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Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is estimated at 170.9 million metric tons (mmt), up 16.5 mmt from the previous season, according to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove). While export and domestic consumption projections for soybeans remain steady at 106 mmt and 57.5 mmt, soybean oil exports were revised upward by 27% to 1.4 mmt. This reflects the government's decision to maintain the biodiesel blend at B14, delaying a planned rise to B15. As a result, domestic soybean oil consumption was lowered by 3.8% to 10.1 mmt, as more supply is directed toward external markets.
Brazil’s soybean exports reached 22.8 mmt as of W13, with 17.7 mmt shipped to China—both record figures. Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans continues to grow, with shipments exceeding previous seasonal levels by 7 mmt. Analysts expect first-quarter exports to China to surpass last year’s record of 18 mmt, further strengthening Brazil’s dominance in the market. China accounted for 79% of Brazil’s soybean exports in early 2024, up from 75% last year. With Brazil’s 2025 soybean exports projected at 110 mmt and a record 170 mmt harvest expected, its competitive edge over United States (US) soybeans is set to expand.
The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) forecasts soybean exports to grow in Mar-25, reaching 15.56 mmt – a slight increase from its previous estimate, with a potential for 16 mmt due to vessel line-ups. ANEC also projects that Brazil will export over 100 mmt of soybeans in 2025, driven by a record 170 mmt harvest and strong demand from China amid a trade war with the US. Additionally, soybean meal exports are estimated at 2.60 mmt, setting a new monthly record if achieved.
China's soybean demand is projected to rise in the marketing year (MY) 2025/26, with total domestic consumption increasing to 124.4 mmt, up from 122 mmt in 2024/25. While soybean production is forecast to reach 101 mmt, a 2% increase from the previous year, the country will still rely on imports, expected to grow by 2% to 106 mmt. The rise in demand is attributed to a recovery in feed demand, despite shifting consumer preferences and slower economic growth. Additionally, higher edible oil prices, driven by reduced exports of other oils, have led to greater reliance on soybean oil in the Chinese market.
In 2025, Ukraine is expected to see a 10 to 13% decrease in soybean planting areas, primarily due to lower crop prices this season and more attractive pricing for corn and sunflower. Soybean production is projected to fall to 5.7 to 5.8 mmt, still among the highest levels for the industry. Despite less favorable prices this season, soybean demand is rising both domestically and internationally. Increased oilseed processing capacity in Ukraine supports soybeans as a viable alternative, helping to maintain higher planting areas in the long term. The central, western, and northern regions are expected to remain the primary production areas. However, the south and central regions may experience reduced yields due to unfavorable climatic conditions.
A proposed US port fee on Chinese-built vessels could raise soybean export costs by an estimated USD 0.39 per bushel, reducing US competitiveness against South American producers. The American Soybean Association (ASA) warns that the additional costs, intended to support domestic shipbuilding, would increase freight rates and ultimately lower farmgate prices. With the farm economy already struggling, industry leaders argue that the policy could further weaken US soybeans’ position in global markets. Farmers are urged to engage with policymakers to mitigate potential impacts.
In W13, Brazil's soybean prices remained stable at USD 0.37 per kilogram (kg) with no weekly and monthly changes but experienced a 7.50% year-on-year (YoY) decrease. Despite the lower YoY prices, export prospects are robust, with ANEC forecasting Mar-25 soybean exports at 15.56 million tons, a slight increase from previous estimates, with the potential to reach 16 mmt due to vessel line-ups. Looking ahead to 2025, ANEC expects Brazil to surpass 100 mmt in total soybean exports, supported by a record 170 million ton harvest and ongoing strong demand from China, which remains a key buyer amid the US-China trade tensions. These factors suggest that while domestic prices are relatively low, Brazil's export potential remains strong, driven by favorable production and strong international demand, especially from China.
In W13, US soybean prices increased at USD 0.42/kg, reflecting a 2.44% month-on-month (MoM) increase and a 19.23% YoY decrease. The proposed US port fee on Chinese-built vessels, aimed at supporting domestic shipbuilding, could further strain US competitiveness in the global soybean market. ASA has estimated that this fee could increase soybean export costs by approximately USD 0.39/bushel, which would elevate freight rates and ultimately lower farmgate prices. Given the already challenging conditions within the US farm economy, this additional cost burden could weaken the position of US soybeans, particularly against lower-cost South American producers.
In W13, Argentina's soybean prices increased to USD 0.41/kg, marking a 2.5% MoM rise but a 4.65% YoY decline. Sales of the 2024/25 harvest are at their slowest in a decade, with only 17 to 18% sold by mid-Mar-25, down 25% from last year. This is due to economic uncertainty, with farmers delaying sales in hopes of a stronger Argentinian peso. The slow sales are impacting Argentina’s foreign exchange earnings, as soybean exports are key to stabilizing the economy. The government faces pressure to address farmer concerns and stimulate sales, but uncertainty remains over whether the peso will devalue enough to encourage a surge in exports.
Uruguay’s soybean prices remained stable at USD 0.41/kg in W13, with expectations of a strong harvest due to favorable weather. However, lower international prices continue to put pressure on margins, prompting producers to adjust their hedging strategies. The reference price of USD 364/mt remains below 2023 levels but is partially supported by higher premiums due to shifts in international purchasing patterns.
Good yields—potentially exceeding the 2,600 kg per hectare (ha) break-even threshold—could help offset weaker prices, mitigating financial strain on producers. However, harvesting and post-harvest costs remain a concern, and tight margins may influence lease renegotiations. Future price movements will depend on international demand trends, global production levels, and any further weather-related developments in Uruguay. If prices remain subdued, farmers may increasingly rely on risk management tools to secure profitability.
Given the expected record harvest of 170.9 mmt and strong demand from China, stakeholders should prioritize enhancing export logistics, including improving vessel line-ups and securing long-term shipping contracts. This will help Brazil maintain its competitive edge over US producers and meet the projected export target of 110 mmt in 2025.
With the potential US port fee on Chinese-built vessels threatening to increase export costs, US soybean producers should engage with policymakers to mitigate the impact. Additionally, they should explore alternative markets, such as Europe or emerging Asian economies, to reduce dependency on the Chinese market and maintain export volumes.
Given Argentina's slow soybean sales due to economic uncertainty, the Argentine government and industry stakeholders should explore measures to stimulate exports, such as providing financial incentives or stabilizing the peso. This would help maintain Argentina’s competitiveness in the global market and support its foreign exchange earnings.
Sources: Tridge, Agromeat, UkrAgroConsult Super Agronom, Invezz
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