United States: Five charts that define agricultural markets in 2024

In 2025, global agricultural markets are experiencing significant shifts, as predicted by Reuters analyst Karen Brown. Contrary to expectations, US corn supplies are projected to decrease, leading to an unexpected surge in demand, with speculators shifting from bearish to bullish views. However, soybeans and wheat markets face challenges, with soybeans experiencing the biggest drop in two decades due to overproduction and low demand. Palm oil prices have seen an unusual increase, outpacing soybean oil, amidst expectations of a recovery in production. US soybean exports to China have hit a four-year low, with China turning to Brazil for its soybean needs. Wheat stocks among major exporters are anticipated to reach a 17-year low, yet the market is managing to meet demand through increased exports from Russia, although the condition of winter crops in Russia could potentially disrupt the wheat market.

Here is an analysis of the situation on world agricultural markets in 2025 from Reuters analyst Karen Brown. In 2024, the US corn yield exceeded last year's record by 3%, but by August 2025 domestic supplies will decrease compared to last year, although according to previous forecasts they were supposed to grow by 17%. Low prices throughout the year supported demand for corn, forcing SWOT speculators to switch from record bearish bets in July to bullish ones in November. As of mid-December, net long positions of funds became the largest in two years, which is atypical for speculators trading a near-record harvest in the US. Their optimism about corn is also surprising against the background of pessimistic expectations for soybeans and wheat, so on the eve of 2025 it is necessary to monitor this dynamics. Managed cash net position in SWOT corn futures and options. The most active SWOT corn, wheat, soybean, soybean meal and oil futures have fallen to 4-year lows in recent months. ...