Record Growth in Potato Production in Türkiye is Expected Amid Shortage Crisis

Türkiye is forecasted to register a record increase in its potato planting area in 2023, which will simultaneously generate a sharp increase in potato production. Stimulated by the high international and domestic prices, farmers have decided to increase potato acreage substantially.

The increase in potato acreage still cannot be calculated. However, the increase in potato seed imports into the country has made it clear that there will be a record increase in the planting areas. According to Türkish customs data, in the first four months of 2023, Türkiye imported 28.5 thousand mt of seed potatoes, which is 91% more than the volume of imports for the same period in 2022 and a new import record. The Netherlands was the leading supplier of seed potatoes to Türkiye, with 79% of the total imports. UK, France, Germany, and Belgium contributed the remaining 21%.

The expected sharp increase in potato production in Türkiye is a reaction to the price instability that the country experienced. Potato prices, particularly in the processing sector, have skyrocketed in Türkiye and the entire European and Central Asia regions. In response to the rapid growth of domestic potato prices, the Turkish government implemented a ban on potato exports in 2023, which also included onions. As a result, potato exports from Türkiye in the first fourth months of 2023 amounted to less than 13 thousand mt, a significant decrease compared to the 113 thousand mt exported during the same period the previous year.

Source: Tridge

The potato wholesale price in Türkiye has spiked over the last two years. Based on Tridge price data monitoring, the wholesale price of potatoes in Türkiye soared 191.89% YoY up to USD 0.71/kg in W1 of January 2023. Rising production costs and problems in the supply chain, with limited availability, were the main reasons for the price hike. By May-23, despite the government’s efforts to curve local prices, the wholesale price reached a historic high of USD 0.93/kg. Limited availability and increasing global demand have pushed prices further up.

Due to the anticipated high potato production in Türkiye in 2023, a significant decrease in potato prices can be expected, likely leading to an expansion in export destinations. The output increase will likely end the export ban so that international sales can expand and simultaneously support the decrease in local prices. This will be a great opportunity for the region’s net potato importers, such as Georgia and Uzbekistan, to diversify their imports. Despite being one of the largest importers of potatoes globally, Uzbekistan has not previously imported substantial quantities from Türkiye.

Source: Tridge

Another very important factor that supposes a substantial increase in potato exports from Türkiye is the recent devaluation of the Turkish currency. The Turkish lira has experienced another significant decline, with a 14% decrease in value against the USD. Remarkably, just two years ago, one USD was equivalent to 8.67 Turkish lira, whereas today, it is valued at 23.37 lira, indicating a 2.7-fold depreciation over this period.

The devaluation of the local currency invariably stimulates exports while severely constraining import possibilities. Despite the relatively stable exchange rate, fruit and vegetable exports from Türkiye increased by 10% in the first four months of 2023. Following the currency devaluation, we can anticipate a renewed surge in the volume of exports of fresh fruits and vegetables. This Turkish lira collapse is expected to significantly impact the potato trade across the entire region, encompassing Central Asia, the Caucasus, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and even the European Union.