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Apple production in Jammu and Kashmir remains vital to the region's economy, with yield estimates of 2.06 million metric tons (mmt) for 2023/24 and 2.05 mmt for 2024/25. Exports fluctuated, totaling 1.85 mmt in 2023/24, while 1.31 mmt had been exported as of Feb-25. To reduce post-harvest losses, controlled atmosphere (CA) storage capacity is being expanded from 270 thousand metric tons (mt) to 307 thousand mt, with key hubs in Lassipora, Pulwama, and Aglar, Shopian. Quality control is enforced under various agricultural regulations, while the High-Density Plantation scheme now covers 836 hectares (ha). Over 50 thousand farmers and traders are registered on the Electronic National Agriculture Market (e-NAM) platform, boosting trade turnover to approximately USD 71.2 million in 2024/25. Infrastructure and market access are being strengthened through initiatives like the Holistic Agriculture Development Programme (HADP) and Rainfed Area Development (RAD), with an apple grading and processing center now operational in Doabgah Sopore.
India's apple market is seeing strong demand due to lower local production in Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir. While the local harvest peaks between August and October, imports ensure year-round availability, with Iran, Turkey, and Poland currently leading due to competitive pricing. Shipments from the Southern Hemisphere, including South Africa, Chile, and New Zealand, are expected to arrive soon. However, rising global apple prices, driven by lower European yields and increased demand for premium varieties, impact import costs. Meanwhile, ongoing investments in India's port infrastructure could improve trade efficiency by reducing shipping times and costs. As stocks in CA storage decline, reliance on imports is expected to rise in the coming months.
India's apple importers have quickly turned to European suppliers, particularly Italy and Poland, following Iran's temporary export ban. While the shift in sourcing has not yet affected prices, traders anticipate potential increases as buyers adjust to the new supply dynamics and competition for European apples intensifies. With Iran’s one-month export ban in place, Indian buyers are actively securing alternative supplies, further strengthening Europe’s role in the Indian apple market.
Although New Zealand’s apple industry is a relatively small global supplier, it is recognized for its high productivity and premium-quality fruit. Breeding programs led by organizations like Prevar and Plant & Food Research focus on developing innovative varieties like Dazzle, Rockit, and Sassy to meet evolving consumer preferences for crunch, flavor, and nutrition. Apple breeding is a long-term process, often exceeding 15 years, with rigorous testing for traits like firmness and storage viability. Advanced techniques, including controlled cross-pollination and fast-growth methods, help accelerate development while ensuring quality. Industry leaders advocate for the Gene Technology Bill to enhance breeding efficiency and address climate and pest challenges. While demand for New Zealand apples remains strong in Asia, there is a growing push to make locally bred-varieties more accessible to domestic consumers.
Poland’s apple season has seen rapid price fluctuations, benefiting growers but creating challenges for exporters. Strong demand has driven immediate sales of high-quality apples, pushing prices up, yet fixed pricing in local supermarkets and resistance from international buyers complicate exports. While higher prices enable growers to reinvest in orchards and equipment, exporters struggle with competition and shifting market conditions. Key apple varieties in large supply include Champion, Red Jonaprince, Idared, Jonagored, and Golden Delicious, while Gala, Ligol, and Mutsu remain scarce. Additionally, oversupply in some export markets has led to price drops and reduced margins. To maintain profitability, Polish exporters focus on market diversification to minimize competition in any single region.
South Africa’s apple market has introduced the Sassy apple, a New Zealand-developed variety now grown in the Ceres Valley. Characterized by its deep red color, bold sweetness, and crisp texture, the Sassy apple is currently available in limited quantities at select Pick n Pay locations. Supply remains low due to the orchards' young age, but production is expected to rise as the trees mature. With increasing consumer interest in new apple varieties, the Sassy apple’s entry represents a step toward greater diversification in South Africa’s apple market.
Ukraine has gained approval from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) to export fresh apples to Canada, creating new market opportunities for its producers. To comply with Canadian phytosanitary standards, growers, packers, and exporters must register with Ukraine’s State Service for Food Safety and Consumer Protection and adhere to strict pest control and orchard surveillance measures. This milestone aligns with Ukraine’s broader strategy to expand agricultural exports despite ongoing challenges.
The United States (US)-China trade conflict is reshaping global apple trade, with India emerging as a key destination for rerouted American apples. As US apples face restricted access to China, they are likely to enter India at lower prices, intensifying competition for local growers, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir. This influx could put downward pressure on domestic apple prices, as US exporters may offer discounts to attract Indian buyers and offset losses from the Chinese market.
In W10, Italy's apple prices remained steady at USD 1.78 per kilogram (kg) since W8, with a 4.71% month-on-month (MoM) increase due to stable export demand from key markets like Germany and France, alongside shrinking supplies as the season progresses. However, there is a 4.30% year-on-year (YoY) decrease due to heightened competition from other European producers and higher domestic production, which continue to exert downward pressure on prices.
US apple prices fell slightly by 1.56% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 1.26/kg in W10, with a 2.33% MoM decline due to stable storage supplies and steady harvest carryover from key producing states, ensuring sufficient market availability. Additionally, increased competition from imported apples, particularly from Chile and New Zealand, has exerted downward pressure on prices. However, strong domestic demand and lower fresh apple inventories compared to last year continue to provide some price support.
In W10, apple prices in Chile increased by 7.46% to USD 1.44/kg, showing a 10.77% MoM increase due to improved export demand, particularly from Latin American markets, where buyers are securing shipments ahead of peak consumption periods. Additionally, reduced harvesting activity has tightened supply, contributing to the upward price movement. However, ongoing logistical challenges and high freight costs continue to impact exporter margins, limiting further price gains.
South Africa's apple prices surged by 18.28% WoW to USD 1.10/kg in W10, representing a 5.77% MoM increase due to stronger export demand, particularly from Asia and the Middle East, where shipments have accelerated following the reopening of the Thai market. Additionally, reduced harvesting activity and tighter domestic supply contributed to the price rebound. However, there is a 24.14% YoY decrease due to persistent high production volumes and intensified competition from other Southern Hemisphere suppliers, which continue to exert downward pressure on long-term pricing trends.
In France, apple prices declined by 9.35% WoW to USD 1.26/kg in W10, with a 17.11% MoM drop and 16% YoY decrease. The price drop is due to sluggish export demand, particularly in Asian markets, where increased shipments from Southern Hemisphere suppliers have intensified competition. Additionally, the ongoing transition between storage seasons has led to a higher volume of older stock being released into the market, pushing prices downward. Local demand remains steady, but shifting consumer preferences toward more affordable apple varieties, and ample supply from local producers, have further contributed to the price decline.
Indian importers and wholesalers should expand sourcing beyond Iran, Turkey, and Poland to include upcoming Southern Hemisphere suppliers like Chile, South Africa, and New Zealand. Establishing direct partnerships and negotiating forward contracts can help mitigate price volatility and ensure consistent supply as CA stocks decline.
Polish apple exporters should expand into underdeveloped markets where competition is lower, such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia, to reduce reliance on price-sensitive European buyers. Establishing long-term supply agreements and promoting lesser-known varieties like Champion and Idared can help secure stable demand and improve margins.
Indian apple growers and traders should introduce competitive pricing models and emphasize freshness and local appeal of domestically grown apples to retain market share. Promoting premium varieties and leveraging geographical indications, such as Himachali and Kashmiri apples, can help differentiate local produce from US imports.
Sources: Tridge, Agravery, Agropolit, KashmirLife, PicknPay Investor, RNZ, UkrAgroConsult, Ziraat Times
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