European Potato Market 2024: Climate Challenges, Rising Costs, and Sustainability Concerns

The European potato market in 2024 has faced significant challenges driven by climate-related disruptions, rising production costs, and shifting trade pathways. These factors have impacted farmers and raised concerns about the region’s long-term sustainability of potato production.

Climate Challenges and Production Decline

Europe’s potato farmers have struggled with adverse weather conditions this year, including heavy and persistent rainfall. According to the North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG), the 2024/25 planting season was delayed by over ten weeks in key regions like Belgium and Southern Netherlands, with many crops planted in poor soil conditions. These unfavorable conditions, coupled with one of the highest late blight pressures in recent history, have led to a forecasted 9% year-on-year (YoY) decline in potato production compared to 2023. The average yield in the NEPG zone was 43.8 metric tons (mt) per hectare (ha), slightly below the five-year average of 44.4 mt/ha.

While the total potato sown area in Germany, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands increased by 7.2% YoY, production costs have risen sharply. Farmers have faced higher expenses for seed treatment, late blight control, and storage, with production costs increasing by at least EUR 1,000/ha compared to last year. Despite these efforts, the wet conditions have resulted in lower yields and quality, further straining profitability.

Economic Pressures and Market Trends

The economic pressures on potato farmers are evident in the current market situation. The wholesale price of potatoes in the Netherlands bounced back in Nov-24, increasing by 80% month-on-month (MoM) to USD 0.18 per kilogram (kg), according to Tridge’s latest Vegetable Report. Compared to the same period last year, the price of fresh common potatoes in the Netherlands is lower by 21.73% YoY. Lower prices indicate a more successful harvest than the 2023 season. Despite this, the rising costs and risks associated with potato farming deter smaller producers, leading to consolidation. Larger, better-equipped farms are increasingly dominating the market, as they are better positioned to manage financial and operational challenges. In Poland, according to the Tridge Index Change and Forecast, prices of fresh common potato have reached a record high in the past two years, reaching 89.88 index in W1 of Dec-24. Due to adverse weather - a dry summer and sudden showers - the quality and quantity of the Polish potato harvest has diminished , justifying price increases. Tridge expects a further increase of indices of common potato in Poland, up to 92.05 in Jan-25.

On the other hand, the Spanish potato market has been more erratic in recent years, marked by sharp price fluctuations. Still, the current situation is below previous price spikes in Sep-24, and the latest price index is held at 103.59 in W1 of Dec-24, while it is anticipated to surge in upcoming weeks.

Figure 1. Tridge Index Change and Forecast of Fresh Common Potato in Poland

Source: Tridge

Figure 2. Tridge Index Change and Forecast of Fresh Common Potato in Spain

* This index is based on the wholesale price of Fresh Monalisa Potatoes sold in Spain

Source: Tridge

Sustainability and Future Outlook

The sustainability of potato farming in Europe is under threat. Late blight remains a major concern, with the cost of fungicides to combat the disease estimated at EUR 7 million annually in Spain alone. Overusing certain fungicides has also led to resistance, prompting the need for alternative solutions. Spanish agricultural experts advocate for integrated strategies, including using resistant potato varieties, improved irrigation practices, and combining complementary fungicides.

Looking ahead, the industry must adapt to the growing impacts of climate change. Innovations like vertical farming and sustainable agricultural practices offer potential solutions to enhance resilience. However, without significant investment and policy support, the risks and costs may continue to push smaller producers out of the market, potentially reducing overall production and threatening food security.

In conclusion, the European potato market in 2024 reflects global agriculture's broader challenges: climate change, rising costs, and the need for sustainable practices. Addressing these issues will be critical to ensuring the long-term viability of potato farming in the region.