Russian wheat focus: Russian wheat exports fell to one-year low last week

Russian wheat export prices and quotas are changing for the upcoming year. The FOB price at the Black Sea port remains the same, but farmers are withholding sales to minimize tax costs. The export quota for the first half of 2025 has been reduced significantly, and export tariffs have increased by 15%. Additionally, the area for winter grain sowing is smaller this year, and snowfall has raised concerns about crop overwintering. SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025, expecting a decrease in ending stocks in 2024/25, which could further impact exports.

Moscow-based consultancy IKAR said that as of last Friday (December 20), the FOB price of Russian 12.5% protein new wheat at the Black Sea port for delivery at the end of January was $234 per ton, the same as a week ago. Consulting firm SovEcon said that the FOB price of Russian 12.5% protein new wheat at the Black Sea port was $232 to $238 per ton, higher than $227 to $232 per ton a week ago. Analysts at the company said that Russian farmers were reluctant to sell at the end of the year and postponed sales until next year to minimize tax costs. Russian railway grain transporter Rusagrotrans said that the export buying and selling prices of Russian 12.5% protein wheat for delivery in January also remained unchanged at $235 and $240 per ton, respectively. From the international market, the most active March wheat traded on Euronext last Friday Futures closed at 227 euros per ton, down 2.5 euros or 1.00% from a week ago, which was also the second consecutive week of decline; Chicago ...