W13 Salmon Update: Turkish Black Sea Salmon Exports Surge Amid Traceability Concerns, Trout Emerges as Competitive Alternative in Russian Market

Turkish Black Sea Salmon Exports Soar, Traceability Concerns Emerge

The Turkish Black Sea salmon industry boasts promising growth prospects, fueled by rising international demand. However, addressing traceability concerns and maintaining stringent quality control are essential to sustain this momentum and establish a strong global reputation for Turkish Black Sea salmon. Turkish Black Sea salmon exports during Jan-24 and Feb-24 reached USD 70.61 million, representing a remarkable 289% year-on-year (YoY) increase in value and a 164% YoY increase in volume with 13 thousand metric tons (mt) shipped. This growth surpasses the national average and sets a new record for the sector.

Far Eastern countries, particularly Japan, China, Korea, and Vietnam, exhibit a strong preference for Black Sea salmon, which benefits from a longer period (7 months) spent in seawater compared to lake-raised varieties. The Eastern Black Sea Exporters Association (DKIB) expresses optimism for the industry's future, highlighting the potential to increase exports to USD 2.5 to USD 3 billion, mirroring the success of the Norwegian salmon industry.

The industry faces a critical challenge related to the export of lake-raised salmon mislabeled as Black Sea salmon. This practice undermines the product's quality and reputation in international markets. DKIB urges the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry to implement stricter regulations and traceability measures, similar to those employed in fresh fruit exports. While the expansion of sea cages for salmon farming in Trabzon over the past 6 years is a positive development, ensuring proper expertise and adherence to quality standards remains crucial.

Trout Gains Ground on Russian Salmon Market

The Russian seafood market is experiencing a dynamic shift with trout gaining significant traction due to its affordability, increasing availability, and growing consumer preference for fresh and convenient seafood options. While salmon remains the preferred red fish, its dominance is being challenged by the rising popularity of trout. Trout sales witnessed robust growth in 2022, with a 60% increase in value and a 55% increase in volume compared to 2021. This momentum continued in 2023, with sales rising by 30% YoY in value and 25% YoY in volume compared to 2022. Chilled and defrosted fish is gaining traction among Russian consumers, evidenced by an 80% YoY increase in sales value in 2023 compared to 2022, and a 120% increase compared to 2021. This trend is accompanied by a decline in frozen trout sales, indicating a shift towards convenience.

Sales of pre-cut options like steaks, fillets, and cuts are increasing at a rate of 15% annually. This trend suggests a growing preference for products that are easier and faster to prepare. While not experiencing the same growth as trout, salmon sales in 2023 remained at similar levels to 2021. However, chilled and defrosted salmon witnessed a significant increase, particularly for retailers offering high-quality products with a 100% YoY increase in value compared to 2022 and a 150% YoY increase compared to 2021. Despite volatile wholesale prices for salmon and trout in 2023, the annual average remained relatively stable compared to 2022. Experts predict that 2024 is unlikely to see a significant rise in consumer prices due to reliable domestic aquaculture production and recovering import volumes.

Aquaculture production of salmon in Russia has witnessed a 75% increase over the past five years, reaching 158 thousand mt in 2023. Salmon imports in 2023 saw a 35% YoY increase in volume compared to 2022, exceeding 100 thousand mt. Trout offers a more affordable alternative to salmon while maintaining similar organoleptic properties. The availability of chilled trout and pre-cut options caters to the growing demand for convenience in food preparation.