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In 2024, Belgium produced 4.35 billion liters (L) of milk, which is 34 million L less than in 2023, according to the Belgian Confederation of the Dairy Industry (BCZ). The sector saw 244 dairy farmers exit, reducing the number of farms to 5,640. Meanwhile, the average herd size per farm more than doubled over the past two decades to 80 cows. However, aging remains a major concern, with 55% of farm owners over 55 years old and 88% lacking a successor.
In Saxony, Germany, the number of dairy farms has decreased by about 15% over the past five years, now totaling 1,025. Despite this, the number of cows has remained largely unchanged. The decline in the number of farms is attributed to rising costs for energy, labor, and materials, inflation, and increased bureaucratic hurdles, creating a financial strain on farmers. However, the annual milk yield per cow has risen, with cows producing nearly 600 L more per year in 2024 compared to five years ago. The increase in milk production is due to breeding for healthier, more robust animals. Animal rights groups criticize the treatment of cows in confined systems, but the farmers' association reports a significant decrease in antibiotic use in livestock farming.
In Feb-25, Dutch dairy processors produced 1.05 million tons of milk, averaging 37,800 tons per day, a slight increase from the 37,300 tons per day in Jan-25. However, compared to the same month last year, milk production decreased by 6%, primarily due to the leap year in 2024. The milk's fat content in February was 4.69%, slightly higher than the 4.63% in Feb-24, resulting in a total fat delivery of 49,619 tons, with 1,772 tons per day, up from 1,740 tons in January.
Poland's dairy sector continued to expand, with milk collection reaching 12.7 million tons in 2023 and rising to 13.2 million tons in 2024. However, the Agriculture Minister emphasized the need for industry consolidation to strengthen bargaining power against large retail chains. He also highlighted concerns over EU trade agreements, rising energy costs, and their impact on competitiveness. Poland exported 4.7 million tons of dairy products in 2024, with 67% going to the European Union (EU), primarily Germany, the Czech Republic, and Italy. These exports generated approximately EUR 2 billion.
As of March 10, 2025, daily milk sales by Russian agricultural enterprises reached 58.7 thousand tons, marking a 4% (+2.2 thousand tons) increase from the previous year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The highest sales volumes, exceeding 2 thousand tons, were recorded in Tatarstan, Udmurtia, Krasnodar Krai, and the Voronezh and Kirov regions. The national average milk yield per cow per day rose to 23.2 kilogram (+1.3 kg year-on-year ), with leading regions, including Krasnodar and Stavropol Krai, as well as several western and central oblasts, achieving over 27 kg per cow.
At the beginning of March, raw milk prices in Ukraine declined due to an oversupply of raw milk and weak demand for finished dairy products in the domestic market. The surplus pressured procurement prices, narrowing the price gap between milk grades. The average purchase price for extra-grade milk fell to approximately USD 0.45/kg (-USD 0.01/kg month-on-month), while higher-grade milk dropped to USD 0.44/kg (-USD 0.01/kg), and first-grade milk averaged USD 0.42/kg (-USD 0.01/kg). Outdated processing technology prevents dairy plants from adapting to higher-quality milk, further driving price reductions.
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In Germany, milk prices surged significantly in W11, reaching USD 4.79/kg, reflecting a 3.90% increase week-on-week (WoW) and a 3.23% increase MoM, alongside a 74.82% YoY increase. This price hike is primarily driven by a reduced number of dairy farms (down 15% in the last five years), rising production costs, and challenges such as adverse weather, feed shortages, and diseases like Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) and African Swine Fever (ASF), which have disrupted milk production. Despite these issues, improvements in cow productivity, with cows producing nearly 600 L more per year, have helped mitigate some of the supply shortfall. These factors and a tightening milk supply have contributed to the substantial price rise over the past year.
In Belgium, milk prices increased by 2.96% WoW and 0.79% MoM, reaching USD 3.82/kg in W11, though they were 1.80% lower YoY. The recent drop in prices can be attributed to seasonal improvements in milk production, driven by cooler temperatures, which helped ease supply pressures. However, the decline in overall milk production–down by 34 million L in 2024–played a role in moderating price increases. This decline is tied to factors such as the aging farming population, with 55% of farmers over 55 years old and the exit of 244 farmers from the industry. These changes in the sector, combined with rising costs for farmers and labor shortages, contributed to some upward pressure on prices, despite weaker demand and slower overall production growth in the past year.
In the Netherlands, milk prices increased by 4.91% WoW and 5.86% MoM, reaching USD 2.35/kg in W11, though there was a 35.97% YoY drop. The recent price increases can be attributed to tight milk supplies and unfavorable weather conditions that limited production, keeping prices elevated in the short term. Despite these supply constraints, demand this year appears to be somewhat lower compared to previous years, which explains the YoY decrease in prices. This combination of reduced supply and moderated demand resulted in higher short-term prices but a significant YoY drop, as the market adjusted to less intense demand.
In France, milk prices experienced a 0.77% WoW increase, reaching USD 2.61/kg in W11, following a sharp price drop the previous week. This slight WoW increase is attributed to market adjustments after prices fell significantly. However, prices have dropped substantially over the past weeks, with MoM and YoY declines of 13.86% and 19.20%, respectively. The drop in prices is largely due to lower demand and increased milk supply, which alleviated earlier market constraints and led to a reduction in prices after the initial price spike from tighter supply conditions earlier in the year.
To address the milk production declines seen in Belgium and Germany, particularly with the aging dairy farmer population, it is crucial to implement strategies to attract younger farmers into the sector. Offering financial incentives such as subsidies or grants for sustainable farming practices and modernization could help reduce the barriers to entry. Additionally, promoting alternative milk production methods, such as more robust cow breeds or technological advancements, can help boost productivity and ensure more stable milk supply over the long term.
As Poland faces challenges with increasing production costs and trade issues, industry consolidation could provide a solution. Encouraging mergers and acquisitions among smaller dairy farms would enhance bargaining power, reduce competition, and allow for better economies of scale. Additionally, leveraging advanced technologies and implementing automation in production facilities could help increase efficiency and competitiveness in both domestic and export markets.
Sources: Tridge, Agri Holland, Epravda, Farmer PL, Milk News, Pro Planta, Veeteelt
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