US Tariffs on Brazilian Seafood Ripple Through the Supply Chain

The United States’ (US) recent 50% tariff on a range of Brazilian imports is expected to cause major disruption across agricultural sectors, with the seafood trade facing especially severe impacts 

According to an analysis from the University of Illinois, seafood represents a substantial 56% of the export value among certain key agricultural products hit by the new duties. This policy threatens to reshape a critical trade relationship, leading to higher prices for American consumers, destabilizing Brazilian producers, and altering the dynamics of the global seafood market.

Tridge has closely tracked the tariff’s impact on US-Brazil trade, with previous analyses focusing on coffee and beef.

Brazil's Critical Export Market is at Risk

The US is the most crucial export market for Brazilian seafood. In 2023, the US accounted for a 87% of Brazil's exports of "Fish fillets and other fish meat (under the HS code 0304),"  valued at USD 22 million, according to data from TrendEconomy, a global trade data platform. Recent data indicate a significant increase in Brazil's seafood exports to the US. According to a report from the Brazilian government, exports from Brazilian fish farming in the first half of 2024 reached USD 23.7 million, representing 96% of the total exports for the entire year of 2023. Additionally, according to Tridge trade data, the US import value of frozen rock lobster reached USD 32.6 million, representing a significant 33.6% year-over-year (YoY) increase. The new 50% tariff effectively acts as a barrier, making Brazilian seafood prohibitively expensive for American importers. Consequently, Brazilian exporters face the challenging task of finding alternative markets, a process complicated by differing quality standards, logistical challenges, and established trade relationships. This sudden market loss jeopardizes the viability of many Brazilian fishing and aquaculture operations that have been tailored to serve American demand.

Figure 1. Top 10 Tradeflows of Frozen Rock Lobsters 

Source: Tridge Trade Data

Expected Higher Prices for American Consumers

For consumers in the US, the tariffs will likely translate to higher prices at the seafood counter. According to Tridge import price data, prices have been rising since Feb-25, peaking at USD 46.88 per kilogram (kg) in W1 of Mar-25. As the cost of importing from a major supplier like Brazil increases, wholesalers and retailers will pass these expenses down the supply chain. While the US can turn to other seafood-producing nations, shifting sourcing is neither immediate nor seamless. Alternative suppliers may not have the capacity to fill the void left by Brazil, or their products may come at a higher cost, contributing to inflationary pressures on food prices.

Figure 2. Import Prices of Frozen Rock Lobster to United States by Company

Source: Tridge Market Brief

The long-term consequences for production are twofold. In Brazil, the seafood industry, which had ambitions to expand its exports to North America significantly, now faces a severe contraction. Producers may be forced to scale back operations, impacting local economies and employment. Conversely, while the tariffs may be intended to protect domestic US fisheries, it is uncertain whether the American industry can ramp up production swiftly enough to meet demand without significant price increases. This trade dispute introduces a wave of uncertainty, and its repercussions will be felt from the fishing fleets in Brazil to the dinner tables in America.