Uzbekistan's Remarkable Return to the Global Fresh Apricot Market in 2023

The global market for fresh apricots is witnessing significant shifts in 2023, with Uzbekistan emerging as a potential contender to become the second-largest exporter of fresh apricots.

In Figure 1 below, Uzbekistan is in the top three fresh apricot-producing countries, along with Türkiye and Iran. Uzbekistan is expected to achieve a record apricot crop in 2023, leading to a surge in exports. Early estimates indicate that Uzbekistan has already surpassed its previous export records, having sold approximately 40 thousand tons of fresh apricots in the first two months of the season, a 5.4 times increase compared to the same period in 2022.

Figure 1: Top 3 Fresh Apricot Producers in the World

Source: Tridge

Apricot harvests of historically major exporting countries Italy and Spain have been lower than anticipated in 2023, falling below the average of recent years. This decrease in European production has created a favorable market opportunity for Uzbekistan to capitalize on its increased export potential.

In Figure 2, a mixed trend can be seen in fresh apricot exports from Uzbekistan between 2018 and 2023. The data shows a positive growth trajectory from 2018 to 2020, with exports reaching 74.5 thousand tons. However, there was a sharp decline in 2021 and 2022, with exports plummeting to 9.5 thousand tons and 5.8 thousand tons, respectively. The industry experienced a significant rebound in 2023, with projected exports of 70 thousand tons, indicating a promising recovery. Factors such as weather conditions, market dynamics, global pandemic and competition likely influenced these fluctuations.

Uzbekistan's fresh apricots gained a competitive edge due to their comparatively lower prices. In contrast, European apricot prices remain relatively high, contributing to increased demand for Uzbekistan's affordable produce. Economic challenges and declining post-pandemic purchasing power in most of the countries have further enhanced the need for cost-effective products, making Uzbekistan’s apricots favorably positioned in this market segment.

With its record harvest and robust export performance, Uzbekistan is projected to secure the position as the second-largest exporter of fresh apricots in 2023 (See Figure 2). While Spain is likely to export no more than 60 thousand tons and Italy approximately 45 thousand tons, Uzbekistan's exports may reach 65 to 70 thousand tons, potentially exceeding 75 thousand tons under favorable conditions.

The record apricot harvest in Uzbekistan not only affects the fresh apricot market but also puts pressure on the dried apricot market. Increased production of dried apricots in Uzbekistan is expected to intensify competition in the dried fruit sector, influencing market dynamics throughout the season.

The 2023 fresh apricot market is witnessing significant shifts, with Uzbekistan poised to become a major player in global exports. Factors such as record harvests, competitive pricing, and decreased European production contribute to this emerging trend. However, challenges persist, including geopolitical uncertainties and the need to maintain consistent quality standards and supply chain efficiency. Industry stakeholders should closely monitor these trends and leverage the opportunities presented by Uzbekistan's rising prominence in the fresh apricot market.