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The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations highlights avocados as a potential solution to global food insecurity, particularly in Colombia, where around 30% of the population faces food shortages. Colombia's avocado industry has experienced significant growth, with the production area expanding by 431% from 2010 to 2022, leading to increased exports. Despite challenges like deforestation, price volatility, and climate change, Colombia's access to abundant agricultural land and water resources positions it as a key player in addressing global food demands. FAO supports sustainable avocado production through initiatives such as the "Responsible Fruits" project, aiming to boost market growth, particularly in Asia.
In Chania, Greece, a surge in avocado imports from Turkey and Africa has led to a price decrease of USD 0.21 to 0.31 per kilogram (EUR 0.20 to 0.30/kg) for local producers since mid-Oct-24. Prices for large avocados, previously between USD 2.59 to 2.69/kg (EUR 2.50 to 2.60/kg), have dropped to USD 2.18 to 2.38/kg (EUR 2.10 to 2.30/kg). Despite a high-quality and high harvest this year, producers are advised to hold off selling until after Christmas, when imports are expected to decline, potentially leading to a price recovery. Local producers and cooperatives are urging stricter import controls to protect the domestic avocado industry, highlighting the crop's importance as a key agricultural product in the region.
Moroccan avocado exports have performed well since the launch of the Hass campaign in late Oct-24, with 30 thousand metric tons (mt) shipped so far, representing one-third of the season's volume and 50% of last year's total exports. Most exports consist of the Hass variety, with Europe favoring larger sizes (12 to 20). While the season began with lower prices due to abundant production and competition, prices are expected to rise after the New Year as demand increases in Europe. Moroccan avocado production has grown from 60 thousand mt last season to an estimated 90 to 100 thousand mt this season, with most production concentrated along the Atlantic coast from Kenitra to Larache.
Peru’s avocado exports reached USD 1.23 billion from Jan-24 to Oct-24, significantly increasing agricultural export sales. Overall, agricultural exports increased by 23.2% year-on-year (YoY), totaling USD 9.36 billion compared to the previous year. Avocados, blueberries, and coffee played a key role in this growth. The United States (US) remains the largest market for Peruvian exports, with avocados strengthening Peru’s position in global markets.
Mexico's avocado prices increased by 0.84% week-on-week (WoW) to USD 2.39/kg in W50, with a 6.70% YoY increase. This is due to improved demand in global markets as holiday-related consumption surged. Additionally, tighter global supply conditions supported the price recovery. However, month-on-month (MoM) prices fell by 6.64% due to the ongoing harvest season, which continued to contribute to high supply, which exerts downward pressure on overall market prices.
Avocado prices in Peru increased by 2.27% WoW to USD 1.35/kg in W50, surging 18.42% MoM due to sustained European demand for premium-quality avocados. While favorable growing conditions improved supply consistency, strong demand coupled with the seasonal transition and preparations for the upcoming harvest cycle contributed to the price increase. However, prices dropped by 34.15% YoY due to intensified competition from Mexico in key export markets, particularly the US, which has pressured Peruvian prices. Additionally, persistent concerns over cadmium levels and logistical challenges have limited Peru's ability to achieve premium pricing in international markets.
In Spain, avocado prices decreased by 1.08% WoW to USD 1.84/kg in W50 due to increased supply as the harvesting season progressed, resulting in greater availability in local markets and putting slight downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, prices rose by 9.52% MoM and 17.20% YoY. This increase was due to a stronger demand for locally produced avocados and a reduction in earlier oversupply conditions. Furthermore, water shortages and rising production costs also contributed to the YoY price increase, as producers adjusted their prices to reflect these challenges while maintaining quality standards for export and local consumption.
In Chile, avocado prices slightly dropped by 0.56% WoW and decreased 4.29% YoY to USD 3.57/kg in W50, with no MoM change. This is due to increasing market availability driven by the anticipated rise in production, which has begun to exert downward pressure on prices. While favorable weather conditions and abundant rainfall support strong 2024/25 marketing year (MY) production prospects, the market is adjusting to higher supply volumes, particularly from the Valparaíso region. Additionally, steady export activity has maintained supply stability but has not been enough to offset the broader price correction.
Avocado producers in Chania should delay selling their harvest until after the Christmas season to avoid competing with increased imports. Producers can capitalize on the anticipated price recovery by aligning their sales with the expected decline in import volumes. Additionally, producers should focus on promoting the superior quality of their locally grown avocados to differentiate them in the market and protect their market share. Cooperatives can also collaborate to develop strategies for better managing supply and demand cycles.
Moroccan avocado exporters should strategically plan shipments to Europe, focusing on larger Hass varieties as demand increases post-New Year. By aligning exports with this demand shift, exporters can maximize profitability as prices are expected to rise. Additionally, enhancing packaging and marketing efforts to emphasize the quality of Moroccan avocados will help secure a premium position in the competitive European market.
Colombian avocado producers should focus on scaling up sustainable farming practices to meet the growing global demand, especially in Asia, where market growth is strong. Farmers can ensure both environmental sustainability and higher export volumes by aligning production with the "Responsible Fruits" project. Strengthening supply chains and enhancing the resilience of avocado farming against climate risks will help Colombia solidify its role in addressing food insecurity while capitalizing on international market opportunities.
Sources: Tridge, Blueberries Consulting, Freshplaza, Haniotika, Moroccan Avocado Association (MAVA), MXfruit
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