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Argentina's wine industry in San Juan faces significant challenges as the grape harvest is expected to decline by 15 to 20% due to adverse weather conditions, including a heat wave. These difficulties are further compounded by limited resources among producers. Rising production costs, driven by a 25% increase in the official dollar and a 110% surge in overall expenses, have further strained the industry. Low domestic purchasing power and export difficulties add pressure, forcing producers to sell at low prices to stay competitive. With a shorter harvest window due to delayed starts and early completion, the industry faces economic and climatic instability.
The first shipments of Indian grapes arrived last week in Europe, with exports starting 10 to 14 days later than usual and volumes down by 15 to 30% as some exporters prioritized the domestic market. Last season, India shipped 10 thousand containers to Europe, oversaturating the market, but this year’s exports are projected to decline by 25% to around 7.5 thousand containers. This reduction has strengthened market conditions, leading to better price levels and steady sales. Unlike last year, when packaged grapes from Peru and South Africa were abundant, this year’s lower supply from these regions has made loose Indian grapes more competitive. Most exports are Thompson Seedless, which continues to thrive under India's climatic conditions.
Peru’s grape industry has overcome climatic and logistical challenges to achieve record growth, reinforcing its position as a key agricultural export sector. Despite challenges from Cyclone Yaku, water shortages, and container constraints at the Port of Callao, advanced irrigation systems and strategic crop management in Piura and Ica ensured a strong harvest. The current campaign, running from Jul-24 to Mar-25 or early Apr-25, has reached 684 thousand tons. It reached nearly USD 1.977 billion, a 34% year-on-year (YoY) increase in volume, and a 28% YoY rise in value. With March shipments expected to push exports beyond USD 2 billion, the industry continues to expand globally, despite a 5% YoY decline in average prices to USD 2.89 per kilogram (kg). Ica leads production with 49% of output, followed by Piura at 37% and Lambayeque at 6%, underscoring the vital role of Peru’s coastal regions in grape cultivation.
Research from Cornell AgriTech highlights how rising global temperatures disrupt grape yields in New York, posing challenges for both growers and winemakers. Warmer autumns and unpredictable false springs alter grapevines’ natural budding cycles, increasing their susceptibility to late frosts. A three-year study analyzing 31 grape varieties found that wild grapes adapted to Northern winters, and commercial hybrids face heightened risks due to their early bud development. This shift challenges traditional breeding strategies, which have prioritized winter hardiness but now make certain cultivars more vulnerable to climate-driven threats. Understanding these impacts is essential for adapting vineyard management practices and mitigating climate change’s effects on grape production.
The price of Chinese Shine Muscat grapes in Vietnam has hit a record low, with wholesale rates dropping to around USD 0.55/kg (VND 14,000/kg). Once a luxury fruit, Shine Muscat entered the Vietnamese market in 2021 at approximately USD 9.79/kg (VND 250,000/kg) but has steadily declined due to rising production in China. Advances in farming and preservation techniques have ensured year-round availability, creating a market surplus. Despite the price drop, quality remains high, with retail prices now ranging from USD 1.17 to 2.35/kg (VND 30,000 to VND 60,000/kg), significantly lower than locally grown grapes. China remains Vietnam’s largest fruit supplier, accounting for 37% of total imports, with Shine Muscat now surpassing Red Globe and Kyoho as the most popular grape variety.
In W11, Chile's grape prices experienced a slight increase of 1.19% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.85/kg, marking a 14.86% year-on-year (YoY) rise. This YoY increase reflects strong overall demand, which has absorbed the projected 6.6% rise in production for the 2024/25 season, expected to reach 723 thousand metric tons (mt), leading to higher export volumes. However, prices declined month-on-month (MoM) by 2.30% due to short-term market saturation in key destinations, particularly the United States (US), where accumulated shipments have resulted in an oversupply, temporarily pressuring prices downward.
In W11, grape prices in Peru decreased by 5% WoW to USD 0.57/kg, marking a 6.56% MoM decline and a substantial 40% YoY drop. The price decline is primarily due to a significant increase in production, with the 2024/25 marketing year expected to reach 790 thousand mt, a 2% YoY rise, driven by improved weather conditions in key growing regions like Piura. However, despite the increased production, YoY prices have dropped significantly, likely due to heightened competition in international markets and a global oversupply, which have exerted downward pressure on prices.
Grape prices in South Africa increased by 4.55% WoW to USD 1.38/kg in W11 due to strong demand from key export markets, particularly the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK), which continue to account for a significant share of South Africa’s table grape exports. Additionally, lower supply from earlier peak-season volumes and logistical improvements have contributed to price recovery. However, MoM and YoY prices dropped by 4.83% and 13.75%, respectively, due to overall weaker market conditions, including subdued demand, intensified competition from other grape-exporting countries, and lingering supply pressures that have constrained price growth over a longer period.
In W11, India's grape prices experienced a slight decrease of 1.32% WoW to USD 0.75/kg. This marginal decline is primarily due to a temporary increase in local supply as the harvest season progresses, which typically runs from December to April, peaking between January and March. This seasonal influx has led to short-term market adjustments. However, prices have risen by 13.64% MoM and 7.14% YoY, driven by strong local demand, reduced export volumes due to lower yields, and elevated purchase prices reaching historic highs. The high quality of this season's grapes, including a significant share of colored varieties like Crimson, has further bolstered market prices.
Peruvian grape exporters should strengthen market diversification by targeting emerging destinations in Asia and the Middle East to reduce reliance on traditional buyers. Expanding shipments of premium varieties like Sweet Globe and Autumn Crisp can help offset price declines while improving cold chain logistics will ensure fruit quality in long-haul markets.
Indian grape exporters should focus on improving fruit quality and packaging to maximize value in the European market. Investing in better post-harvest handling, protective packaging, and branding for premium segments can help differentiate Indian grapes from competitors, ensuring stronger demand and higher prices.
Argentine grape producers in San Juan should focus on cost-efficient vineyard management and target niche export markets to maintain profitability. Implementing precision irrigation, bulk purchasing of supplies, and direct-to-consumer sales can help reduce costs. Expanding into premium organic or boutique wine segments can attract higher-paying customers and offset domestic demand challenges.
Sources: Tridge, Agraria, Eastfruit, Freshplaza, TCD, South African News, Telesoldiario, USDA, VN Express
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