US Department of Agriculture Lowers Russia's Wheat Export Forecast

The US Department of Agriculture has revised its forecast for Russia's wheat exports in the 2024/25 season, reducing it by 1 million tons to 46 million tons, and anticipates the country's grain export quota to hit a five-year low in the second half of the season. The USDA also notes a decrease in Russia's wheat harvest and initial stocks compared to the previous year, despite a record export performance in the first half of the marketing year. To stabilize domestic supplies and control price increases, Russia has implemented an export quota and floating export duty in the latter half of the season, potentially impacting major importers like Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Saudi Arabia.

The US Department of Agriculture has lowered its forecast for wheat exports from Russia in the 2024/25 season by 1 million tons, to 46 million tons (excluding Crimea and new regions). In the December review, the forecast was also reduced by 1 million tons. The forecast for exports from the closest competitor, the EU countries, has not changed and is 29 million tons. The estimate for feed grain exports from Russia has been slightly increased: from 6.2 million tons to 6.23 million tons. “The world's largest wheat exporter recently announced that its grain export quota in the second half of 2024/25 will be the lowest in the past five years,” the US agricultural department’s review says. “The export quota will be set at 10.6 million tons from February 15 to June 30, 2025, and will lead to a significant slowdown in the pace of wheat exports from Russia.” The wheat harvest in Russia in 2024 is estimated at 81.5 million tons (82.4 million tons, according to Rosstat, excluding new ...