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Trade4go
Sep 20th, 2025
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Global beef markets strengthened in Aug-25 as the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Meat Price Index hit a record high of 127.95 points, up 0.6% month-on-month (MoM), driven by rising beef and lamb quotations amid tighter cattle supplies. Beef prices climbed 2% MoM to 143.17 points, supported by strong United States (US) demand, boosting Australian exports. Furthermore, steady Chinese imports sustain Brazilian values despite new tariffs. Global beef production continued to contract, with Europe, the US, and New Zealand posting declines, while Australia and China expanded output, leaving global volumes down 1% year-on-year (YoY) in H1-2025 and projected to fall 2% YoY by the end of 2025. US tariffs on Brazilian beef are reshaping trade flows, with record shipments earlier in the year expected to slow by between 10 thousand metric tons (mt) and 15 thousand mt monthly, creating operational challenges for Brazilian processors and potentially shifting more supply toward China, the Middle East, and Egypt. Meanwhile, European shortages are driving imports higher, compounded by animal disease outbreaks, underscoring the fragile balance between supply and demand in global beef markets.
Beef prices across Europe have surged to record highs in Sep-25, driven by strong domestic demand and a significant shortage of supply. Markets such as Italy, France, Poland, and Portugal are experiencing weekly price increases as industries compete for limited cattle. Operators report that meat is selling well, but the sharp rise in live cattle prices is putting pressure on traders and raising concerns about sustainability if consumer demand falters. The shortage extends to cows, where competition is fierce and prices continue to climb, leaving the sector worried about long-term affordability. At the same time, the European Union’s (EU) acceleration of the Mercosur trade agreement, set to open markets for Latin American beef, has heightened concerns among European farmers, who fear further pressure from imports despite promises of safeguards and crisis funds.
Argentina’s beef sector is poised for strong growth, with exports projected to reach between 0.90 million metric tons (mmt) and 1 mmt by 2026, supported by robust global demand and a more competitive exchange rate. In 2025, shipments are expected to total around 830 thousand mt, just 11% below last year’s record, a much smaller decline than initially expected. China remains the dominant buyer, accounting for most of the year’s export growth. However, Chinese importers push for lower prices and Brazil’s record shipments add challenges. Meanwhile, exports to Israel and Europe are expanding steadily, reinforcing Argentina’s diversified market presence. Despite shrinking cow herds limiting supply, Argentina’s competitiveness and reputation in international markets position it as a key global supplier, with opportunities to capture more demand in 2026 if market conditions remain favorable.
Bolivia has secured access to the Egyptian market after approval of its Veterinary Export Certificate, enabling major plants to export beef and poultry under the supervision of IS EG HALAL, the Egyptian authority for Halal certification. Built on years of audits and certification, this achievement boosts Bolivia’s export capacity, with 44 thousand mt of beef authorized and USD 92.7 million already shipped in 2024. However, unions and butchers warn that expanding exports could push local prices above USD 14.54 per kilogram (BOB 100/kg) and risk shortages, stressing the need to protect domestic supply. While producers cite a surplus of 100 thousand mt and prepare the first shipment to Egypt, authorities are working to balance export growth with food security and consumer protection.
According to the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (ABIEC), beef exports reached 299.45 thousand mt worth USD 1.60 billion in Aug-25. This reflects a 20.7% YoY increase in volume and a 49.8% YoY rise in value. China led the demand with 161 thousand mt (+48.1% YoY), making up 53.7% of total shipments. Other significant destinations included Russia with 14.2 thousand mt, Mexico with 13.3 thousand mt, Chile with 12 thousand mt, and the EU with 11.2 thousand mt. On the contrary, exports to the US fell to 9.3 thousand mt, down 51.1% YoY, reflecting the immediate impact of a 50% tariff hike in Aug-25. Despite this sharp monthly drop, cumulative year-to-date (YTD) shipments to the US remained strong at 209.1 thousand mt (+71.5% YoY), suggesting heavy pre-tariff purchases amid robust demand. According to Abiec, Aug-25’s results highlight both the global competitiveness of Brazilian beef and the coordinated efforts of the supply chain to expand market presence. Beyond established buyers, Brazil is also diversifying exports, with Vietnam receiving its first shipment of 27 thousand mt. Indonesia also authorized 17 Brazilian slaughterhouses for exports, while shipments to Mexico are steadily rising as Brazil pursues favorable tariff conditions to further strengthen trade flows.
Paraguay’s beef exports reached 244 thousand mt, worth USD 1.396 billion in Aug-25, up 9.1% YoY in volume and 29.3% YoY in value. Chile remained the top destination despite a decline in volume, while Taiwan and Israel drove growth with strong demand and higher prices. Israel paid the highest average price at USD 6,466/mt, followed by Brazil and Chile, contributing to an overall 18.5% YoY increase in export prices. Taiwan became the second-largest market, with shipments rising 26.9% YoY in volume and 58.8% YoY in value, while Israel’s imports surged over 40% YoY in volume and 75% YoY in value. At the same time, Paraguay expanded its market reach with the opening of the Philippines, signaling growing opportunities in Asia and reinforcing its position as a reliable global beef supplier. Domestically, stakeholders rejected claims that exports would drive up prices, noting that exports place surpluses abroad while imports, mainly from Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay, continue to balance supply and stabilize costs for local consumers.
Korean Hanwoo beef markets are facing mixed dynamics ahead of Chuseok, with forecasts pointing to tighter supply but softer prices later in the year. The Korea Rural Economic Institute (KREI) projects that beef slaughter during the holiday peak season will likely decline by 1.8% YoY to between 111,000 and 113,000 heads, lifting wholesale prices to between USD 14.52/kg and USD 15.24/kg (KRW 20,000 and KRW 21,000/kg), slightly higher than last year. However, the Rural Development Administration (RDA) anticipates that despite fewer animals, wholesale prices could ease in Q4-2025 to between USD 13.43/kg and USD 14.15/kg (KRW 18,500/kg and KRW 19,500/kg), lower than the average year, raising concerns over conflicting outlooks. Longer-term, the Hanwoo herd is expected to continue shrinking, dropping from 929,000 heads this year to 825,000 heads by 2028, even as calf prices rise. While demand is expected to remain strong during Chuseok, uncertainties in consumer sentiment and herd supply are likely to shape the Korean beef market in the coming months. Meanwhile, regional governments and farmer groups are moving to boost demand through promotions and donations. For instance, Jangsu-gun is offering a 25% discount on Korean beef and other specialties at its online mall. In addition, the National Hanwoo Association donated beef soup to low-income households to encourage consumption.
Vermont Wagyu has become the first US farm to ship certified authentic Wagyu beef, marking the milestone with the rollout of its new Certified Authentic Wagyu Beef label across all graded Full Blood Wagyu products from September 8. Overseen by the American Wagyu Association (AWA) and verified by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the certification assures consumers that the beef remains 100% purebred Wagyu while setting a higher benchmark for quality. Unlike Japan’s A5 marbling system, the US traditionally relies on USDA grades such as Prime, Choice, and Select. However, the AWA has long argued for a more refined system, noting that American Wagyu often surpasses Prime standards. With the USDA’s recent introduction of a higher Prime grade in 2024, Vermont Wagyu emphasized that its new Authentic Wagyu label guarantees beef of exceptional quality, surpassing even top conventional grades.
Uruguay’s beef sector is experiencing strong momentum, with Aug-25 marking a record monthly export price of USD 5,284/mt. This was supported by a 22% annual increase in both volume and value, with China driving growth (+44% in volume) alongside solid gains in the US (+16%). The annual average is now close to USD 5,000/mt, well above 2024 levels. Market dynamics favor Uruguay as global beef shortages in the US, Europe, and China open opportunities for South American suppliers, with Uruguay positioned as a key winner due to its strong traceability and sustainability standards. Minerva Foods, expanding its presence in Uruguay with several acquired plants, highlighted that shrinking US herd sizes and Brazil’s reduced access to the US market could allow Uruguay to expand quotas and strengthen its role as a reliable exporter.
In W37, Brazil’s wholesale beef price rose 1.52% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 4.68/kg, aligning with a 1.52% MoM increase and an 8.58% YoY gain. The weekly rise reflects firm market demand. However, Safras & Mercado note that the scope for further upward adjustments remains limited, as the second half of the month typically sees weaker demand for price revisions. Meanwhile, chicken continues to hold a stronger competitive edge. On the physical market, beef prices eased slightly, likely influenced by larger slaughterhouses operating with comfortable slaughter schedules supported by term contracts and their own confinement facilities, which ensured stable supply and softened short-term price pressure.
In W37, Australia’s beef prices rose 1.30% WoW to USD 3.12/kg, marking a 4.70% MoM increase and a 31.65% YoY gain. According to Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA), the cattle market experienced a mixed week, as national yardings fell 12% WoW to 65.16 thousand heads following the previous week’s strong supply. While Queensland yardings rose 7% WoW to 27.85 thousand heads, this was outweighed by a 24% WoW decline in New South Wales (NSW), where rain and seasonal confidence curtailed supply. Particularly, demand in NSW remained firm, pushing the National Processor Cow Indicator to a new record high above last month’s peak, even as yardings continued to tighten in key producing regions.
In W37, US lean beef (92% to 94%) averaged USD 9.82/kg, rising 0.41% WoW, 2.61% MoM, and 13.79% YoY. The bullish trend is underpinned by constrained cattle inventories and firm domestic demand. As of July 1, the US cattle herd totaled 94.2 million heads, including 28.7 million beef cattle, a modest recovery but still slightly below 2023’s level, signaling ongoing supply tightness. Feedlot inventories aligned with this trend as Aug-25 marked the eighth straight monthly decline, with 10.92 million heads, the lowest since Oct-17. Over the past six months, placements fell by more than 6% YoY, suggesting further declines ahead. On the other hand, marketings dropped over 5% YoY, contributing to lower fed cattle slaughter and reduced beef output. Market conditions are further shaped by external shocks, including a 50% tariff on Brazilian beef that has curbed imports, and border disruptions with Mexico over New World screwworm concerns that have disrupted supply flows.
In W37, Argentina’s average steer beef price fell 4.80% WoW and 4.39% MoM to USD 2.18/kg, suggesting softer demand in the short term. Despite this decline, prices remained 12.37% higher YoY, reflecting sustained structural demand growth. Domestic consumption is strengthening, with the Chamber of Meat and Meat Products Industry and Commerce of the Argentine Republic (CICCRA) reporting that per capita beef consumption reached 49.8 kg in Aug-25, a 4.2% YoY increase, supported by a rebound in household demand after the 2024 downturn. Apparent beef consumption for the period from Jan25 to Aug-25 rose 7.7% YoY to 1.56 mmt, underpinned by improved purchasing power. This recovery aligns with Argentina’s ongoing disinflationary process, as the Consumer Price Index for Greater Buenos Aires. (CPI-GBA) increased by 1.9% in Aug-25, matching Jul-25’s variation, while the YoY rise slowed to 34.6%, the lowest since Dec-20. Within this trend, meat and meat products registered the mildest monthly price gains at just 0.6% MoM, with a 1.6% MoM drop in chicken prices playing a key role, while beef cuts rose only 1.0% MoM on average.
With global beef prices hitting record highs due to supply contraction and shifting trade flows, stakeholders should prioritize diversifying sourcing strategies, investing in herd recovery programs, and expanding cold-chain infrastructure to manage volatility. Importing countries can mitigate risks by securing long-term supply agreements with Southern Hemisphere exporters, while exporters should explore value-added processing and alternative markets to cushion against tariff shocks and disease-driven disruptions.
European policymakers should balance high domestic prices with consumer affordability by accelerating contingency measures, including targeted subsidies, temporary import tariff adjustments, and controlled releases from emergency reserves. At the same time, transparent communication about the EU-Mercosur deal and the provision of safeguard mechanisms will be critical to reassure farmers, while promoting productivity improvements and herd health programs can help stabilize long-term supply.
Bolivia should carefully manage its newly secured access to the Egyptian market by implementing an export quota system that protects local supply and prevents excessive domestic price hikes. Expanding slaughterhouse capacity and improving certification processes can support sustainable export growth, while simultaneous domestic market interventions, such as price monitoring and subsidies for low-income households, will ensure food security.
To maintain steady demand for Hanwoo beef amid declining herds, South Korea should expand promotional campaigns, discounts, and public donations, particularly during peak seasons such as Chuseok. Long-term measures include investing in genetic improvement programs, herd expansion incentives, and consumer education campaigns emphasizing Hanwoo’s premium value. Strategic imports may also be considered to stabilize prices without undermining domestic farmers.
Sources: Tridge, Aflnews, Agri, Agrinet, Agromeat, Agropopular, UkrAgroConsult, Yna
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