Brazil's Rapid Pecan Expansion Paying Dividends

The Brazilian pecan industry has made significant progress in establishing itself as a major player in the global market. In the 2010s, commercial pecan plantings began to take off and, since these trees take 5 to 7 years to produce substantial yields, production has skyrocketed from virtually nothing to an estimated 7,000 mt in 2023. Located in Rio Grande do Sul, most of the new orchards account for about 70% of Brazil's pecan production. Currently, there are roughly 7,000 hectares of pecan trees in Rio Grande do Sul, with 5,000 hectares already producing significant yields.

As pecan production and availability increase, Brazilian producers will need to explore new markets. Although domestic consumption of pecans has historically been low, estimated at only around 1,750 mt on a kernel (3,500 mt in-shell) basis, the Brazilian Pecan Institute (IBPecan) expects this market to grow significantly, with domestic consumption predicted to reach 4,500 mt on an in-shell basis (2,250 mt on a kernel basis) by 2023. Pecans have the advantage of having a thin shell, which can be easily cracked by pushing two nuts against each other. This presents an opportunity for farmers to sell part of their crop directly to consumers.

While expanding the domestic market remains a priority, Brazil is expected to take a more active role in the export market in 2023. In 2022, Brazil exported 96 mt of pecans worth USD 483,000, which was similar to the previous year's figures. However, prior to these years, there were almost no exports. The pecan harvest, which began in April, will continue until June, with peak exports expected between August and October based on previous export data.

While Brazil is expected to be a net exporter of pecans in 2023, the country will also need to keep pecans in storage due to its biannual production cycle. Pecans, like pistachios and some other nuts, produce in an alternate bearing cycle, meaning a large crop is normally followed by a smaller crop. For instance, in 2022, production was only 3,000 mt in-shell, about half of the previous year's crop of 6,000 mt, although the drought in Brazil's main growing areas further exacerbated the drop in production. Nonetheless, 2023 will be a good test run for future exports, as Brazilian suppliers explore new export markets in anticipation of rapid future expansion.

Source: Tridge, IBPecan, IBGE, INC

The national area planted under pecans could reach as much as 25-30,000 ha by 2030 according to the Brazilian Pecan Insitute (IBPecan). This comes after the signing of a technical and co-operational agreement between IBPecan and the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa), which provides technical support to farmers and promotes pecan production. If the targets of this program are reached, Brazilian pecans could become a major player in the export market. Brazil is already the world’s 4th largest pecan producer but its production of 7,000 mt is far behind Mexico (which produced 145,000 mt in 2022), the US (138,000 mt in 2022), and South Africa (estimated at around 30,000 mt in 2023). China’s pecan production has also increased exponentially over the last years and could challenge Brazil for the 4th spot.