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Trade4go
Mar 21st, 2025
Original content
Russia’s oilseed cultivation profitability is expected to remain at 42% in 2025, significantly higher than the 5% for grains, according to OleoScope. In 2024, profitability for sunflower reached 60%, soybeans 35%, and rapeseed 30%. High profitability has sparked increased interest in oilseed crops among Russian farmers, with prices for oilseeds 9 to 10% higher than in 2023. Oilseed planting areas are projected to expand to 18.5 million hectares (ha) in 2025, driven by growth in rapeseed and soybean, although sunflower acreage may slightly decrease. Oilseed flax is also seeing growth, with a 37% increase in planted areas over the last five years.
Russian scientists have created a hybrid sunflower with high stearic acid content, which could make Russia independent from palm oil imports. This new sunflower variety, developed by the All-Russian Research Institute of Oilseed Crops, produces oil with a stearic acid content of 13%, allowing it to solidify at +5°C or have a semi-solid consistency at +10°C. The oil is suitable for both the food and cosmetics industries, helping reduce reliance on imported palm oil. With sunflower cultivation areas increasing, Russia anticipates a crop of 18 million tons in 2025, up from 16.2 million tons in 2024, reinforcing the country’s push for industrial independence.
On March 20, Turkey’s Grain Board (TMO) will conduct an international tender to buy 18,000 tons of crude sunflower oil on a CFR basis. The delivery is scheduled between April 2 to 21, with shipments divided into 3,000-ton lots. Two batches are set to arrive at the Tekirdağ port, while four more are expected at İskenderun and/or Mersin. This marks Turkey's first sunflower oil import tender in the past two years.
Ukraine's sunflower oil exports have decreased significantly, with 2.4 million tons exported between Sep-24 and Feb-25, marking a 24% drop compared to the same period last year. This is the lowest export level since the 2016/17 season. The European Union (EU) remains the largest importer, with India emerging as a key market, increasing its imports fivefold. Feb-25 exports fell to their lowest point in 10 years, down 14% from Jan-25. However, a rise in sunflower sales in February may boost production and exports in March and April. Despite international competition, expected reduced sunflower oil supply from major producers may help maintain demand. Argentina’s seasonal oil increase could partially meet demand, limiting price increases.
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The price of Russian sunflower oil has seen a significant rise, reaching USD 1.11 per kilogram (kg), marking a 0.91% week-on-week (WoW), 1.83% month-on-month (MoM), and 37.04% year-on-year (YoY) increase. This upward trend is driven by strong demand from countries like India and Turkey, with exports up by 26% for the 2024/25 season. However, reduced supply due to drought conditions has strained both local and global sunflower oil production, resulting in lower-than-expected harvests and pushing prices higher. Despite fluctuations in exchange rates, the tight supply remains the primary driver, and while profitability for sunflower cultivation is still strong at 60%, there are concerns over a slight reduction in acreage for 2025, which could further exacerbate the supply constraints.
The price of Ukrainian sunflower oil has shown slight fluctuations, with a 0.88% WoW increase, remaining stable MoM in W11 at USD 1.14/kg, marking a 39.02% increase YoY. The modest rise in WoW prices is attributed to currency exchanges and market adjustments, while MoM stability reflects a balance in the market. Despite this stability, YoY prices remain significantly higher due to rising sunflower seed procurement costs, limited supply, and growing competition for raw materials, all of which have created strong demand and market constraints. However, prices are expected to decline in the near term as sunflower seed prices in Ukraine have dropped, primarily due to a reduction in global sunflower oil prices. This drop is linked to a shift in global demand and a continued decline in soybean oil prices, which could further pressure sunflower oil prices downward.
Argentine sunflower oil prices remained stable at USD 1.10/kg in W11, with no WoW or MoM change, though still reflecting a 30.95% YoY increase. Despite a decline in the Argentine peso, the appreciation of the currency against the USD this week helped maintain price stability. Over the past month, prices have remained relatively constant, but YoY prices remain significantly higher due to tightening domestic supply and strong global demand, further exacerbated by international shortages. Additionally, the expected 10% decline in global sunflower oil production for the 2024/25 season has added upward pressure on Argentina’s market, where demand for sunflower oil remains robust.
Russia’s development of a high-stearic sunflower hybrid presents an opportunity to reduce palm oil reliance. Exporters should promote this innovation to markets seeking sustainable and functional alternatives, particularly in the food and cosmetics industries. Encouraging adoption through targeted marketing and regulatory compliance could create a premium segment for this oil type.
Despite high oilseed profitability in Russia, reduced acreage for sunflowers may lead to tighter supply in 2025. Market players should closely monitor planting trends and adjust forward contracts accordingly. Additionally, Ukraine’s declining sunflower seed prices suggest an opportunity for processors to secure raw materials at lower costs before the global market adjusts.
Sources: Tridge, Agro Vesti, Farmers Guide UK, Interfax, Masrawy, Sinor, UKR Agro Consult
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