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Heavy rains and flooding in the Cochabamba tropics of Bolivia have severely impacted banana plantations, with approximately 5 thousand hectares (ha) affected. The floods have left fields waterlogged and covered in mud, making it impossible to package bananas for export. Additionally, the rising waters have swept away transport cables used to move banana bunches, complicating local and international distribution. More than 2.5 thousand producing families have been affected, as they are unable to harvest or transport bananas due to waterlogged fields and damaged infrastructure. The flooding has made it impossible to access plantations, while the loss of transport cables has further disrupted the movement of banana bunches, halting both local sales and exports.
India
Pune District Plans Major Banana Cultivation Expansion with AI and Global Market Targets
To boost annual production from 67.6 thousand to 200 thousand metric tons (mt) within five years, India's Pune district plans to expand banana cultivation from 611 ha to 3 thousand ha. The initiative will focus on Indapur, Baramati, and Daund, integrating artificial intelligence to enhance yields from 42 to 65 mt/ha. Advanced warehouses in the Sunrise Village will support export-quality production, targeting key markets like Iran, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) while exploring opportunities in the United States (US), Russia, Japan, and Europe. Meanwhile, Solapur District, a major exporter, benefits from Ujani dam water, strengthening production in Karmala and Madha. To ensure sustainable growth in Maharashtra, India's second-largest banana-producing state, farmers emphasize the need for assured pricing, expert guidance, and financial support.
Ecuador's 2025 plantain season is experiencing unusually high prices and reduced supply due to excessive rainfall and a shift by some producers to other crops after last year’s low prices. Current prices range from USD 17 to 19 per box, well above the typical USD 12 to 13 per box, leading to market resistance and lower consumption. Despite these challenges, Ecuadorian banana exports continue to grow, particularly in Europe, with rising demand in Spain, Italy, and the Netherlands. To stabilize supply and maintain quality, investments are being made in logistics centers, cold storage, and improved fertilization programs. However, the sector still faces high freight costs, limited technological advancements, and the need for more efficient logistics to stay competitive in global markets.
Ecuador's banana industry saw a 0.72% decline by Feb-25, primarily due to Algeria's export restrictions, which led to a sharp drop of 2.39 million boxes (87.51%). The trade disruption followed Ecuador’s withdrawal of recognition for the Polisario movement, a Sahrawi nationalist group seeking independence for Western Sahara, which Algeria supports. In response, Algeria imposed limitations on Ecuadorian fruit imports. While increased shipments to the US by 28.30% and Russia by 18.49% helped offset losses, declines in Algeria, Japan by 14.59%, and South Korea by 7.54% contributed to the overall downturn. Adverse climate conditions, including heavy rainfall and lower temperatures, further impacted production. Despite these challenges, some companies managed to expand exports, while others struggled, highlighting the industry's ongoing volatility.
The Philippines remains Japan’s top banana supplier, but its market share is declining due to high tariffs under the Japan-Philippines Economic Partnership Agreement (JPEPA). While Japan levies an 18% tariff on Philippine bananas from April to September and 8% from October to March, competitors like Cambodia, Laos, Mexico, and Vietnam enjoy zero or preferential tariffs. The seasonal tariff structure is designed to protect Japan’s domestic fruit industry, with higher rates during the months when local fruits are in peak production. With Japan importing over 1 million metric tons (mmt) of bananas annually, Philippine officials and industry representatives recently met with Japanese importers in Tokyo to push for tariff reductions. Lower tariffs could attract investment, sustain the banana industry in Mindanao, and support over 700 thousand Filipino workers, reinforcing the sector’s role as a key export generating over USD 1 billion in annual sales.
In Feb-25, banana retail prices in the US declined by 1.3% year-on-year (YoY), even as shipment volumes increased during the first two months of 2025. While key suppliers like Guatemala, Costa Rica, and Ecuador saw slightly lower exports through late February, total banana shipments remained higher than in the same period last year. As one of the most influential commodities in the fresh fruit Consumer Price Index (CPI), alongside apples, bananas contributed to the CPI’s 2% annual increase. The price drop reflects market adjustments driven by supply fluctuations and broader trends in the fruit industry.
Dole Plc has warned that the US proposal to impose million-dollar fees on Chinese-built cargo ships docking at US ports could severely impact the banana trade. Bananas, which are shipped on small, refrigerated vessels that frequently stop at multiple US ports, are especially vulnerable due to their low margins and the lack of domestic production. With limited shipping alternatives, the added costs could push up grocery prices. While larger container lines might absorb some expenses, smaller vessels crucial for banana imports could face significant financial strain, potentially disrupting supply chains and driving up consumer prices nationwide.
Ecuador's banana prices dropped by 3.33% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.29 per kilogram (kg) in W13. This represents a 12.12% YoY decline due to persistent oversupply in the domestic market, driven by increased production despite logistical and climate challenges. Heavy rainfall has disrupted harvesting and transportation, leading to quality concerns and limiting export potential. Additionally, Algeria's trade restrictions on Ecuadorian bananas have significantly reduced shipments, creating a surplus that has further pressured prices downward. However, month-on-month (MoM) prices increased by 11.54% due to strong demand from key markets such as the US, Spain, and Russia, where buyers have ramped up purchases to secure supply amid global shipping uncertainties. Investments in cold storage and logistics centers have also helped stabilize exports, supporting a partial price recovery despite broader market challenges.
In W13, banana prices in the Philippines increased modestly by 0.78% WoW and YoY to USD 1.29/kg, showing a 1.57% MoM increase. The slight price increase is due to ongoing discussions between Philippine officials and Japanese importers regarding tariff reductions under the JPEPA, which has renewed optimism among exporters. Additionally, steady demand from Japan, despite high tariffs, has supported prices, as Philippine bananas remain a staple in the market. However, the market share of Philippine bananas in Japan continues to face pressure from low-tariff competitors such as Cambodia, Vietnam, and Mexico. While production remains stable, growers are concerned about the long-term impact of tariffs on export volumes. Investments in improving production efficiency and logistics are underway to maintain competitiveness in the Japanese market, contributing to the slight price increase.
Banana prices in Colombia increased by 2.17% WoW to USD 0.47/kg in W13 due to a slight tightening of supply caused by recent logistical disruptions at key export hubs, leading to delayed shipments. Increased demand from European markets, particularly Germany and the Netherlands, contributed to the price rise as Colombian exporters secured contracts to fulfill growing orders. However, MoM and YoY prices dropped by 2.08% and 6.00%, respectively, due to ongoing competition from other major banana-exporting countries, particularly Ecuador and Costa Rica, which continue to offer competitive pricing in global markets. Additionally, stable weather conditions have ensured a consistent supply, preventing any significant upward price movements. The industry remains focused on improving efficiency and securing stable export agreements to maintain price stability in the coming weeks.
In Guatemala, banana prices remained stable at USD 0.22/kg since W10 due to a well-balanced supply and demand dynamic, supported by favorable growing conditions and steady export shipments to key markets like the US and Europe. The consistent production levels have prevented significant price fluctuations, while stable logistics operations have ensured smooth trade flow. YoY prices still increased by 15.79% due to the lingering effects of production shortfalls earlier in 2025, which led to a tighter supply and higher pricing trends. Additionally, rising input costs, including fertilizers, transportation, and labor expenses, have kept price levels elevated compared to the previous year. With demand remaining strong, particularly in the US, industry players expect prices to remain firm in the short term.
Banana suppliers and distributors should refine supply planning by aligning shipments with demand trends to prevent price drops and market oversupply. Implementing flexible procurement strategies, adjusting shipment schedules, and diversifying sourcing regions will help balance supply, maintain profitability, and support stable pricing in key retail markets.
Banana producers should focus on improving logistics efficiency by investing in cold storage and expanding transport options to reduce freight costs and maintain a consistent supply. Additionally, diversifying production strategies, such as rotating crops or offering premium varieties, will help stabilize the banana supply, reduce market volatility, and keep quality consistent.
Sources: Tridge, Cimexport, Department of Agriculture Philipines, Eju Expreso, PNA, Times of India, Transport Popics, USDA
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