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Australia's avocado industry has secured a USD 200 thousand grant through the ASEAN-Australia Centre's 2024/25 Grants Program. The grant will help expand exports in Southeast Asia, a key market that accounts for 43% of total exports. In the 2023/24 financial year (FY), Australia produced 150.9 thousand tons of avocados, with 21.9 thousand tons exported, a seven-fold increase in export volume over the past three years. Key destinations include Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. Rising demand in Southeast Asia, fueled by urbanization and increasing health awareness, has created significant expansion opportunities. The grant will fund training for supply chain stakeholders, introduce Southeast Asian chefs to Australian avocado quality, and strengthen trade relationships through culinary engagement, reinforcing Australia’s position as a premium avocado supplier.
Colombia has expanded its avocado industry, with production concentrated in regions such as Quindío, Antioquia, Tolima, Cauca, and northern Santander. While planting has slowed, the industry made significant advancements in agronomic research and agro-industrial development, particularly in avocado oil and guacamole production. Hass, the primary export variety, makes up 70% of shipments, with Europe being its largest market, followed by the United States (US), Canada, and Asia. In 2024, exports to the US more than doubled compared to the previous year, solidifying Colombia’s position as an emerging supplier. To strengthen their market presence amid potential shifts in global trade, Colombian producers are focused on improving quality, ensuring regulatory compliance, and increasing investment to sustain long-term growth.
Despite ideal climatic conditions and strong local demand, Ethiopia's avocado exports remain limited, with only 5 thousand tons shipped in 2023 out of a total production of over 160 thousand tons. The country faces challenges due to underdeveloped infrastructure, particularly in cold storage and transport facilities, which hampers its export potential. While exports mainly serve Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the ongoing Red Sea crisis has disrupted export activities, rendering them virtually non-existent for the current season. However, local demand remains strong, and some producers, such as FloraVeg, are optimistic about future European exports, contingent on improved infrastructure and a resolution to the crisis.
Seeing steady growth in recent years, India's avocado market is now facing a crisis due to a sharp rise in imports. In the first two weeks of Mar-25 alone, India imported nearly 1.15 thousand tons of avocados, three to four times the quantity imported during the same period last year. This surge has caused a significant price crash, with boxes now selling for as low as USD 4 to 5, a significant drop from the usual prices. The oversupply is attributed to inexperienced traders and an influx of new importers who failed to assess market demand properly, causing the market to exceed its consumption capacity. As a result, sales have slowed, and traders face potential losses. With the situation expected to worsen, industry leaders call for better market education and plans to stabilize the sector. Additionally, Tanzanian avocados have become more competitive due to zero import duties, further complicating the market for other suppliers.
Mexico, the world’s largest avocado producer and exporter, is facing uncertainty due to the US government’s 25% tariff on Mexican products, including avocados. This has prompted producers in Michoacán and Jalisco to diversify their export markets. While there has been no immediate decline in sales, the long-term effects remain unclear. Producers in Jalisco are expanding avocado production, certifying orchards, and adopting sustainable practices to mitigate risks. These strategies help meet demand from alternative markets, ensure compliance with quality standards, and enhance appeal in eco-conscious markets, reducing dependency on the US and mitigating the impact of the tariffs. They are also targeting Asian markets like China, South Korea and South American countries like Chile and Brazil to reduce reliance on the US market and protect Mexico’s USD 3 billion avocado industry.
California expects a bumper avocado crop in 2025, with a projected total volume of 320 to 350 million pounds (lbs). Harvests have already begun in San Diego and Ventura counties, with San Luis Obispo set to start in about three weeks. While Ventura County’s yield is expected to be 20 to 25% lower than in 2024, San Diego and San Luis Obispo anticipate significant increases. The overall crop quality is better than in 2024, despite some wind damage. Strong demand has driven higher-than-normal prices, averaging USD 1.75/lbs. This price surge is partly due to reduced avocado supply from Mexico, which has faced disruptions from national holidays and impending tariffs. California’s avocado supply is expected to last through the summer, with trees already blooming for next season’s crop.
In Mexico, avocado prices dropped by 3.76% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 3.07 per kilogram (kg) in W13. This decline follows the temporary suspension of the 25% tariff on Mexican avocado exports to the US on March 6, 2025, which had been in effect for only three days. The brief imposition of the tariff caused significant market disruptions, leading many producers to halt harvesting due to uncertainties in pricing and export terms. Even after the suspension, the lingering uncertainty regarding the potential reinstatement of the tariff has continued to impact market dynamics. Producers remain cautious, delaying selling and affecting supply chains, which contributed to the observed price decrease. However, avocado prices increased by 4.42% month-on-month (MoM) and surged by 37.67% year-on-year (YoY). The MoM increase is due to seasonal fluctuations in avocado production, with certain periods experiencing lower yields, thereby tightening supply and elevating prices. The significant YoY surge is due to increased production costs, heightened global demand, and previous trade uncertainties that have influenced market expectations and pricing structures over the past year.
In W13, avocado prices in Peru fell by 6.12% WoW to USD 0.92/kg, marking an 18.58% MoM decline. This decrease is due to the anticipated 23% increase in production for the 2025 season, leading to an oversupply in the market. The heightened competition from other major producers, such as Mexico and Colombia, has further intensified the downward pressure on prices. However, YoY prices experienced a slight increase of 1.10%, due to improved market diversification efforts and better strategic placement of Peruvian avocados in international markets, which have helped sustain demand despite the overall increase in supply.
Spain's avocado prices surged by 11.02% WoW to USD 2.82/kg in W13, with a 30.56% MoM increase and a 16.53% YoY rise. This price surge is due to a significant reduction in available Spanish-origin avocados, with market supplies reported to be 30% lower compared to the previous year, leading to scarcity and driving prices upward. Additionally, early exports from Peru faced quality issues due to insufficient fat content, further limiting supply and contributing to the price increase.
Avocado importers in India should coordinate with market experts to develop better demand forecasting models and regulate the volume of imports. This includes conducting thorough research before entering the market, collaborating with experienced traders, and avoiding over-supply by adjusting shipment quantities. Establishing strategic partnerships with reliable suppliers and focusing on niche, high-quality varieties can also help maintain competitive pricing and reduce the impact of price crashes.
California avocado growers should focus on maximizing their supply chain efficiency to capitalize on the current bumper crop. This involves ensuring timely harvesting, minimizing post-harvest losses, and maintaining consistent quality through improved storage and transportation. They should also explore strategic partnerships with retailers to lock in favorable prices and maintain demand throughout the summer. Additionally, growers should consider diversifying into value-added products, such as guacamole, to extend market reach and mitigate fluctuations caused by market pressures from external suppliers.
Australian avocado exporters should prioritize strengthening relationships with Southeast Asian distributors and retailers to expand their market share. They should also invest in targeted marketing campaigns highlighting the premium quality of Australian avocados, leveraging culinary collaborations with chefs to showcase their versatility. Additionally, exporters should focus on improving supply chain efficiency to ensure freshness and reduce costs, making the product more competitive in high-demand markets like Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. Expanding culinary engagement and maintaining close communication with key stakeholders will help maintain a strong presence in the region.
Sources: Tridge, Abacate International, America-retail, Avocados Australia, Freshplaza, Portalfruticola
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