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Trade4go
Mar 14th, 2025
Original content
In 2024, China imported 1.207 million metric tons (mmt) of sunflower oil, with Russia supplying 698,500 metric tons (mt), followed by Ukraine (245,600 mt) and Kazakhstan (115,300 mt). China’s domestic production covered only 105,000 mt of its 1.4 mmt of consumption. Sunflower oil accounted for 5% of China’s vegetable oil consumption, while soybean oil (28%) and rapeseed oil (27%) dominated. In 2025, China plans to introduce sunflower oil futures to manage market risks, signaling continued demand growth.
Marking a five-month low, India’s sunflower oil imports fell 22% month-on-month (MoM) in February to 226,000 tons as high global prices and increased domestic production reduced demand. Overall edible oil imports dropped 12% to 884,000 tons, while palm oil imports increased 36% to 374,000 tons. The decline in sunflower oil imports contributed to a 26% drop in India’s edible oil stocks, reaching a four-year low of 1.6 million tons. Analysts expect a potential rebound in imports by March, which could support global sunflower oil prices.
Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports in Feb-25 dropped to 325,000 tons, the lowest in nearly a decade and 14% below Jan-25’s level. Limited raw material availability has constrained production, though increased sunflower seed sales in Feb-25 may boost output and exports in the coming months. In the first half of the 2024/25 season, total exports reached 2.4 million tons, the lowest since 2016/17 and 24% below the previous season. The European Union (EU) accounted for 54% of shipments, while India became the top buyer for the first time in three seasons, importing 417,000 tons — five times more than a year ago. Despite rising global competition in vegetable oils, lower supply from key producers may support demand, though Argentina’s seasonal output increase could temporarily cap prices.
Between Jul-24 and Feb-25, the EU imported 1.24 mmt of sunflower oil, a decrease from the previous year’s 1.51 mmt. Ukraine remained the largest supplier despite the reduction, contributing significantly to EU imports. Weekly import volumes have also decreased, reflecting slower demand or supply constraints. Despite these fluctuations, Ukraine continues to be a dominant sunflower oil source in the European market.
Ukraine’s high oleic sunflower acreage in 2024/25 dropped to its lowest level since 2019/20 due to war-related disruptions, logistical challenges, unstable premiums, seed shortages, and adverse weather conditions. Production has followed a downward trend, with output shrinking for three consecutive seasons. In 2023/24, Ukraine produced around 250,000-270,000 tons of high oleic sunflower oil, down from 300,000-320,000 tons in previous years. Yield declines from heat and drought further worsened the situation.
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Yearly Change in Sunflower Oil Pricing Top Producers (W10 2024 to W10 2025)
In W10, sunflower oil prices in Russia reached USD 1.10 per kilogram (kg), marking a 0.92% increase week-over-week (WoW), a 2.80% rise MoM, and a 41.03% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The upward price trend is driven by strong demand from countries like India and Turkey, a 26% rise in exports for the 2024/25 season, and a reduction in local and global supply due to drought, all contributing to strained availability and pushing prices higher. Russia’s sunflower oil has been reduced due to multiple factors, including drought conditions that affected both local and global crop yields. These weather challenges have led to a lower-than-expected harvest, further exacerbating the tight supply. The limited availability has pushed prices up despite some fluctuations in the exchange rate.
Ukraine's sunflower oil prices saw a slight drop in W10, with prices at USD 1.13/kg, reflecting a 1.74% decrease WoW. This decline followed fluctuating global sunflower oil prices and limited trading activity. However, the overall price increased by 1.80% MoM and 43.04% YoY, driven by rising sunflower seed procurement costs, limited supply, and growing competition for raw materials. Despite the drop, prices remain high due to strong demand and market constraints, indicating potential support in the near term.
Argentina’s sunflower oil prices remained stable at USD 1.10/kg in W10, with no change WoW. A slight MoM increase of 0.92% was observed, likely due to Argentina's seasonal output increase, which temporarily capped prices. However, YoY, prices surged by 34.15%, driven by tightening domestic supply and strong global demand, compounded by international shortages. Additionally, the anticipated 10% decline in global sunflower oil production for 2024/25 further added upward pressure on prices in Argentina's market.
Given the fluctuations in supply and demand across multiple regions, companies should explore diversification in their sourcing strategies. Suppliers from Russia, Ukraine, and Argentina must continue to innovate in dealing with weather-related disruptions, export restrictions, and seasonal changes in output. Establishing alternative sources can mitigate risks from any one region's volatility.
With uncertainty surrounding global supply, particularly in countries like Ukraine and Argentina, businesses can benefit from hedging through future contracts or strategic stockpiling during less volatile periods. This would provide better flexibility during seasonal price hikes, like the current rise seen in Russia and Argentina.
Sources: Tridge, Agravery, Agro Digital, Agro Times UA, Rosng, Grain Trade, Super Agronom, UKR Agro Consult
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