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Egyptian orange exports are experiencing a slow season, with weaker demand across key markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa, except for Russia. A shortage of large-sized oranges, which are highly valued in Europe, has constrained shipments. Reduced export subsidies have pushed exporters to prioritize profitability over volume. In India, anticipated strong demand has been met with stiff competition from Chinese oranges and local production, further slowing exports. Meanwhile, disruptions in the Red Sea continue to affect trade routes. Despite these challenges, Egypt surpassed 2 million tons in citrus exports last season, though the value per ton declined compared to the previous year.
India, the world's third-largest citrus producer with an annual output of 16 million tons, primarily serves its local market. However, local production failed to meet growing demand, leading to a significant rise in orange imports. As a result, orange imports surged from under 10 thousand tons in 2009 to over 154 thousand tons in Mar-25. In response to this growing demand, Spain has successfully improved market access through a recent amendment to India’s import regulations. Published in The Gazette of India, the updated protocol permits Spanish exporters to perform mandatory cold treatment in transit rather than before departure. This change streamlines shipments and enhances trade viability. This milestone follows years of collaboration between Spanish authorities, the Valencian government, and citrus industry stakeholders.
Favored for their thin skin and sweet flavor, Japanese oranges, primarily cultivated in Myanmar’s Hsipaw Township, have become the top-selling fruit in Naungtaya Township. Demand is strong in major cities like Yangon, Mandalay, Myawady, and Hpa-an, with daily sales reaching 500 to 700 cases. Their popularity surpasses that of other local varieties, which have thicker skins and a milder taste, solidifying their dominance in the market.
Persistent heavy rains across Spain, particularly in the Valencian Community, Andalusia, and Murcia, have disrupted orange harvesting, restricting supply to storage and packing facilities. Meanwhile, mandarin demand was already high due to limited availability. At the same time, orange sales, which had been slower, are now drawing increased buyers’ concern. Excessive moisture raises potential quality issues for late-season mandarins, though no significant agricultural infrastructure damage has been reported. However, the rainfall has also replenished water reserves and lowered irrigation costs, providing long-term benefits for citrus production.
Spain's orange market has seen moderate price fluctuations in the 2024/25 season. Prices started at USD 92.44/100 kilograms (EUR 85/100kg) in Nov-24, dipped to USD 82.66/100kg (EUR 76/100kg) in Dec-24, and rebounded slightly to USD 85.92/100kg (EUR 79/100kg) in Jan-25. While this reflects an early-season downward trend, prices remain within historical ranges. Compared to other major European producers, Spain’s prices have been more variable, whereas Italy continues to have the highest prices, Greece faces a steady decline, and Portugal remains relatively stable.
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Orange prices in Spain remained stable at USD 0.37/kg in W10, reflecting an 8.82% month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) increase. This stability is primarily due to persistent heavy rains across key citrus-producing regions, such as the Valencian Community, Andalusia, and Murcia, which have disrupted the orange harvest. These adverse weather conditions have limited the supply of fresh oranges to storage and packing facilities, leading to reduced market availability. Consequently, the constrained supply has sustained higher price levels despite potential demand fluctuations.
In W10, South Africa's orange prices surged by 15.25% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.36/kg, with a 3.82% MoM rise and a 7.94% YoY increase. The price rise is driven by a tightening supply of fresh oranges. A 1% reduction in export volumes for the 2024/25 season has contributed to this, as higher processing prices have diverted more fresh oranges to juice production, limiting availability in the market. Additionally, increased demand from the European Union (EU), South Africa's largest export market, has further strained supply, contributing to the upward pressure on prices. The reduced fresh orange exports and robust international demand have led to the observed price increases.
Egypt's orange prices in W10 declined by 4.17% WoW to USD 0.23/kg, reflecting a 14.81% MoM decrease. This downward trend is due to a surge in overall supply. Increased production and higher export availability have outpaced demand, leading to downward price pressure. However, prices increased by 4.55% YoY due to rising demand from key markets such as Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the Netherlands, which collectively increased their purchases by 23%, accounting for 760 thousand tons of fruit.
In W10, orange prices in the US surged by 15.25% WoW to USD 1.36/kg, with a 3.82% MoM rise and a 7.94% YoY increase. The price increase is driven by reduced local production due to unfavorable weather conditions, including drought and storms, which have impacted yields. Additionally, the spread of citrus greening disease has further tightened supplies. At the same time, rising export demand from key markets, including the EU and the Middle East, has strained local availability, contributing to the upward pressure on prices.
Italy's orange prices fell slightly by 3.18% WoW to USD 1.52/kg in W10, representing a 10.59% MoM and YoY decrease. This decline is due to increased competition from imported oranges, particularly from South Africa, which continues to saturate the European market. This oversupply has weakened demand for locally produced oranges, despite steady consumption among Italian households. Additionally, production challenges in Sicily, including drought and torrential rains, have limited the availability of premium-quality oranges, further pressuring prices as consumers opt for more competitively priced imports. The growing market share of organic oranges, although still limited, has not been sufficient to offset the overall decline in pricing, reflecting ongoing challenges in stabilizing the domestic orange market.
Egyptian orange exporters should target high-value markets by emphasizing quality, branding, and certification. Prioritizing shipments of premium-grade fruit to Europe and Asia, where large-sized oranges are in demand, can improve profitability. Developing strategic partnerships with retailers and wholesalers in India can also help counter competition from Chinese and local oranges.
Spanish orange exporters should negotiate early contracts with buyers to lock in favorable prices and minimize exposure to market fluctuations. Establishing agreements with retailers and wholesalers before peak harvest periods can provide price stability and ensure consistent demand.
Sources: Tridge, Citrus Industry, AVA Asaja, European Commission, Freshplaza, GF Union, Portalfruticola
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