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In Greece, the government’s plan to mandate electronic invoicing for agricultural products by Apr-25 and olive oil by Oct-25 has sparked debate. The initiative aims to curb tax evasion and fraud by tracking oil movement and quantities, but opinions are divided. Supporters believe it will combat illicit practices like adulteration, while critics fear challenges in enforcement. A key issue is the ongoing use of 17-kilogram (kg) cans, which were banned for retail in 2017 but still common for personal use. This fuels informal market activity, accounting for nearly 70% of local olive oil flow. The government insists the policy targets commercial sales, not private consumption.
In Dec-24, Spain's olive oil sector reported a production of 590,936 metric tons (mt), contributing to an accumulated total of 883,588 mt. The province of Jaén alone produced 298,157 mt during this period. The overall production is expected to exceed the initial forecast, with predictions indicating a final output surpassing 900,000 mt by the end of the campaign, which runs through Mar-25. Olive oil market dynamics are also influenced by increased product movements, with 87,249 mt exported. However, there remains a need for further growth in shipments to balance production levels. As of Dec-24, total olive oil stocks stood at 823,729 mt, with the majority (683,854 mt) held in mills.
Córdoba's olive oil campaign has seen positive progress, with production reaching 175,815 mt by the third month, accounting for 65% of the total forecasted output of 271,000 mt. Despite challenges such as a lack of rainfall in Dec-24 and labor shortages in traditional olive groves, regions like Campiña and Guadiato have made good progress, with up to 80% of the harvest collected. However, overall yields are down by 2% to 3% compared to last year. National production has surpassed 883,000 mt, showing a significant increase. The sector remains cautious about future campaigns due to unpredictable climate conditions that may affect both yields and prices.
Andalusia set a historic record in olive oil exports between Jan-24 and Oct-24, reaching USD 4.1 billion (EUR 3.879 billion), a 46% year-on-year (YoY) increase. The United States (US) emerged as the top market with 66% growth, generating USD 780 million, while Australia doubled its imports to USD 170 million. Sevilla led regional exports, contributing 51% of the total, while Almeria showed a 187% growth. Italy, France, and Portugal also saw increased imports. Extra virgin olive oil accounted for 63% of sales, reflecting Andalusia's commitment to quality. Initiatives by Andalucía TRADE have supported global diversification, reinforcing the region's leadership in the olive oil sector.
Malaga's olive oil exports surged by 50% in the first ten months of 2024, setting a record at USD 634 million (EUR 593 million). The province ranked third in Andalusia, contributing 15.3% of the region's total olive oil exports, behind Sevilla (USD 2.12 billion) and Cordoba (USD 725 million). The US led as the top destination, accounting for 34% of Malaga's exports with a 56% YoY increase, followed by Italy, France, and Germany. Notably, exports to China tripled, growing by 222%, while Serbia, Poland, and the Czech Republic also saw exponential growth. Extra virgin olive oil dominated with 81% of export sales. These figures contributed to Andalusia's record-breaking olive oil exports of USD 4.3 billion, cementing the region as a global leader in "liquid gold" sales and a key driver of Spain’s agri-food sector.
Syria’s efforts to boost olive oil exports following the overthrow of its former president face hurdles despite the promise of free-market reforms. The new government has pledged to re-evaluate economic policies and lift restrictions on trade, including the 2023 export ban that limited licenses to government-approved companies. With production forecasted at 55,000 mt against a domestic consumption of 48,000 mt, a surplus of olive oil has driven the push to export 10,000 mt. However, challenges persist, including political instability, uneven rainfall, pest infestations, and fragmented control over olive-growing regions, particularly in the northwest.
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From W52 2024 to W3 2025, Spanish olive oil prices remained steady at around USD 4.59/kg. Prices have been relatively stable, with no change in month-on-month (MoM) prices and a minor week-on-week (WoW) decline of -0.43%. However, the YoY change is notable, with a significant 53.35% decrease from W3 2024, when the price stood at USD 9.84/kg. This sharp drop can be attributed to the drastic price increases in early 2024, which prompted the Spanish government to reduce taxes on olive oil, lowering the VAT to 4% from the previous 10%, thus stabilizing the market.
Olive oil prices in Italy have dropped to USD 9.60/kg in W3, reflecting a YoY decline of 10.53%, with a recent WoW drop of 2.14% and a MoM decrease of 4.38%. This decline is primarily due to extreme weather over the past year, including excessive heat, which disrupted olive production and reduced supply. However, as temperatures cooled with the onset of winter, olive yields began recovering in Italy and other key producing countries, boosting global supply and driving prices down. The current price trend reflects a stabilization influenced by improved production conditions and global market recovery.
Olive oil prices in Portugal have decreased to USD 7.38/kg in W3, reflecting a significant YoY drop of 34.69%. The recent WoW and MoM drops of 2.25% and 2.64%, respectively, are mainly driven by currency exchange rate fluctuations, with a lower USD value per EUR impacting the price in USD. Despite these minor fluctuations, the price of olive oil has remained relatively stable over the past month in EUR terms. The YoY decrease is attributed to easing European supply conditions, as the olive oil market has been experiencing record-high prices in recent years due to tight supply. As supply improves in major olive oil-producing countries, including Portugal, prices have begun to ease and stabilize.
Olive oil prices in Greece amounted to USD 4.56/kg in W3, a WoW rise of 3.64% and a MoM increase of 7.29%. Unlike other top-producing countries that have experienced recent price declines, Greece's price increase is attributed to market stabilization after a rapid price drop in the preceding weeks. Prices are expected to remain volatile in the upcoming weeks as supply stabilizes and production costs remain high. Additionally, the olive oil adulteration has impacted both pricing and the reputation of Greek olive oil. While prices have risen in recent weeks, the YoY drop of 53.99% reflects an overall lower price compared to last year, as supply has increased over the past six months following a challenging period of tight supply. As European supply continues to improve, pricing is beginning to ease.
Olive oil prices in Tunisia dropped to USD 3.88/kg in W3, reflecting a WoW decrease of 9.56% and a MoM drop of 9.77%. After relatively stable pricing in the previous weeks, the price decline in W3 is primarily attributed to higher local supply and increased competition from other olive oil-producing countries. Despite this drop, Tunisia's pricing remains one of the lowest among top olive oil-producing regions. If these low price levels persist, Tunisia could gain a competitive advantage in the market, potentially driving increased demand for its olive oil.
Several key olive oil producers are experiencing surplus production, which may put downward pressure on prices. However, this excess presents an opportunity for export expansion. Producers should target emerging markets in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where demand for olive oil is growing, to offset price declines in mature markets. Additionally, partnerships with international distributors and local importers can help build new export channels and stabilize supply chains.
Olive oil production faces ongoing risks due to climate variability, such as droughts and extreme temperatures, which impact yields and pricing stability. Producers should invest in climate-resilient agriculture practices and collaborate with governments on policies aimed at mitigating climate impacts. Supply chain partners can support these efforts by diversifying sourcing regions and ensuring flexibility in production to adjust to fluctuating conditions.
Sources: Tridge, Agronoma, Ekathimerini, El Correo, Empresa Exterior, Interpresas, La Vanguardia, Oils and Fats International, SUR in English
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