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Global olive oil consumption is expected to rise by 10% year-on-year (YoY) in the 2024/25 season, with Spain, the largest consumer in the European Union (EU), leading the trend with a projected 14% YoY increase. Demand is also surging in key markets, including China (96%), Japan (29%), Brazil (20%), Australia (16%), and the United States (8%), driven by growing awareness of its health benefits, expanding use in the food industry, and its sustainability. Extra virgin olive oil is particularly valued for its cardiovascular and anti-inflammatory properties, while olive groves contribute to capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate change mitigation, reinforcing the industry's environmental and economic significance.
Olive oil consumption in Australia has declined in recent years due to rising prices, with household penetration dropping to 60.8% in 2024 from 67% in 2021.Although local production meets about a third of domestic demand, Australia remains heavily dependent on imports. Spain was the primary supplier, providing 21.6 thousand tons in 2024, which accounted for 66% of total imports. However, total imports have fallen sharply from over 38 thousand tons in 2020 to below 25 thousand tons in 2023. In response, the ‘Get Drizzling’ campaign has been launched to boost consumption by showcasing the culinary benefits of extra virgin olive oil and utilizing influencer marketing to engage consumers.
Despite high prices, Italy’s extra virgin olive oil market remains stable, supported by strong demand, quality production, and limited stocks. However, large retailers are lowering prices on lower-quality imported oils to attract consumers, raising concerns about market dynamics and competition. While premium olive oil continues to command strong interest, the growing presence of cheaper alternatives could impact pricing strategies and consumer perceptions in the long run.
Spain's strong olive oil season has led to a sharp price decline, with the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food (MAPA) reporting a 52% YoY drop in Mar-25 and a 19.6% decrease compared to the average of the last two seasons. Consumer associations Organización de Consumidores y Usuarios (OCU) and Consumidores en Acción (FACUA) noted further price reductions in Feb-25, with FACUA recording a 10.4% decline and OCU estimating an 11% drop for mild olive oil and 8% for extra virgin olive oil. As a result, supermarket prices for a liter of extra virgin olive oil now range between USD 6.37 and 6.81 (EUR 5.84 and EUR 6.25) at major retailers, reflecting the ongoing downward trend.
US Demand for Spanish Extra Virgin Olive Oil Faces Tariffs
Despite concerns over US-imposed tariffs on European olive oil, Spanish extra virgin olive oil remains highly sought after by American consumers. While the full impact of these tariffs on Spain’s olive oil industry is still uncertain, they could affect the broader European market, influencing export competitiveness and trade dynamics.
Tunisia is strengthening its olive oil industry, with exports reaching 340 thousand tons in the latest season. Acknowledging olive oil’s rising significance in the agri-food sector, Tunisia’s government has initiated a strategic study to optimize production, processing, and exports. The key initiatives include restructuring the National Oil Office (ONH) for greater efficiency and introducing subsidies covering 50% of maritime transport costs (excluding France, Italy, and Spain) and 70% of air freight costs for canned olive oil. Additionally, a strategic promotional campaign aims to expand Tunisia’s global market presence through targeted strategies across 25 international destinations, trade events, and foreign delegations.
In W11, Spain's olive oil prices remained steady at USD 4.32 per kilogram (kg), marking a 2.04% month-on-month (MoM) decrease and a significant 54.38% year-on-year decline. This sharp annual drop is primarily due to an exceptionally strong olive harvest in the 2024-2025 season, which led to increased supply and subsequent price reductions. Additionally, the US government's imposition of a 25% tariff on European olive oil imports has disrupted traditional export markets, further contributing to the downward.
Italy's olive oil prices dropped by 13.96% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 9.92/kg in W11, with a 6.50% YoY decline due to improved market liquidity as traders released stored stocks to capitalize on previous high prices, easing supply constraints. Additionally, reduced buying activity from key European importers, particularly Spain and France, contributed to the downward pressure. However, MoM prices increased by 3.44% due to ongoing concerns over the country's lower production forecast for the 2024/25 season, which continues to support long-term price stability despite short-term fluctuations.
Olive oil prices in Greece increased by 3.39% WoW to USD 4.88/kg in W11, showing an 11.16% MoM increase due to steady export demand from key markets such as Italy and Spain, and rising production costs, particularly in labor and processing. Additionally, lower carryover stocks from the previous season have contributed to price stability. However, there is a significant drop in prices of 48.31% YoY due to a strong recovery in domestic production following last year’s drought, which severely constrained supply and led to exceptionally high prices in the previous season.
In W11, olive oil prices in Tunisia surged by 7.28% WoW to USD 4.42/kg, representing a 21.39% MoM increase due to strong export demand, particularly from the EU, US, Canada, and Gulf countries, where shipments have risen significantly. The government’s recent initiatives, including restructuring ONH and offering transport subsidies, have enhanced the sector's efficiency and global competitiveness, further driving demand. Additionally, Tunisia's strategic promotional campaigns across 25 international markets, participation in trade events, and foreign delegations have strengthened its global market presence, supporting higher prices.
Spanish olive oil producers should diversify their export markets and strengthen branding to maintain profitability amid falling prices. Spanish producers should focus on high-demand regions like North America and Asia, emphasize premium extra virgin olive oil, and utilize geographical indications to maintain product value. Collaborating with retailers for exclusive product lines and exploring bulk sales to food service sectors can stabilize sales.
Australian olive oil importers and retailers should expand promotional efforts by offering in-store tastings, recipe collaborations with local chefs, and discounts on bulk purchases. Highlighting the health benefits and versatility of extra virgin olive oil through targeted social media campaigns and partnerships with fitness influencers can further drive consumer interest and boost sales.
Sources: Tridge, Diariodesevilla, Diariojaen, Interempresas, Lasprovincias, Olivonews
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