despite weaker demand, especially in off-peak periods.
South Africa's orange prices declined marginally by 0.50% WoW to USD 2.00/kg in W14, reflecting a 24.24% MoM decrease. This downward trend is due to logistical challenges, including port delays and infrastructure inefficiencies, which have disrupted export schedules and led to an oversupply in the local market, thereby exerting downward pressure on prices. Additionally, adverse weather conditions have impacted fruit quality, further affecting market value. However, YoY prices surged by 156.41%, driven by increased production costs and strong international demand, particularly from European and Asian markets, as South African exporters continue to expand their reach despite facing logistical and regulatory hurdles.
Orange prices in Egypt surged by 20.83% WoW to USD 0.29/kg in W14, with a 26.09% MoM and a 38.10% YoY increase. This price rise is due to ongoing disruptions in Red Sea shipping routes caused by Houthi attacks, which have led to rerouted shipments and increased transportation costs. The diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope has extended delivery times by approximately two weeks, impacting the quality and availability of Egyptian oranges in key Asian markets . Consequently, exporters have redirected supplies to European and Middle Eastern markets, where heightened demand and limited competition have supported higher prices. Additionally, the suspension of harvesting by some growers, due to logistical uncertainties, has tightened domestic supply, further contributing to the price increase.
US orange prices increased slightly by 1% WoW to USD 1.01/kg in W14, with a 5.21% MoM increase due to tightened supply from Florida following severe weather events and ongoing citrus greening disease, which have significantly reduced harvest volumes for the 2024/25 season. The sharp cut in Florida’s output, down 35% YoY, has placed upward pressure on prices, particularly for juice-grade oranges, as Florida remains a key supplier to the domestic juice industry. However, YoY prices dropped by 29.37% due to lingering effects from an earlier oversupply in other states and imports from Mexico and South America, which previously tempered market prices. Despite current upward momentum, the market continues to balance reduced domestic production with broader supply sources.
In Italy, orange prices increased slightly by 3.09% WoW to USD 2/kg in W14, with a 27.39% MoM surge and an 11.73% YoY surge due to strong international demand and the successful close of the 2024/25 citrus season. Export momentum was bolstered by limited supply from key competitors like Spain, allowing Italian oranges, especially late-season varieties like the Navel VCR with high sugar content and larger calibers, to secure favorable positions in Eastern and Western European markets. This export-driven demand offset a slight dip in domestic consumption. Despite weather-related constraints shortening the harvest window, Italian growers benefited from early market entry and improved fruit quality, contributing to sustained high prices through the season’s end.
Italian citrus producers should expand plantings of late-season and virus-free orange varieties, such as Navel VCR, to maximize export opportunities and maintain market presence after competitors exit the season. These varieties offer higher sugar content, better size, and longer shelf life, which boost export appeal. Producers can also adopt staggered harvesting strategies and cold chain optimization to extend availability and meet Eastern and Western Europe's demand. This will help capture premium prices and strengthen Italy’s foothold in global citrus markets.
Spanish citrus exporters and retailers should jointly develop targeted marketing campaigns focused on younger consumers while introducing convenient ready-to-eat orange formats. This includes offering pre-peeled orange segments, snack packs, or chilled juice shots marketed as healthy, on-the-go options. These innovations can be promoted through digital channels, social media influencers, and in-store sampling to reconnect with health-conscious but convenience-driven demographics. By combining product innovation with consistent brand messaging, the industry can counteract declining consumption and reinforce Spain’s position in competitive export markets.
Sources: Tridge, Agribusiness, AgriFocus Africa, Freshplaza, Redagricola, Uniterra Sicilia Group Srl, USDA
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