Original content
Global demand for avocados has surged over the past two decades, with exports projected to reach 3.2 million tons by 2028/29, positioning avocados as the most traded fruit globally by 2030. Despite challenges anticipated in 2025, Mexico remains the leading producer, complemented by Peru and Colombia during its off-season. Consumption continues to expand in key markets such as the United States (US), the United Kingdom (UK), the European Union (EU), China, and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, interest is growing in emerging regions like Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. While trade may encounter obstacles, such as proposed US tariffs, experts remain optimistic about the sector's future.
The industry leaders emphasize the importance of market diversification and consumer education to sustain growth. As Mexico strengthens its leadership in the US avocado market and expands its reach into new global markets, it will play a crucial role in driving the continued growth and expansion of the global avocado industry.
Movement from Mexico's crossings through Texas is expected to decrease, with early trading showing moderate activity while late trading is expected to be highly active. Avocado prices have risen, with current spot market prices for 2-layer Hass cartons as follows: 32s at USD 78.25 to 80.25, 36s at USD 76.25 to 78.25, and 40s at USD 72.25 to 74.25. Meanwhile, 48s are at USD 55.25 to 58.25, 60s are at USD 46.25 to 49.25, 70s are at USD 26.25 to 28.25, and 84s are at USD 21.25 to 22.25. Organic varieties are priced higher, with 48s at USD 68.25 and 60s between USD 50.25 and 52.25. The prices reflect limited spot market sales, highlighting a quieter trading period early in the season.
Rwanda’s fruit export revenues surged by 82.5% in the 2023/24 fiscal year (FY), reaching USD 34.7 million, with avocados contributing a third of the total. Avocado exports saw a remarkable 74% increase, generating over USD 11 million compared to USD 6.3 million in the previous year. This impressive growth represents a 13-fold increase since 2019/20 and is attributed to Rwanda's strategic initiatives to boost horticultural exports. These efforts include securing new buyers in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and showcasing products at global exhibitions.
Other fruits, such as oranges, bananas, and mangoes, also played an important role in the country's export success, further underscoring the effectiveness of Rwanda's export strategies.
Peru's Hass avocado exports significantly declined in 2024, with projected shipments to reach 23.8 thousand containers (505.8 thousand tons), marking a 9.41% year-on-year (YoY) decrease compared to 2023's total of 26.3 thousand containers (558.4 thousand tons). By W48 2024, 23.8 thousand containers had already been shipped, leaving only 0.3% of the annual total for the final weeks of the year.
Europe remained the largest destination for Peru's avocado exports, accounting for nearly 62%. However, shipments to Europe dropped by 6.28%, from 15.8 thousand containers in 2023 to an estimated 14.8 thousand containers in 2024. This decline underscores the challenges faced by Peru's avocado industry, including shifting market demands and potential logistical obstacles.
In W1, avocado prices in Mexico increased by 1.42% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 2.85 per kilogram (kg). This marked a 19.25% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 43.94% YoY increase due to the continued tightening of supply as the harvest season progresses toward its end, reducing overall market availability. The price increase is also driven by strong global demand, particularly from key markets like the US and Europe, which has been further supported by the holiday season. Additionally, limited spot market sales and higher prices for certain avocado sizes, particularly organic varieties, reflect a quieter trading period early in the season, contributing to upward price pressures. The YoY rise is also influenced by supply constraints earlier in the previous season, leading to higher price levels for conventional and organic avocados.
In W1, Avocado prices in Peru fell by 2.61% WoW to USD 1.12/kg, with a 17.04% MoM decrease. The price drop is due to continued weaker demand in key markets, particularly Europe, following the post-holiday period. Additionally, intensifying competition from Mexico and other avocado exporters, especially in high-demand markets like the US, has placed downward pressure on prices. The MoM decline reflects seasonal factors and ongoing logistical challenges, which have affected the smooth flow of exports. Furthermore, Peru's struggles with securing premium pricing, partly due to concerns over cadmium levels and Mexico's strong market share in the US, continue to impact price levels.
In W1, Chilean avocado prices dropped slightly by 0.56% WoW to USD 3.52/kg, with a 1.40% MoM decrease and a 22.81% YoY drop. The price decrease is due to the continued high supply from the ongoing harvest season, which has maintained downward pressure on prices despite stable demand. The MoM decline is a result of typical post-holiday demand softening, while the YoY drop reflects the exceptionally high prices from the previous year, which were driven by supply challenges that are no longer present.
Rwandan exporters should expand their marketing efforts by targeting additional high-demand international markets and strengthening partnerships with existing buyers. By continuing to showcase products at global exhibitions and diversifying marketing strategies, exporters can further capitalize on the growing global demand for avocados and other fruits.
Peru's avocado exporters should focus on expanding their market reach by targeting emerging regions and strengthening relationships with existing buyers. Simultaneously, improving logistical operations and addressing potential barriers in current key markets, particularly Europe, can help stabilize export volumes and mitigate any future declines in demand. Exporters should also consider exploring new value-added avocado products to diversify offerings and increase competitiveness.
Sources: Tridge, Agraria, AJOT Insights, Cabilfrut, Freshplaza, Prohass, The New Times, USDA
Read more relevant content
Recommended suppliers for you
What to read next
