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Trade4go
Mar 21st, 2025
Original content
On March 13, operations in soybean processing plants in Argentina were halted due to a nationwide strike by the Union of Oil Workers and Employees (SOEA), protesting layoffs. The strike escalated following the intervention of national security forces at a protest outside biodiesel producer Explora SA, located in the Rosario agro-industrial belt. Despite a government-mandated conciliation order to suspend the strike, operations remain paralyzed. The Federation of Workers of the Oilseed Industrial Complex, Cotton Ginners, and Related Workers of the Argentine Republic (FTCIODyARA) union also joined the action, increasing disruption in Argentina, the world’s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal. Continued work stoppages could further impact soybean oil production and exports.
The supply of bottled soybean oil in Bangladesh's Dhaka markets has slightly improved in W11. However, it continues to fall short of demand. Retailers report insufficient stock, despite producers claiming to meet the demand. This shortage has persisted for about one and a half months, and although supply has improved somewhat, it remains below market needs. While dealers are now providing weekly supplies, the quantities are still limited. The government has acknowledged the issue and assured that the supply will normalize, though availability remains insufficient in several markets.
India
India’s soybean oil imports fell sharply by 36% month-on-month (MoM) in Feb-25 to 283,737 metric tons (mt), contributing to a 12% decline in total vegetable oil imports, the lowest since Feb-21. This drop, along with reduced sunflower oil shipments, has driven India’s edible oil stocks to a three-year low of 1.87 million metric tons (mmt) as of March 1, 2025. The decline in imports is expected to increase India’s vegetable oil purchases in the coming months, which could raise the United States (US) soybean oil futures and Malaysian palm oil prices. Despite rising palm oil imports from Indonesia and Malaysia, weak price competitiveness may limit further increases. India’s heavy reliance on global suppliers, including Argentina and Brazil for soybean oil, makes its market vulnerable to global supply and price fluctuations.
In the first half of the 2024/25 marketing year (MY), Ukraine increased its soybean oil exports by 52% compared to the previous season, reaching a record 245.4 thousand mt. Feb-25 exports rose 38% from Jan-25, totaling 59.1 thousand mt. Poland remains the largest buyer, though its share of total exports decreased from 73% to 61%. India significantly boosted purchases, receiving 25,000 mt, with Feb-25 deliveries to India rising by 77% compared to Jan-25.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its 2024/25 soybean oil use in biofuel production to 13.45 billion pounds (lbs), down from the previous forecast of 13.6 billion lbs. However, the agency’s soybean oil price outlook remains unchanged, as does the forecast for soybean planted and harvested areas. Global forecasts for 2024/25 show increased soybean crush, particularly in China and Argentina, while ending stocks are reduced due to lower stocks in China and Argentina. The season-average soybean price is projected at USD 9.95 per bushel, a USD 0.15 decrease from Feb-25.
The USDA reported new soybean oil sales on March 14, totaling 20,000 mt from the 2024/25 harvest, with undisclosed destinations. This is part of the routine reporting requirement for sales of 100,000 mt or more, which must be disclosed to the department.
Argentina's soybean oil prices decreased to USD 0.99 per kilogram (kg) in W11, reflecting both a 1% week-on-week (WoW) and 10% MoM drop, driven by lower crude oil and soybean prices. Additionally, a nationwide strike by oil workers has halted operations in soybean processing plants, leading to disruptions in production and exports. Initiated by SOEA and supported by other unions, the strike has caused significant operational delays, particularly in the Rosario agro-industrial belt, a key hub for soybean oil production. The ongoing work stoppages may further tighten supply and hinder exports, adding upward pressure on prices in the near term. If the strike persists, it could exacerbate market volatility, potentially limiting Argentina's soybean oil availability on global markets and pushing prices higher.
Brazil's soybean oil prices saw a 2.65% WoW increase, reaching USD 0.91/kg in W11. This uptick comes amidst the ongoing soybean harvest, which is progressing ahead of schedule, with 58.7% of the 2024/25 crop harvested as of late W10. While the Northern regions have benefitted from favorable rainfall, Southern Brazil faces drought, which could impact soybean yields, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul. Despite this, the overall outlook remains positive, with higher soybean production expected, especially in Mato Grosso, where yields have set a record. Increased soybean availability from the ongoing harvest in Brazil and Argentina is expected to ease soybean oil supply constraints. As a result, price pressures may ease in the coming months, with soybean oil prices likely to decline as supply increases.
In W11, US soybean oil prices decreased by 3.19% WoW, reaching USD 0.91/kg. This decline was driven by concerns over China’s 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil, which could lead to increased canola oil imports displacing US soybean oil in global markets. Additionally, expectations of large soybean crops in South America have added further pressure, creating uncertainty for US soybean oil prices.
In W11, soybean oil prices in the Netherlands rose to USD 1.15/kg, reflecting a 0.88% WoW increase and a 19.79% year-on-year (YoY) rise. As a key European trade hub, the Netherlands imports over 99% of its soybean supply, with the Port of Rotterdam serving as a vital point for re-exports across Europe. Increasing demand, particularly within the EU, coupled with the strengthening euro, may continue to support upward price pressures. However, potential supply chain disruptions or shifts in European renewable energy policies could lead to further price fluctuations.
Given the ongoing strike and its impact on soybean oil production and exports in Argentina, businesses reliant on soybean oil should consider diversifying their supply sources, particularly from Brazil and Ukraine, where production is increasing. Establishing contracts with alternative suppliers and investing in strategic partnerships could help buffer against prolonged disruptions. In addition, exploring oil blending strategies with other vegetable oils, such as palm or rapeseed oil, could help maintain supply consistency.
The persistent shortage of bottled soybean oil in Bangladesh presents an opportunity for international suppliers to increase shipments to meet growing demand. Businesses should work closely with the Bangladeshi government and local retailers to assess the feasibility of long-term agreements that ensure a stable supply. Additionally, exploring partnerships with regional producers and logistics providers could facilitate smoother distribution channels to combat the current stock limitations.
India’s sharp decline in soybean oil imports has led to low edible oil stocks, which could result in higher demand for global soybean oil supplies in the coming months. Importers should secure soybean oil contracts in advance to lock in favorable pricing before further price hikes occur. Additionally, exploring price-risk management tools, such as forward contracts or hedging strategies, can help stabilize costs and minimize exposure to volatile global markets, particularly with the fluctuations in US and South American production forecasts.
Sources: Tridge, Noticias Agricolas, UkrAgroConsult, Reuters, Trading View, Brownfield Ag News, Biodiesel Magazine, Prothom Alo, Successful Farming
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