Thaw in U.S.–China Tariffs Brings Export Boom—but Not a Strategic Reversal

The 90-day pause on United States (US)-China agricultural tariffs, effective from May 14 to August 11, 2025, has brought a rare moment of relief to a trade relationship that has been battered by years of escalating duties and retaliatory measures. Yet, while headlines focus on the immediate boost for US farmers, the real issue is how China’s import strategy and the global supply chains are evolving in response to both short-term incentives and long-term uncertainty.

A Tactical Surge, Not a Strategic Shift

With China slashing its retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural goods from 125% to 10%, the economics of US farm exports to China have shifted overnight. Quick to seize the opportunity, Chinese buyers have accelerated purchases of US soybeans, corn, and pork, frontloading shipments before the tariff window potentially closes in Aug-25. In the last two weeks of May-25 alone, Chinese importers booked over 1.2 million metric tons (mmt) of US soybeans—more than double the volume from the same period last year, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) export data. This surge has led to a noticeable uptick in US agricultural exports, with container volumes at US ports expected to rise through July. On the other side of the trade equation, the US has also temporarily reduced its tariffs on Chinese goods, lowering combined rates from as high as 145% to 30% during the same 90-day period. This mutual easing of tariffs is intended to create space for further negotiations, but both sides remain cautious, aware that these rates could quickly return to previous highs if talks stall.

Nevertheless, this surge is tactical, not strategic. Chinese importers are rushing to secure US commodities at lower prices. For example, soybeans are now up to USD 80 per metric ton (mt) cheaper than before the pause. Despite this surge, the broader trend remains clear: China is continuing to diversify its agricultural suppliers.. Over the past several years, China has steadily increased its agricultural imports from Brazil, Argentina, and Australia, reducing its reliance on the US and hedging against future trade shocks. In 2024, the US market share of China’s soybean imports fell to 21%, down from 40% in 2016, as Brazil’s dominance grew. As of the end of May-25, China’s soybean imports have been increasing, and the price of soybean meal in China has fallen by more than 14% month-over-month (MoM) in May-25, sliding to USD 403.86 per metric ton (mt). If the trend continues, soybean supply is expected to push prices down further in June. Aside from increased US imports, one of the main reasons for the price decrease is the record soybean harvests in Brazil with 170 million metric tons (mmt), up from 155 mmt last year, and 49 mmt in Argentina. These Latin American countries are boosting global supplies of soybeans, soybean oil, and meal. This surge has driven down prices in major markets, such as China.

On the other hand, domestic corn prices in China skyrocketed in W3 of Mar-25, reaching USD 0.56/kg, a current record high for 2025. Since then, Chinese domestic corn prices have been plummeting due to improved supply, decreasing to USD 0.42 in W1 of May-25, according to the Tridge Eye price data. 

Figure 1. Domestic Prices of Maize in China and Brazil

Source: Tridge Eye

Market Impacts and Adjustments of Freight and Logistics

The tariff war and subsequent pause have also upended global logistics. According to Tridge,  China-US West Coast ocean freight rates plunged 44.55% between Feb-25 and Apr-25 as US importers canceled orders in response to steep tariffs. Now, with the pause in effect, there’s a rush to move goods before tariffs snap back, straining port infrastructure and creating the risk of congestion and equipment shortages. Meanwhile, between February and April 2025, shipping volumes between Southeast Asia and the US rose by 20% due to frontloading as global supply chains scrambled to adapt.

Global Realignment and Non-Tariff Barriers

The 90-day pause is also prompting a broader realignment of global trade routes. As China diversifies its sourcing, US exporters face stiffer competition not just from Brazil and Argentina but from a host of emerging suppliers. In the soybean market, Brazil has solidified its position as China’s top supplier, exporting a record 170 mmt in the latest harvest—up from 155 mmt the previous year. This surge has allowed Brazil to capture over 60% of China’s soybean import market, while the US share has dropped to just 21% in 2024. Argentina, too, has increased its soybean exports, contributing 49 mmt and further crowding the market.

Beyond these established players, several emerging suppliers are gaining ground. For soybeans, Paraguay has steadily increased its exports to China, shipping over 6 mmt in 2024, a nearly 15% YoY increase, according to Tridge trade data. In the beef sector, Australia has re-emerged as a major competitor after resolving previous trade restrictions, with beef exports to China rising by 18% YoY in Q1 2025. Uruguay and New Zealand are also notable emerging suppliers. Uruguay’s beef exports to China grew by 12% YoY in early 2025, while New Zealand has expanded both beef and dairy shipments, leveraging favorable trade agreements and competitive pricing.

In the corn market, South Africa and Ukraine have become increasingly important. South Africa’s corn exports to China reached nearly 1 mmt in the 2024/25 season, while Ukraine, despite ongoing challenges, remains a significant supplier of both corn and barley to China.

At the same time, China’s import strategy is increasingly varied, involving not just tariffs but also non-tariff measures and regulatory controls. For example, the expiration of export registrations for US meat plants and the introduction of new anti-dumping probes have further complicated the trade landscape.

Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Uncertainty

For US farmers, the tariff pause offers a welcome, if fleeting, reprieve. However, the underlying reality is that China’s import behavior is now shaped by a desire for resilience and flexibility rather than just price. The surge in US shipments may be dramatic, but it is likely to be short-lived unless a more durable trade agreement is reached. As global supply chains continue to realign, and as China deepens its relationships with alternative suppliers, the US share of China’s agricultural imports may never fully recover to pre-trade war levels.

The 90-day tariff pause is best understood as a tactical maneuver in a much larger, ongoing realignment of global agricultural trade. While it has temporarily revived US exports to China, it has also underscored the fragility and complexity of today’s supply chains. For lasting progress, both sides must look beyond short-term fixes and commit to transparent, long-term agreements that provide certainty for producers, importers, and consumers alike. Until then, the world’s agricultural markets will remain in a state of flux—where opportunity and risk are inseparable and where China’s import strategy is as much about the future as it is about the present.

Editor’s Note:

The 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China has triggered a temporary spike in U.S. agricultural exports, particularly soybeans and corn. For now, China is enjoying stabilized domestic prices, thanks to the thaw—soybean meal is down over 14% month-over-month, and corn prices have sharply retreated from record highs. But beneath the surface, China’s long-term strategy is clear: diversify away from U.S. dependence.

Record harvests in Brazil and Argentina, alongside rising imports from Paraguay, Uruguay, and South Africa, show that global supply chains are being restructured in real time. The benefits of open, diversified trade relationships are flowing increasingly toward countries embracing free trade—not necessarily to the U.S. The tariff break is a tactical window, not a strategic pivot. Unless durable agreements emerge, the gains for American exporters may prove fleeting, while others consolidate their position in the evolving global agrifood landscape.