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Ukrainian farmers successfully exported approximately 1.8 to 1.9 million metric tons (mmt) of corn until Mar-25. However, global market dynamics are shifting as Ukrainian corn becomes increasingly expensive. Moreover, the new Argentine grain will arrive in Apr-25, which could pressure prices. In contrast, Brazil, which accounts for nearly 45% of global corn production, experienced decreasing soil moisture, potentially leading to a price increase in May. Meanwhile, Türkiye has reduced its corn import duty and opened a quota, supporting Ukrainian corn prices. Despite a potential short-term price dip, the medium-term outlook remains positive, especially if adverse conditions in Brazil materialize.
Mexico’s lower house has passed a constitutional ban on genetically modified (GM) corn planting, reinforcing existing restrictions to safeguard native corn varieties and uphold traditional farming practices. The reform, which took effect immediately following its approval on March 18, 2025, also addresses longstanding concerns over biosafety and the preservation of the country’s biocultural heritage. This legislative move comes in the context of a December 2024 trade dispute ruling, which found that Mexico’s limitations on GM corn imports lacked sufficient scientific evidence to justify the trade restrictions under international rules. Nevertheless, Mexico’s lawmakers have emphasized that the constitutional amendment is rooted in environmental and cultural considerations, aligning with the principles championed by the former President and prior executive actions.
Romanian farmers are gearing up for corn planting, with favorable weather conditions expected. According to the National Meteorological Administration (ANM), temperatures will gradually rise, reaching 25°C in W14, creating ideal conditions for planting. Moreover, more rain is forecasted in the coming weeks, improving conditions for spring crop germination, especially in the southern and southwestern counties where the soil requires more moisture. Following the positive rain forecast, some farmers are optimistic about planting more corn, driven by strong domestic demand and low stocks of quality corn in Romania. As a result, the final planted area for corn may exceed the initial forecasts from the Ministry of Agriculture, depending on the rainfall in Mar-25 and Apr-25.
Recent changes in United States (US) tariff policy have given Ukraine a renewed opportunity to re-enter the South Korean corn market, potentially supplying 1.5 to 2 mmt of grain. This is about 15 to 20% of South Korea’s total corn imports. South Korea imports roughly 10 mmt of corn annually, favoring the cheapest suppliers through tenders. However, with the introduction of tariffs making US corn more expensive, Ukraine, a competitive supplier from 2019 to 2020, could regain a significant market share in the 2025/26 season. Moreover, South Korea may boost imports of Ukrainian feed wheat and barley if tariffs on US grains persist, further expanding Ukraine’s role in the region’s feed grain supply chain.
Seasonality shapes Ukraine’s export opportunities and corn market distribution throughout the 2024/25 marketing year (MY). From Oct-25 to Dec-25, Ukraine holds a strategic window to boost exports to Europe and Asia, capitalizing on the seasonal decline in US and Brazilian shipments. Since Brazil will conclude most of its sales to Asia by Oct-25, Ukraine can supply the region with limited competition, primarily facing leftover volumes from Argentina. In early 2026 (January to March), Ukraine may secure higher prices as global demand typically leans on US stockpiles and Southern Hemisphere supplies during this period. However, from Apr-26 to Jun-26, Ukraine will encounter stronger competition from Argentine exports, making it essential to maximize shipments beforehand. From Jun-26 to Aug-26, Brazil will dominate markets like Mexico, China, South Korea, and the European Union (EU), while Ukraine will likely close the 2025/26 MY with minimal ending stocks.
In W13, US wholesale maize prices increased 5.56% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 0.19 per kilogram (kg), driven by a combination of factors. Weather-related challenges, including persistent wet conditions and colder temperatures in key maize-growing regions, delayed the planting season and reduced crop yields. Moreover, there was increased demand for maize, particularly from domestic processors and the biofuels industry. Export dynamics also played a role, with global demand and potential tariff-related factors, particularly from key markets like China, possibly reducing available supply for international trade.
In W13, Brazil's wholesale maize prices remained stable WoW. However, the price increased by 4% month-on-month (MoM) and 23.81% year-on-year (YoY) to USD 0.26/kg, driven by robust export demand, particularly from China, which accounted for over 40% of Brazil’s total maize shipments in Feb-25. Exports reached 1.92 mmt during that period, marking a 26% YoY increase. Logistical challenges, including port congestion at Santos and Paranaguá due to heavy rainfall, hindered transportation in the Midwest and South, causing shipment delays. Moreover, concerns are rising over dry conditions in key producing states like Mato Grosso and Paraná, where below-average rainfall threatened the second-crop (Safrinha) yields that account for approximately 75% of Brazil's total maize production.
In W13, Argentine maize prices increased 5.26% WoW and 17.65% YoY to USD 0.20/kg. This rise was driven by global supply constraints due to climate-related disruptions in major maize-producing regions, including the US, Ukraine, and Brazil, creating a market imbalance. As a result, Argentina, a major maize exporter, saw a surge in demand, particularly from Europe, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa. The weaker Argentine peso also made exports more competitive internationally, further boosting demand. Additionally, regional buyers in Latin America and the Middle East, who rely on Argentina as a key supplier, contributed to the increase in demand, which, combined with the global supply shortfall, drove the price up.
In W13, Ukrainian wholesale maize prices rose 4.35% MoM and 71.35% YoY, reaching USD 0.24/kg. This increase was due to severe supply constraints from reduced domestic production in 2025. Prolonged drought conditions in key maize-growing regions and unseasonably cold temperatures during spring severely hampered yields, leading to an estimated production decline of 24 mmt. Furthermore, there are significant disruptions to infrastructure, including damage to key transport routes and logistical bottlenecks at vital export corridors, such as the Black Sea, which restricted the movement of maize to international markets. Despite these factors pushing prices higher, analysts caution that the current elevated prices could lead to decreased demand, particularly in the EU. Furthermore, the depletion of the Ukrainian low-duty export quota to Türkiye may also contribute to potential price declines in the future.
Improve the capacity and efficiency of Ukraine’s logistics networks, particularly for Black Sea shipments, to handle growing export volumes. This includes enhancing port facilities, transportation networks, and storage infrastructure. Collaborating with international partners to secure trade agreements or financing for infrastructure improvements can help mitigate disruptions and delays. Efficient logistics will reduce export bottlenecks, ensuring that Ukraine can meet demand during the peak export season (Oct-Dec) and enhance competitiveness in the global market, particularly in Europe and Asia.
To address concerns about the GM corn ban, invest in research and development for sustainable farming practices that focus on increasing the yields of traditional corn varieties. This could include soil health management, pest control techniques, water-saving technologies, and offering financial incentives to farmers adopting these practices. Mexico can maintain its competitiveness in the global market while protecting its biocultural heritage. Improved yields and sustainability will support domestic consumption and exports without relying on GM crops.
Encourage partnerships between Romanian farmers and agro-tech companies to adopt precision agriculture technologies, including drone-assisted monitoring, automated irrigation systems, and data-driven crop management tools. Providing subsidies or financing for small to medium-sized farms to implement these technologies will be key. Precision agriculture can help Romanian farmers optimize their inputs, improve yields, and reduce environmental impacts, ensuring they can meet the growing demand for corn domestically and internationally.
Sources: Tridge, Graintrade, UkrAgroConsult
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