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Brazil's 2024/25 orange harvest in São Paulo and Triângulo/Sudoeste Mineiro has been re-estimated at 223.14 million boxes, reflecting a 3.4% increase from the September forecast, though still 4.0% below May's initial estimate. This atypical season is influenced by a rare fourth flowering, which contributes 9.1% of the total production, with much of this fruit expected to be harvested off-season and weighing less than earlier blooms. While heavy rainfall in October and November helped fruit growth, it came too late to counter earlier drought effects fully. Despite higher production, fruit drop rates are expected to rise to 19% due to citrus greening disease and mechanized harvesting, leading to a more extended harvest period and more significant losses.
Egypt’s 2024/25 orange season has begun amidst intense competition from Morocco and Turkey, which benefit from proximity to Europe and Russia. Despite challenges like the Red Sea logistics crisis impacting Asian routes, Egyptian exporters remain optimistic, citing better volume management that has improved fruit size and quality. While Morocco and Turkey dominate Europe with quicker deliveries, Egypt holds a strong position in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) markets due to its geographic advantages. Strategies like rerouting shipments through European ports are helping address logistical hurdles, allowing Egypt to strengthen its global market presence through quality and adaptability.
In 2024, Russia increased its imports of Chinese oranges by 1.4 times year-on-year (YoY), reaching 48.5 thousand tons valued at USD 46.6 million in the first ten months. This rise offsets a 20% decline in Turkish orange imports, which fell to 161.3 thousand tons. Chinese orange imports in Oct-24 alone reached 1.17 million tons worth USD 11.83 million. Ranking fifth among China’s orange importers, Russia’s growing reliance on Chinese oranges highlights shifting trends in its orange supply chain.
Andalusia's 2024/25 citrus production surged by 19.2% YoY to 2.26 million tons due to improved irrigation from consistent spring and fall rainfall, which eased long-standing water shortages. Oranges accounted for 69% of the total output, with a 22% YoY rise. While global citrus supply is expected to decline across the Northern Hemisphere, Morocco anticipates a 12% increase. Andalusia’s strong performance highlights its critical role in addressing the growing global demand for oranges.
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects Florida's 2024/25 orange production at 12 million boxes, marking a 20% drop from October's forecast and 33% below last season. This includes 5 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and navel varieties) and 7 million boxes of Valencia oranges. Non-Valencia production fell by 1 million boxes, with navel oranges accounting for 150 thousand boxes, while Valencia production declined by 2 million boxes due to high dropping rates. Based on an 8-year regression excluding hurricane-impacted seasons, the forecast underscores ongoing challenges with fruit size and drop in Florida's orange industry.
Orange prices in Spain remained steady at USD 0.31/kg in W50, with a 3.33% MoM increase due to higher demand for larger oranges and those sold with leaves, particularly in premium markets. However, prices dropped by 18.42% YoY due to the dominance of smaller-sized oranges, lower supermarket pricing, and increased competition from upcoming Egyptian supplies.
South Africa's orange prices surged by 80.54% WoW to USD 3.34/kg in W50, reflecting a 40.34% MoM increase due to ongoing high demand for South African citrus, particularly as juice oranges remain available longer than usual. Despite lower Brix values for Spanish Navelina oranges, the sustained availability of quality South African fruit in international markets, particularly India, has supported price increases. This export growth, supported by stronger trade ties and the use of digital platforms like e-commerce and Quick Commerce platforms, which have enhanced the visibility and distribution of South African citrus, further contributed to the price surge.
In W50, orange prices in Egypt dropped by 5% WoW to USD 0.19/kg, with a 9.52% MoM decline due to seasonal adjustments and increased competition from Morocco and Turkey, which have faster deliveries to key markets like Europe and Russia. Despite challenges such as the Red Sea logistics crisis affecting Asian routes, Egypt has improved volume management, leading to better fruit size and quality. However, prices increased by 5.56% YoY due to Egypt's strong position in the GCC markets, where its geographic advantages continue to drive demand and bolster export performance.
Orange prices in the United States (US) increased by 11.43% WoW to USD 1.17/kg in W50. This rise is due to the USDA's 2024/25 forecast, which projects a drop in Florida's orange production, worsening supply concerns. The decline in production, particularly with Valencia oranges facing high dropping rates and non-Valencia varieties experiencing a decrease in volume, has led to a tightening of the market. However, prices fell by 4.88% MoM and 14.60% YoY due to the high availability of fruit from previous months, which had put downward pressure on prices, and competition from other producing regions. Despite the ongoing challenges in Florida's orange industry, the increased supply from other areas helped moderate price increases in the market.
Egyptian orange exporters should continue to optimize their logistics by exploring alternative shipping routes and focusing on European port rerouting strategies. By improving the efficiency of their supply chain, they can mitigate the impacts of regional logistics crises and shorten delivery times to key markets. Additionally, strengthening relationships with distributors in GCC markets will solidify Egypt's position in these regions while maintaining its competitive edge in terms of product quality. Growers and exporters can also capitalize on volume management strategies to maintain fruit size and quality, meeting the demands of global consumers.
Florida’s orange growers should invest in advanced harvesting methods and crop management strategies to minimize fruit drop and enhance fruit size. Growers can improve yields and reduce losses by using techniques such as controlled irrigation, selective thinning, and early harvesting of affected varieties. Additionally, integrating precision agriculture technologies to monitor tree health and environmental conditions will help prevent further production declines. These efforts will ensure better fruit quality and maintain a stable market presence despite current challenges.
Chinese orange exporters should strengthen their presence in the Russian market by securing long-term partnerships with key distributors and optimizing logistics to ensure consistent supply. To stay competitive, exporters can offer tailored packaging and marketing strategies that highlight the freshness and quality of their oranges. Additionally, enhancing collaboration with Russian retailers to address consumer preferences will help expand market share and meet growing demand.
Sources: Tridge, Agroinformacion, Agrimaroc, Cacitrusmutual, Foodmate, Freshplaza, MXfruit, USDA
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