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Egypt’s Valencia orange season is ending earlier than expected due to rising prices, a shortage of large-sized fruit, and logistical disruptions. Prices have surged by an average of 20% compared to last season, with variations between a 20% decrease and a 35% increase, particularly in Eastern European markets where medium-sized oranges are in high demand. The total harvest has declined by nearly a third, primarily due to extreme heat during flowering, while reduced export subsidies and stricter European Union (EU) regulations have further pressured pricing. Additionally, growing domestic demand for orange juice has intensified competition for supply, driving farmgate prices closer to export-level pricing. Despite these challenges, Egyptian oranges remain competitive against Spanish counterparts, though concerns persist over the market’s ability to sustain these price increases.
Morocco's orange supply has slowed after an early start to the season, with domestic demand absorbing much of the available Lane Late variety. Moroccan Navel oranges were on the market before Christmas, followed by the Salus variety in mid-January, but availability has since declined. Exporters are struggling to compete with Egypt's competitively-priced juice oranges. The Lane Late variety, typically shipped from April to June/July, is expected to reach markets beyond France, including Germany. While Morocco has historically been a strong citrus exporter, shipments have declined as more supply is redirected to Canada and the United States (US).
Orange production in Nepal's Gorkha district fell to 1.8 thousand tons this year from 2.3 thousand tons last year, reducing sales from USD 1.01 million to approximately USD 750 thousand. The decline results from plant diseases, reduced compost availability due to declining animal husbandry, and inadequate irrigation worsened by winter drought. Despite lower yields, farmers secured favorable prices by selling directly in local markets. To support recovery, the district is implementing an old orchard management program, offering a 50% subsidy on micronutrients, pesticides, and organic fertilizers to boost production. These initiatives aim to revitalize orange cultivation across 2.2 thousand hectares (ha) in the region.
The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) 2024/25 Florida all-orange production forecast stands at 11.6 million boxes, an increase of 100 thousand from Feb-25 but still 35% lower than last season. This includes 4.6 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges, reflecting a slight increase, and 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges. However, fruit size remains below average, and high droppage rates are expected. If realized, this forecast underscores Florida’s ongoing citrus decline driven by biological and weather-related challenges, raising concerns about market stability and the industry's long-term viability.
In Spain, orange prices increased by 5.41% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.39/kg in W11, with an 8.33% month-on-month (MoM) rise and an 18.18% year-on-year (YoY) surge. This price increase is due to a significant reduction in local orange production, influenced by adverse weather conditions, including severe flooding and prolonged droughts, which have severely impacted global orange crops, particularly in Spain. The flooding has led to the lowest global orange juice availability in nearly 50 years, causing an estimated USD 205 million in damages. The diminished supply has exerted upward pressure on prices, reflecting the market's response to the constrained availability of Spanish oranges.
In W11, South Africa's orange prices surged by 94.12% WoW to USD 2.64 per kilogram (kg), with a 95.56% MoM increase and a 149.06% YoY rise. This sharp price increase is driven by a tightening fresh orange supply, as a portion of export-quality oranges has been redirected to juice production due to higher local processing prices. Additionally, adverse weather conditions, including freezing temperatures in Limpopo, floods in the Western Cape, and strong winds in the Eastern Cape, have further constrained production. With robust demand from key export markets like the EU, the combination of reduced availability and strong market interest has exerted significant upward pressure on South African orange prices.
Orange prices in Egypt remained stable at USD 0.23/kg in W11, with a 4.55% MoM increase. This stability is primarily due to the devaluation of the Egyptian pound (EGP), which has made exports more competitive internationally but has reduced local growers' earnings. Additionally, regional conflicts, such as the Houthi conflict in the Red Sea, have disrupted trade routes to Asian markets, leading exporters to focus on the EU, where demand growth is limited. This shift has resulted in price reductions to secure sales, further pressuring domestic prices. However, the 4.55% MoM price increase may be due to seasonal factors such as fluctuations in harvest cycles, export demand, and domestic consumption patterns. As Egypt’s orange season progresses (December to April), periodic shifts in supply volumes can influence prices. Additionally, changing demand in key export markets and local consumption trends may also contribute to short-term price adjustments.
Orange prices in the US increased slightly by 1.05% WoW to USD 0.96/kg in W11 due to a marginal uptick in local demand and stable supply levels. However, MoM prices dropped slightly by 1.03% and declined significantly by 29.93% YoY, due to increased competition from imports and a long-term decline in consumer demand for fresh oranges. Despite a 35% reduction in Florida's orange production forecast for the 2024/25 season, the market has adjusted to these supply constraints, and the availability of imported oranges has helped stabilize prices.
In W11, Italy's orange prices increased by 3.29% WoW to USD 1.57/kg due to a significant reduction in local orange production. Estimates indicate a potential 50% decrease for the 2024/25 season, primarily due to severe drought conditions in Sicily. However, there is a drop of 3.68% YoY in orange prices due to increased competition from imported oranges, particularly from South Africa, leading to market saturation and exerting downward pressure on local prices.
Egyptian orange exporters should prioritize premium markets willing to absorb higher prices, such as the Middle East and Asia while adjusting packaging to meet the strong demand for medium-sized fruit in Eastern Europe. Additionally, processors can capitalize on rising domestic juice demand by securing supply contracts with growers early to lock in stable pricing.
Orange farmers in Gorkha should adopt disease-resistant saplings and improve soil fertility by integrating cover crops and organic compost alternatives, such as green manure or bio-fertilizers. Additionally, farmer cooperatives can implement efficient drip irrigation systems to mitigate drought impact and sustain production levels.
Florida orange growers should adopt advanced pest and disease management strategies, such as introducing resistant rootstocks and optimizing nutrient programs to combat citrus greening. Additionally, implementing precision irrigation and weather monitoring systems can help mitigate environmental stress and reduce fruit drop.
Sources: Tridge, CITRUSBR, EastFruit, Freshplaza, The Rising Nepal, USDA
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